Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Likely yes — the December FOMC meeting is scheduled to occur, and a zero-basis-point hike corresponds to maintaining rates, which is generally the modal outcome absent a clear tightening shock. The main risk is unexpectedly persistent inflation or stronger activity prompting a 25-bps increase, or an unusual policy change before December.

Likely not — the Fed is in an easing cycle through 2026 with rates well above target neutral, so a hike (0bps change, meaning no hike at all under this label) is unlikely versus continued cuts or holds; the question's own phrasing ('Hike by 0bps') essentially means no hike occurred, which is highly probable but as a 'Hike' category it typically resolves No when there's a cut instead. Market consensus strongly favors further rate cuts or a hold, not a hike, so this specific 'Hike 0bps' outcome is unlikely to be the resolving bucket.

Likely yes — by late 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to be near or at its neutral policy rate, making an unchanged policy stance (a 0 bps hike/pause) the most common baseline outcome at any single meeting. While ongoing economic data could trigger a 25 bps cut or hike, holding rates steady is typically the single most probable individual rate decision when policy is near equilibrium. A sudden resurgence of inflation or sharp labor market deterioration could force an active rate adjustment instead.

Likely yes — a 0 bp “hike” (i.e., an unchanged funds rate) is the modal FOMC outcome at a typical meeting six weeks out, and the December 8–9 gathering remains on the official calendar with no cancellation signal. Inflation and labor-market data would have to surprise sharply in either direction to force a 25 bp (or larger) move. The main risk is a late-cycle inflation rebound or unexpected recession that prompts an unscheduled change.

Likely yes — “Hike by 0bps” is equivalent to no change, and the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at the December 2026 meeting. With no major inflation or employment shock evident by late October, a hike is very unlikely. The main risk is a surprise hawkish move if data before December 9 shows sharply accelerating inflation.

Likely yes — by December 2026, the Fed has likely completed or paused its easing cycle and is holding rates steady, making a 0 bps change the most probable single outcome. The main risk to this call is that the economy could still be weakening enough to warrant further cuts, or inflation could reaccelerate enough to prompt a hike, but the base case of a pause seems most likely at this point in the cycle.

Probably yes — The Fed has been in a holding pattern for over a year, and inflation is likely near target by late 2026. A surprise rate cut or hike is the main risk that could prove this wrong.

Likely yes — a 0bps change means the Fed holds rates steady at the December 2026 meeting, which is historically the most common single outcome and the base case absent strong evidence of an imminent hike or cut. With the meeting confirmed on the calendar and no signal of a policy shift priced in current research, holding steady is the modal expectation. The main risk is that economic data between now and December 9 pushes the Fed toward a cut or hike, which would resolve this to No.

Likely yes — a 0 bps change (holding rates steady) is typically the single most likely FOMC outcome, and the December 2026 meeting is confirmed on the Fed's calendar. However, by late 2026 the Fed could be in a cutting or hiking cycle, which would push this toward No. The main risk is that inflation or growth data force a 25 bps move in either direction before December 9.

Likely yes — a 0bp change (hold) is the modal outcome for the December 2026 FOMC given a stable policy rate environment and no strong signal of imminent hikes. The rules also favor this outcome if the meeting is canceled. The main risk is an unexpected inflation or growth shock prompting a hike or cut before then.