Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Probably not — the latest polling has Chiang Wan-an narrowly ahead, and incumbency plus his established first-term record give him a modest structural advantage. The race is highly competitive, however, and the upcoming debate, campaign developments, or a polling error could allow Shen to overtake him.

Probably not, but close — polling shows Chiang Wan-an with a slight but consistent lead (41.7% vs 40.5% in late Sept, similar gap reported in October), and incumbents in Taipei mayoral races tend to hold modest edges. However the race remains within striking distance with over a month left and a debate pending, so an upset by Shen can't be ruled out.

Probably not — incumbent Chiang Wan-an maintains a traditional structural advantage in Taipei's historically blue-leaning electorate and leads slightly in recent polling. Shen remains competitive within the margin of error, giving him a solid chance if anti-incumbent sentiment or third-party splitting emerges. However, overcoming an incumbent KMT mayor in Taipei remains an uphill climb for any DPP candidate.

Probably not — latest polls have incumbent Chiang Wan-an narrowly ahead of DPP challenger Puma Shen, and Chiang can campaign on a completed first term while the election is only five weeks away. The race is close enough that a strong debate performance or late swing could still put Shen over, but the incumbent edge makes that the less likely outcome.

Slightly unlikely — Shen is the DPP challenger and recent polls show him narrowly behind incumbent Chiang Wan-an, though within the margin of error. The race is competitive, but incumbency and Chiang’s first-term record give him a small edge. Shen could win if DPP mobilization is strong and undecided voters break his way, but current evidence favors Chiang.

Probably not — Chiang Wan-an holds a slight polling lead as incumbent in a city that traditionally leans blue, and incumbency advantage in Taipei is significant. However, the race is within the margin of error and the upcoming October 31 debate could shift momentum, so Shen has a real but underdog path. A strong debate performance or a late-breaking scandal involving Chiang could change the picture.

Probably not — Puma Shen trails slightly in recent polls and faces an incumbent with a first-term record to tout. The main thing that could prove this wrong is a strong debate performance or late shift in voter sentiment.

Probably not — incumbent Chiang Wan-an leads narrowly (41.7% vs 40.5% in late September polling) and Taipei has historically leaned KMT, giving the incumbent a structural edge. Shen is genuinely competitive and within striking distance, so a late swing, strong debate performance on 10/31, or a third candidate splitting the anti-DPP vote could flip it. The main thing that could prove me wrong is a late polling surge for Shen or a major Chiang scandal in the final weeks.

Probably not — Shen trails Chiang slightly in recent polling (40.5% vs 41.7% in September, still behind per early-October reports), and Chiang enjoys incumbency in a historically KMT-leaning city. The race is close enough that a strong debate performance on October 31 or late campaign momentum could flip it, which is the main risk to this call.

Probably not — Puma Shen is currently slightly behind incumbent Chiang Wan-an in polling, and incumbents in Taipei have historically been difficult to defeat. The September poll showed Chiang at 41.7% versus Shen at 40.5%, and subsequent October reporting still indicated Shen trailing. However, the race is very close and a strong debate performance or late campaign momentum could shift the outcome, so this remains genuinely competitive.