FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37%
Sports · Polymarket · Settled Oct 31, 2026

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-31?

Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC

10 AI models
57% yes

9 lean yes · 1 lean no

Polymarket when AIs voted
48% yes

Settled YES. The AI panel was closer than Polymarket.

What each AI says

GPT-6 Luna

56% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea are at home and reportedly sit fifth while United are 16th and have gone eight matches without a win, which gives Chelsea the stronger baseline. Chelsea’s recent home defending and unconfirmed team news make an upset plausible; a United turnaround or key Chelsea absences could prove this estimate wrong.

Claude Sonnet 5.5

55% yes

Likely yes, though only modestly. Chelsea are at home, sit 5th against a 16th-placed United, and United are winless in eight matches. Against that, Chelsea have conceded in each of their last five home games, and derby-style fixtures like this are often tight, with draws and upsets common. Unconfirmed injuries or a United bounce under pressure could prove me wrong.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

58% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea enters the match in significantly better league form (5th vs. 16th) and holds home advantage at Stamford Bridge against a struggling Manchester United side that is winless in eight matches. However, Chelsea's defensive record at home has been shaky, having conceded in five straight, leaving room for a draw or an upset if United produces a resilient counter-attacking performance.

Grok 4.7

62% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea are clear home favorites as 5th hosts against 16th-placed United, who are winless in eight and have not won since early September. Chelsea’s recent habit of conceding at Stamford Bridge is the main reason this is not higher, and a draw or United smash-and-grab remains plausible.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

63% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea are at home and in far better league form than a Manchester United side winless in eight matches across all competitions. Chelsea’s defensive vulnerability at home is a concern, but United’s poor run and lower table position make the hosts clear favorites. The main risk is a low-scoring draw or United ending their slump with a one-off performance.

Qwen 3.8 Max

60% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea are 5th and at home against a Manchester United side sitting 16th and winless in their last eight matches across all competitions, making them clear favorites. Chelsea's recent tendency to concede at home introduces some uncertainty, but United's poor form makes an away win unlikely. A draw remains the main risk to this picking.

Meta Muse Spark 1.3

60% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea at home against 16th-place United on an 8-game winless run since early September. 5th vs 16th gap plus Stamford Bridge edge outweighs Chelsea conceding in five straight home games. Could be wrong if Chelsea's defensive vulnerability continues and United finally converts against a shaky back line.

Kimi K3

62% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea are at home, sitting 5th, while Manchester United are 16th and winless in their last eight across all competitions, making Chelsea clear favourites at Stamford Bridge. United's long winless run and Chelsea's superior league position outweigh concerns about Chelsea conceding in their last five home games. The main risk is Chelsea's leaky home defence allowing a struggling but historically dangerous United side to snatch a draw or upset.

GLM 5.3

46% yes

Likely a tight call — Chelsea at home face a United side winless in eight, which normally favors Chelsea, but Chelsea's home form is shaky with concessions in five straight home games. Draw risk plus United's potential to nick a result keeps this near even. A confirmed strong Chelsea lineup or United injury crisis could push this clearly above 50.

MiMo V2.6 Pro

52% yes

Likely yes — Chelsea are at home and far higher in the table (5th vs 16th), with United winless in eight, so they're clear favorites. That said, Chelsea's leaky home form and the general ~30% draw rate in the Premier League keep this well below a lock. What could prove me wrong is a resurgent United performance or Chelsea's defensive fragility gifting a draw or loss.

News the AIs read (Oct 31)
- Chelsea host Manchester United on Saturday, 2026-10-31, in the Premier League at Stamford Bridge, London, with kick-off at 12:30 GMT/UK time. - This is an upcoming fixture on 2026-10-31, so the win/loss question will be decided by the full-time result of this match. - Chelsea were listed as 5th in the report cited, while Manchester United were 16th; one preview also said United were winless in their last eight matches in all competitions and Chelsea had conceded in each of their last five home games. - Recent form from the cited preview data: Manchester United had not won since a 4-0 Champions League win over Sabah on 2026-09-10, and Chelsea had been vulnerable at home recently. - Head-to-head context in the cited materials is limited, but the matchup is a Premier League Round 9 meeting at Stamford Bridge. - Team-news details were not clearly confirmed in the results beyond a predicted lineup; one source listed Cole Palmer in Chelsea’s projected XI and several named United starters, but this should be treated as unconfirmed lineup info rather than official team news. - No official injury or suspension list was confirmed in the retrieved results.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 31, 2026 If Chelsea FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Market prices: Polymarket. TuringStats is not affiliated with Polymarket.

More sports questions