Will the Bank of Israel cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting?

Probably not — the Bank of Israel just paused at 3.25% and its staff forecast points to a higher 3.5% rate by year-end, while inflation is stable and activity is growing. A November cut remains plausible if geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if disinflation strengthens enough to outweigh the forecast.

Probably not — the October staff forecast actually implies a slight rise to 3.5% by end-2026, and the Bank just paused citing stable inflation and geopolitical/election uncertainty, suggesting continued hold in November. A cut remains plausible if inflation data soften further or shekel/geopolitical conditions ease, which would be the main upside risk to this call.

Probably not — the Bank of Israel paused its easing cycle in October at 3.25% amid geopolitical risks and domestic political uncertainty, and its staff projections suggest rates remaining steady or higher through year-end. A hold is the most probable outcome for the November 23 meeting. A surprise 25 bps cut could materialize only if economic data deteriorates sharply or geopolitical tensions abate rapidly, opening room to ease.

Probably not — they just held at 3.25% on 21 Oct after prior cuts, staff forecast points to 3.5% by end-2026 (implying hikes not cuts), and inflation is already 1.6%. A 1-25bp cut at the 23 Nov meeting would contradict that path unless activity or geopolitics worsen sharply in the next four weeks.

Likely no — the Bank of Israel held at 3.25% in October after three cuts, with staff forecasts pointing to 3.5% by end-2026, implying no cut in November. Stable inflation near target and election-related caution further reduce the odds of a move. A sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or geopolitical shock could still force a cut, but that is not the base case.

Probably not — the Bank of Israel staff's own October 2026 forecast projects the policy rate at 3.5% by end-2026, which is 25bp above the current 3.25%, strongly signaling no further easing. The October pause after three consecutive cuts and stable economic activity further suggest the committee is in a holding pattern. A cut could occur if inflation falls further or geopolitical risks worsen materially, but the staff forecast makes this unlikely.

Probably not — The Bank of Israel paused in October citing stable inflation (1.6%) and geopolitical risks, and staff forecasts still expect rates to rise slightly by year-end. A cut would require a sharp deterioration in data or risks, which isn't evident yet.

Probably not — the Bank of Israel just paused in October at 3.25% after three cuts, citing stable inflation (1.6%) and geopolitical tensions, and their own staff forecast shows the rate at 3.5% end-2026, implying no further cuts this year. However, with inflation well below target and the election now past, a small 25bp cut is plausible if they want to support growth. The main risk to my view is a surprise dovish shift given low inflation, but the staff forecast and recent pause suggest hold is more likely.

Probably not — the Bank just paused at 3.25% on Oct 21 with inflation stable at 1.6% and growth continuing, and staff forecasts point to a higher (3.5%) rate by end-2026, suggesting no near-term cut. A cut of 1-25bps would require a sharp deterioration or geopolitical shock before Nov 23. A surprise dovish turn in inflation data or renewed conflict-driven weakness could prove this wrong.

Probably not — the Bank paused at 3.25% in October after three cuts, with stable inflation at 1.6% and staff forecasts actually pointing to a higher rate at end-2026 (3.5%), suggesting the cutting cycle has paused. A November cut would require a significant deterioration in the outlook, which isn't evident yet. The main risk to this call is a sharp geopolitical or economic shock before the election-adjacent meeting that forces easing.