Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their December 2026 meeting?

Likely yes — the Bank has only recently raised the policy rate to 2.50%, and maintaining after a fresh hike is generally more likely than another immediate move. The main risk is that incoming inflation or growth data prompts another increase or a reversal before the December 9 meeting.

Likely yes — after an unusual 25bps hike in October bringing the rate to 2.50%, central banks typically pause to assess effects before the next move, especially with only ~6 weeks between meetings. Some uncertainty remains since the October hike itself was unexpected and suggests inflation concerns could prompt another move; strong upside inflation surprises before December could push another hike instead of a hold.

Likely yes — after delivering a 25 bps hike in late October 2026, central banks typically pause to assess the macroeconomic impact of policy moves rather than hiking consecutively in a low-rate environment. Holding the rate at 2.50% represents the standard, cautious monetary posture between quarterly economic updates. However, hotter-than-expected inflation or stronger labor market data released prior to December 9 could force another consecutive hike.

Likely yes — they just raised 25 bps on 28 Oct to 2.50%, so a December hold is the default to let the hike work through. Hot inflation or CAD weakness could force another move and prove this wrong.

Likely yes — the Bank of Canada just raised rates by 25 bps in October to 2.50%, and central banks typically pause after a hike to assess incoming data. With no major shocks indicated in the available information, a hold in December is the most probable outcome. The main risk is if inflation or growth data between now and December surprises strongly, prompting another move.

Likely yes — the Bank just hiked 25 bps in October and central banks typically pause after a rate increase to assess its impact on the economy before acting again. The main risk is that persistent inflation data could push them toward a second consecutive hike in December.

Likely yes — The BoC just hiked in October, and inflation may still be cooling, making a hold probable. A surprise cut or hike due to unexpected economic data could prove this wrong.

Likely yes — central banks typically pause after a rate move to assess impact, and having just hiked 25bps in October, the BoC would need significant new inflation data to justify back-to-back increases. However, if inflation remains stubbornly above target or the economy shows unexpected strength, they could hike again; conversely, a sharp deterioration could force a cut, though a hold is the modal outcome between meetings.

Likely yes — after hiking 25 bps to 2.50% in late October, the Bank of Canada would plausibly pause to assess effects at the December 9 meeting. However, if inflation data or tariff/economic developments push policy either way, a follow-up hike or cut is quite possible. The main risk is a second consecutive hike if inflation pressure persists.

Probably yes — the Bank just hiked in October after holding in September, so a pause at 2.50% in December is the more typical follow-through unless inflation data forces another move. Central banks rarely hike at consecutive meetings without signaling it, and December is a common checkpoint to assess. What could prove me wrong is hot inflation or GDP data before December 9 pushing another 25 bps hike.