Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Probably not — the September projections imply a lower year-end policy rate, making a December hike inconsistent with the Fed’s current baseline, while the meeting’s SEP could still support holding or cutting. A stronger-than-expected inflation resurgence or renewed hawkish consensus, as some economists reportedly anticipate, could make a 25-bps increase more likely.

Probably not — the Fed's own September SEP projects year-end 2026 fed funds at 3.6%, consistent with cuts not hikes, and the broader 2026 trajectory has been easing. A lone Reuters mention of economists expecting a hike doesn't outweigh the Fed's own projection path; I'd need clear evidence of an inflation surge forcing a reversal to expect a hike.

Extremely unlikely — the Federal Reserve is currently in an easing or pause cycle, with September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing a declining median federal funds rate (down to 3.6% by year-end). Rate hikes are off the table unless an unprecedented, sudden resurgence in inflation forces an emergency reversal before December. A drastic upside shock in monthly CPI and labor metrics between now and December 9 is the only scenario that could trigger a hike.

Probably not — September 2026 SEP median already has the funds rate at 3.6% by year-end, implying the Committee sees further easing or a hold rather than a hike at the December meeting. A late-October Reuters note that some economists still expect a hike is the main contrary signal, but it is not the Fed’s own path. Hot inflation or labor data between now and 9 December could still force a 25 bp increase.

Probably not — the Fed’s September 2026 projections show the median federal funds rate declining to 3.6% by year-end, implying cuts rather than hikes. Some economists reportedly expect a hike by December, but that is a minority view and not reflected in the latest SEP. The main risk to this call is if inflation reaccelerates sharply before the meeting, forcing the FOMC to tighten.

Probably not — the Fed's own SEP projections show a clear downward trajectory throughout 2026 (4.1% in March → 3.9% in June → 3.6% in September), indicating an easing cycle rather than a tightening one. A 25 bps hike at the December meeting would contradict the entire policy path signaled by the FOMC's own forecasts. The main risk to this view would be an unexpected inflation resurgence forcing a dramatic policy reversal, but that seems highly unlikely given the established trajectory.

Probably not — The Fed's September 2026 projections show a downward path to 3.6% by year-end, suggesting no hike. A Reuters report notes some economists expect a hike, but this is not consensus. The main risk is inflation surprising to the upside, forcing a 25 bps increase.

Probably not — the Fed's September 2026 projections show a declining rate path (3.6% year-end 2026, down from 3.9% in June and 4.1% in March), signaling cuts or holds rather than hikes. While a Reuters piece noted some economists expect a hike, the Fed's own median trajectory and easing bias make a 25bp increase unlikely. A surprise inflation resurgence before December 9 could flip this, but current signals point strongly against a hike.

Probably not — the Fed's own September 2026 projections point to a year-end funds rate of 3.6%, below the June projection of 3.9%, implying an easing bias into December rather than tightening. A hike would require a major inflation or data surprise in the next six weeks. The main risk to this call is the Reuters-reported economist speculation about another hike, suggesting some market participants see tightening risk.

Probably not — the Fed's September 2026 SEP projects a year-end 2026 median funds rate of 3.6%, below the current level implied earlier in the year, signaling an easing rather than hiking bias, and a 25bp hike would be a sharp reversal. The Reuters note that some economists expect a hike is a minority view and not a Fed signal. What could prove me wrong: a genuine inflation re-acceleration or hawkish shift in FOMC rhetoric between now and December that markets haven't yet priced in.