Will US PPI MoM for October 2026 be above 1.2%?

Probably not — October’s headline PPI would need to exceed an unusually high 1.2% monthly increase, while September’s 1.3% surge may reflect a temporary spike. The elevated recent inflation trend keeps the probability meaningful, but a second month above that threshold is less likely; another broad energy or goods-price shock could prove me wrong.

Probably not — September's 1.3% was the largest jump since 2022, often followed by partial reversion since tariff pass-through spikes tend to moderate; base case for October is a cooler reading closer to 0.3-0.6%. Risk is that tariff effects continue cascading through supply chains, which could sustain another hot print above 1.2%.

Probably not — a monthly PPI increase above 1.2% is exceptionally rare historically, with September's 1.3% spike representing an unusual outlier rather than an ongoing baseline. Monthly headline PPI typically exhibits mean reversion following major energy or commodity-driven surges. However, continued severe commodity supply shocks or renewed broad-based tariff impacts carrying directly into October could cause another extreme print above 1.2%.

Probably not — September’s 1.3% MoM (goods +2.6%) was the biggest jump since 2022 and looks like a one-off spike that typically mean-reverts. Consecutive months above 1.2% are rare even in high-inflation periods. The main thing that could prove this wrong is another large energy or food surge in October.

Probably not — September’s 1.3% MoM was an outlier driven by a 2.6% surge in goods, and such spikes rarely repeat consecutively. While energy volatility could push October above 1.2%, the base expectation is for some moderation from that extreme. The main risk is another large energy or food price shock sustaining the elevated monthly gain.

Probably not — while September's 1.3% MoM reading shows strong inflationary momentum, consecutive months above 1.2% PPI are historically rare and typically driven by one-off energy or supply shocks that don't repeat. The elevated 6.3% annual rate suggests persistent pressure, but mean reversion from such an extreme monthly spike makes another 1.2%+ reading less likely. A continued energy price surge or new supply disruption could push it above the threshold.

Probably not — September's 1.3% spike was an outlier driven by volatile goods prices, and a mean reversion is likely. The main risk is another energy or supply shock pushing it above 1.2%.

Probably not — while September's 1.3% MoM reading shows pipeline inflation is running hot, a repeat above 1.2% would require another outsized monthly jump, and historically such extreme prints (largest since March 2022) tend to moderate rather than persist back-to-back. Base rates for PPI MoM exceeding 1.2% are low even in hot inflation regimes, so I lean slightly below 50%. The main risk to my call is continued tariff-driven or energy-driven goods price surges pushing October to a second consecutive extreme reading.

Probably not — a second consecutive month above 1.2% MoM would be extremely unusual; September's 1.3% spike was the largest since March 2022, and PPI months above 1.2% are historically rare outside of major supply shocks. The most likely outcome is a sharp mean-reversion toward 0.2-0.6%. The main risk is that whatever drove September's spike (goods +2.6%, likely energy/tariffs) persists or intensifies into October, which would push it above 1.2% again.

Probably not — September's +1.3% MoM was the largest since March 2022 and looks like an outlier driven by a one-off energy/food shock, so October is unlikely to repeat above 1.2% absent a fresh spike. Base rates for monthly headline PPI show most prints well under 1.0%, and mean reversion after an outsized month is common. I could be wrong if energy prices keep surging or there's another tariff/supply shock feeding through in October.