Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Probably not — the September hike is excluded by the rules, and the next qualifying opportunity is the December 8–9 meeting, with the upper bound currently unchanged at 4.00%. A December hike remains plausible if inflation or activity reaccelerates, but the baseline is more likely to be a hold; an emergency hike or unexpectedly hawkish December decision would prove this wrong.

Probably not — the Fed just hiked in September to combat inflation concerns, but current market expectations and Fed guidance generally point toward holding or cutting rather than another hike at the December meeting given growth/labor market considerations. No evidence of imminent further tightening signals through late October 2026. This could be wrong if inflation data surges unexpectedly before December.

Unlikely to occur — while the Fed reportedly adjusted rates in September, the explicit rule excludes the September 15–16 decision, leaving only the December meeting or an unscheduled emergency move to trigger a 'Yes'. Central banks frequently pause after adjustments to gauge incoming macroeconomic data rather than hiking consecutively into year-end. A sharp upward surprise in inflation or labor market heat ahead of December represents the primary risk to this expectation.

Probably not — they already hiked 25 bp in mid-September to a 4.00% upper bound and the only remaining scheduled opportunity is the 8–9 December FOMC; an inter-meeting emergency hike is rare. A December hike would require a clear inflation or labor-market surprise that has not yet appeared. The call is wrong if incoming data force the Committee to tighten again in December.

Probably not — the Fed just hiked in September 2026 to 3.75–4.00%, and with only the December meeting remaining in the window, another hike would require a rapid shift in data or a surprise inflation resurgence. The main risk to this view is a strong inflation or labor-market report before December that pushes the FOMC to tighten again.

Probably not — while the September hike to 3.75%-4.00% shows a tightening bias, the Fed often pauses between hikes to assess cumulative effects, and no additional hike has materialized in the six weeks since. The December meeting could go either way, but a hold is more likely than consecutive hikes absent evidence of accelerating inflation or an emergency. Main risk to this call: if inflation data through November surprises to the upside, the Fed could feel compelled to hike again.

Probably not — The Fed has held rates steady since the September hike, and recent economic data suggests inflation is cooling. A December hike is unlikely unless inflation re-accelerates sharply.

Probably not — the Fed just hiked in September 2026, and with only the December 8–9 meeting left in the window, back-to-back hikes are uncommon unless inflation is reaccelerating sharply. The available facts show no signals of an imminent follow-up hike, and the baseline after a tightening move is usually a hold while the Fed assesses effects. A surprise inflation spike or emergency action before December 9 could still deliver another increase, which is the main way this resolves yes.

Likely no — the only remaining opportunity is the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, and the Fed just hiked 25bp in September, so back-to-back hikes are historically uncommon unless inflation re-accelerates sharply. The absence of any confirmed additional hike through late October and no interim meeting leaves little room for a surprise. A hot inflation print or hawkish Fed signaling before December could prove this wrong.

Probably not — the Fed hiked in September and the window now hinges on a further hike at the December 8–9 meeting, which markets and the Fed's own guidance have generally treated as a pause-or-cut scenario rather than a tightening cycle. With no confirmed hike since September 17 and inflation likely cooling, a second consecutive hike looks unlikely. What could prove me wrong: a hot inflation print or renewed financial stress forcing the Fed to tighten again in December.