Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Probably not — the Fed just held the upper bound at 4.00%, and moving above it at the very next meeting would require a tightening hike amid a likely still-cautious policy outlook. The main risk is a sharp inflation or financial-conditions shock prompting an unexpected December rate increase.

Probably not — the Fed just cut on Oct 28 to 3.75-4.00%, and with inflation still a concern and recent cuts already made, a hike at the very next meeting (raising upper bound above 4.00%) is highly unlikely; market expectations favor hold or further cut. Main risk: a surprise inflation spike forcing a hawkish pivot.

Probably not — the current upper bound sits at 4.00%, meaning the Fed would have to hike rates at the December meeting for this to resolve Yes. In the prevailing monetary policy environment, rate hikes are extremely unlikely unless there is an extraordinary and sudden resurgence of inflation. A severe upside inflation shock before December is the only realistic scenario that could force a hike.

Probably not — the Fed just held the range at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28 and the next scheduled decision is Dec 9, so a hike would require a sharp, unexpected inflation or growth surprise in the next six weeks. Markets and recent statements point to a pause or possible further easing rather than a reversal into tightening. The main risk is a sudden data shock (hot CPI/PCE or financial-stability event) that forces an emergency hike at that meeting.

Likely no — the Fed just held rates steady at 3.75–4.00% on Oct. 28, 2026, and a hike at the very next meeting would be highly unusual absent a major inflation shock. With only about six weeks between meetings and no current indication of tightening, the most probable outcome is another hold. The main risk would be an unexpected surge in inflation data or hawkish Fed communications before Dec. 9.

Probably not — the Fed just held steady at 3.75-4.00% on Oct. 28, and the broader policy trajectory has been toward easing, making a hike above 4.00% by December very unlikely. A rate increase would require a dramatic inflation surprise or economic shock in the next six weeks. The main risk to this call would be an unexpected reacceleration in inflation data forcing the Fed to reverse course.

Probably not — The Fed has held rates steady at 3.75%-4.00% for months, and inflation has likely cooled further by December 2026, reducing pressure to hike. The main risk is a surprise inflation uptick or strong labor data forcing a 25bps hike.

Probably not — the Fed just held the range at 3.75%–4.00% on Oct. 28, and getting above 4.00% by Dec. 9 would require a rate hike, which is rare and would contradict the recent easing trajectory implied by the current level. With no reported inflation shock or hawkish pivot in the fresh research, a hold or cut is far more likely than a hike. The main risk is an unexpected inflation surge or hawkish surprise between now and mid-December prompting a 25bp hike.

Probably not — the upper bound is currently 4.00%, so YES would require the Fed to hike at the Dec. 9 meeting, which is highly unlikely given the Fed has been cutting into 2026 and holding. The realistic outcomes are a hold at 3.75–4.00% or another cut. Only a surprise inflation-driven hike would prove this wrong.

Probably not — the Fed has been cutting or holding rates, with the range at 3.75–4.00% after October's hold, and a hike at the December meeting would be a sharp reversal from the recent easing cycle. Inflation and labor data would need to shift dramatically in the next six weeks to justify a hike. The main risk is an upside inflation shock or a sudden hawkish pivot that makes a hike the consensus move.