UDI 0-2 ASR · 62% CHA 2-2 ORL · 42% AAL 1-1 SAN · 43% STA 2-0 KOR · 58% TOT 1-0 CRY · 47% REA 2-0 MAL · 63% BAY 2-1 BOR · 53% HEE 2-1 NEC · 51% PSV 3-0 WIL · 68% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% UDI 0-2 ASR · 62% CHA 2-2 ORL · 42% AAL 1-1 SAN · 43% STA 2-0 KOR · 58% TOT 1-0 CRY · 47% REA 2-0 MAL · 63% BAY 2-1 BOR · 53% HEE 2-1 NEC · 51% PSV 3-0 WIL · 68% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42%
TuringStats
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— AI vs prediction markets

Can AI beat Polymarket and Kalshi?

Every day ten AI models forecast the most-traded questions on Polymarket and Kalshi, without seeing the price. When each market settles, we score who was closer.

Settled
75
AI closer
26
Market closer
48
Brier AI / market
0.203 / 0.156

Where the AIs disagree with the market

Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
11%
Kalshi
82%

AI more bearish by 71 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 9

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
14%
Polymarket
77%

AI more bearish by 63 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 10

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

10 AIs
26%
Polymarket
78%

AI more bearish by 52 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?

10 AIs
64%
Polymarket
14%

AI more bullish by 50 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 1

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

10 AIs
24%
Polymarket
67%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
63%
Polymarket
22%

AI more bullish by 41 pts

Open questions

Sports · Polymarket Closes Oct 31

Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-31?

10 AIs
49%
Polymarket
59%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 2

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

10 AIs
61%
Polymarket
67%
Weather · Kalshi Closes Nov 16

Will Oct 2026 be the hottest Oct ever?

10 AIs
70%
Kalshi
83%
Sports · Kalshi Closes Nov 14

Lucia Szabova wins by KO/TKO/DQ?

10 AIs
29%
Kalshi
23%
Sports · Kalshi Closes Nov 15

New York City Marathon Female Open Division: American to win?

10 AIs
13%
Kalshi
6%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 3

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

10 AIs
5%
Polymarket
12%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
65%
Kalshi
70%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 10

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in November 2026?

10 AIs
13%
Kalshi
6%
Sports · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

10 AIs
7%
Kalshi
10%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?

10 AIs
64%
Polymarket
14%

AI more bullish by 50 pts
Sports · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Jonathan Taylor's next team before Dec 1, 2026: Minnesota?

10 AIs
8%
Kalshi
41%

AI more bearish by 33 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
70%
Polymarket
63%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?

10 AIs
29%
Polymarket
32%
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 10

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

10 AIs
26%
Polymarket
78%

AI more bearish by 52 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
11%
Kalshi
82%

AI more bearish by 71 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 13

Will US PPI MoM for October 2026 be above 1.2%?

10 AIs
30%
Kalshi
12%

AI more bullish by 18 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
67%
Polymarket
72%
Sports · Kalshi Closes Nov 14

Jaime Munguia vs Nikita Zon: will Jaime Munguia win?

10 AIs
82%
Kalshi
92%
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 9

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
14%
Polymarket
77%

AI more bearish by 63 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
64%
Kalshi
24%

AI more bullish by 40 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
40%
Polymarket
74%

AI more bearish by 34 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 20

Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for October 2026 be above 1.5%?

10 AIs
12%
Kalshi
12%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
43%
Polymarket
40%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 12

Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for October 2026 be above 2.2%?

10 AIs
21%
Kalshi
25%
Other · Polymarket Closes Nov 30

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?

10 AIs
73%
Polymarket
56%

AI more bullish by 18 pts
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

10 AIs
12%
Kalshi
21%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 26

Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026?

10 AIs
35%
Kalshi
12%

AI more bullish by 23 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 23

Will the Bank of Israel cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting?

10 AIs
23%
Kalshi
41%

AI more bearish by 18 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 3

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

10 AIs
24%
Polymarket
7%

AI more bullish by 17 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

10 AIs
37%
Polymarket
25%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 19

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

10 AIs
40%
Kalshi
21%

AI more bullish by 19 pts
Sports · Kalshi Closes Nov 15

Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli: will Canelo Alvarez win?

10 AIs
61%
Kalshi
73%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 7

Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election?

10 AIs
48%
Kalshi
60%
Other · Polymarket Closes Nov 1

France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?

10 AIs
13%
Polymarket
9%
Other · Polymarket Closes Nov 29

Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?

10 AIs
7%
Polymarket
11%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 10

South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026?

10 AIs
24%
Kalshi
8%

AI more bullish by 16 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 7

Will BP Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 106 ?

10 AIs
44%
Kalshi
66%

AI more bearish by 22 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 7

Will Kroger Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 94 ?

10 AIs
68%
Kalshi
59%
Sports · Kalshi Closes Nov 6

AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: will Real Madrid win?

10 AIs
74%
Kalshi
77%
World · Polymarket Closes Dec 1

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

10 AIs
64%
Polymarket
23%

AI more bullish by 41 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q3 2026 be above 1.2%?

10 AIs
13%
Kalshi
5%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
47%
Polymarket
66%

AI more bearish by 19 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
63%
Polymarket
22%

AI more bullish by 41 pts
Tech & science · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026?

10 AIs
36%
Kalshi
14%

AI more bullish by 22 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 29

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

10 AIs
42%
Polymarket
42%
Tech & science · Kalshi Closes Nov 13

Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?

10 AIs
12%
Kalshi
27%

AI more bearish by 15 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Oct 28

Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

10 AIs
12%
Polymarket
9%
Sports · Kalshi Closes Nov 29

Will Dplus KIA win League of Legends Worlds?

10 AIs
9%
Kalshi
6%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

10 AIs
9%
Kalshi
5%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Nov 10

Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?

10 AIs
96%
Kalshi
90%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
70%
Polymarket
71%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 3

Will on! Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 124 ?

10 AIs
48%
Kalshi
17%

AI more bullish by 31 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 1

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

10 AIs
24%
Polymarket
67%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Sports · Kalshi Closes Nov 2

Nevada vs UCLA: will UCLA win?

10 AIs
80%
Kalshi
93%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

10 AIs
73%
Kalshi
63%
World · Polymarket Closes Nov 1

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

10 AIs
18%
Polymarket
7%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

10 AIs
24%
Kalshi
7%

AI more bullish by 17 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
48%
Polymarket
33%

AI more bullish by 15 pts
Culture · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

WIll GTA6 be released by Nov 30, 2026?

10 AIs
85%
Kalshi
93%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Nov 4

Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?

10 AIs
15%
Kalshi
16%

Recently settled

Politics · Polymarket Settled NO

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

10 AIs
50%
Polymarket
62%

AI was closer
Tech & science · Polymarket Settled NO

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

10 AIs
49%
Polymarket
13%

Polymarket was closer
Tech & science · Kalshi Settled YES

Best AI in Oct 2026?

10 AIs
58%
Kalshi
69%

Kalshi was closer
Sports · Polymarket Settled YES

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31?

10 AIs
57%
Polymarket
48%

AI was closer
Other · Polymarket Settled YES

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?

10 AIs
39%
Polymarket
64%

Polymarket was closer
Other · Polymarket Settled YES

Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?

10 AIs
13%
Polymarket
94%

Polymarket was closer
Sports · Polymarket Settled YES

Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-10-29?

10 AIs
57%
Polymarket
57%

AI was closer
Sports · Polymarket Settled NO

Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?

10 AIs
3%
Polymarket
9%

AI was closer
Sports · Kalshi Settled YES

Will William Contreras win Pro Baseball Championship Series MVP?

10 AIs
40%
Kalshi
36%

AI was closer
Sports · Kalshi Settled YES

Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee Championship Series Game Spread: Milwaukee -1.5 games?

10 AIs
51%
Kalshi
56%

Kalshi was closer
Sports · Kalshi Settled YES

NL wins the Pro Baseball Championship?

10 AIs
95%
Kalshi
92%

AI was closer
Sports · Kalshi Settled YES

Pro Baseball Championship: Milwaukee beats Tampa Bay?

10 AIs
53%
Kalshi
63%

Kalshi was closer

Which AI beats the market most?

# Model Brier Right side Beat market
1 Meta Muse Spark 1.3 0.160 100% 1/1
2 Kimi K3 0.202 73% 29/75
3 GLM 5.3 0.204 67% 32/75
4 GPT-5.6 Luna 0.205 65% 27/75
5 Qwen 3.8 Max 0.207 68% 32/75
6 Mistral Medium 3.5 0.209 65% 30/74
7 Gemini 3.8 Flash 0.212 68% 29/75
8 MiMo V2.5 Pro 0.212 64% 27/75
9 Grok 4.6 0.214 68% 21/75
10 DeepSeek V4 Pro 0.217 64% 39/75
11 Claude Sonnet 5 0.225 68% 27/75

Market Brier on the same questions: 0.156.

FAQ

Can AI beat Polymarket and Kalshi?

After 75 settled markets, the AI panel was closer 26 times and the market 48 times. Brier score (lower is better): AI 0.203, market 0.156.

How does this work?

Every day TuringStats takes the busiest questions on Polymarket and Kalshi. Ten AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek and more) read the resolution rules and a fresh web news brief, then each gives its own chance of YES. They never see the market price.

How are the AI and the market graded?

When a market settles we compare the AI panel average with the market price at the moment the AIs voted. The one closer to the real outcome wins that question; across many questions we use the Brier score, where always saying 50% scores 0.25.

Can I ask the AI models my own question?

Yes. Ask Multiple AI sends one question to all ten models at once and shows each answer side by side.

Is this betting advice?

No. TuringStats does not offer trading or wagering and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi.

Have your own question? Ask all ten AIs at once.