GPT-5.6 Luna
12% yes
Probably not — Taylor is under contract with Indianapolis through 2028, has denied requesting a trade, and the owner reportedly opposes moving him, while Minnesota rumors remain speculative. The main risk is an abrupt trade before Dec. 1, especially if the Colts reverse course or Minnesota makes a compelling offer.
Claude Sonnet 5
4% yes
Probably not — Taylor just signed a long-term extension through 2028, denied requesting a trade, and the Colts owner reportedly does not want to deal him; Minnesota link is speculative with no confirmed transaction. Only strong news of a sudden trade before Dec 1 would change this.
Gemini 3.8 Flash
8% yes
Probably not — Taylor recently inked a massive extension, explicitly stated he has not requested a trade, and the Colts leadership has signaled they have no intention of moving him before the deadline. The Vikings connection appears to be purely speculative media buzz rather than active negotiations. A sudden, massive blockbuster trade prior to the NFL trade deadline is the only scenario that would prove this wrong.
Grok 4.6
8% yes
Probably not — Taylor just signed a two-year Colts extension through 2028, has not requested a trade, and the owner/coach have publicly indicated he is staying. Minnesota remains only speculative rumor with no official transaction, and the Dec 1 cutoff (plus likely imminent NFL trade deadline) leaves little time for a deal. A sudden owner reversal or injury-driven fire sale could still prove this wrong.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
12% yes
Likely no — Taylor remains under contract with Indianapolis, has publicly said he hasn’t requested a trade, and the Colts’ owner reportedly does not want to move him. Minnesota links are speculative and no official transaction is imminent. The main risk is a sudden change in stance and an official trade before Dec 1, but that looks unlikely given the current reporting.
Qwen 3.8 Max
6% yes
Probably not — Taylor just signed a two-year extension through 2028, has not requested a trade, and both the owner and coach have publicly stated he remains on the Colts. The Minnesota link is described as pure speculation with no confirmed transaction, and there's only about a month left before the deadline. A surprise trade is always possible in the NFL, but all signals strongly point to Taylor staying in Indianapolis.
Mistral Medium 3.5
20% yes
Probably not — Taylor is under contract with the Colts through 2028, and both he and the team have denied trade requests. The main risk is an unexpected last-minute trade to Minnesota before Dec 1.
Kimi K3
8% yes
Probably not — Taylor is under contract with the Colts through 2028 after his August 2026 extension, and both he and coach Steichen publicly denied any trade request this week. Minnesota is the most-speculated destination, but with the NFL trade deadline (early November) imminent and the Colts' owner opposed to a deal, a confirmed move by Dec 1 is unlikely. A blockbuster deadline offer or a surprise post-deadline transaction could still prove this wrong.
GLM 5.3
3% yes
Probably not — Taylor signed a two-year extension with the Colts in August 2026, has publicly denied requesting a trade, and the owner reportedly opposes a deal, so a Minnesota trade before Dec 1 is unlikely. Only a sudden collapse in relations or a blockbuster offer before the deadline could flip this.
MiMo V2.6 Pro
3% yes
Probably not — Taylor just signed a two-year, $44M extension with the Colts through 2028 and has not requested a trade, with the owner reportedly opposed to moving him. For Minnesota to be his next team before Dec 1, an official trade would need to be completed in the next month, which is unlikely given the Colts' stance. The main thing that could prove me wrong is a sudden, officially reported blockbuster trade at the deadline.
News the AIs read (Oct 30)
- Jonathan Taylor is still with the Indianapolis Colts as of 2026-10-30; he signed a two-year, $44 million extension in August 2026 that runs through 2028.
- On 2026-10-29, Taylor said he has not requested a trade, and Colts coach Shane Steichen said Taylor is “on our football team”.
- Reports on 2026-10-28 to 2026-10-29 said the Colts’ owner does not want to trade Taylor, and a move to Minnesota was described as speculative rather than confirmed.
- On 2026-10-25, the Colts played the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium and lost 16-10; Taylor had 18 carries for 95 yards and a touchdown.
- Minnesota is currently the team most often linked in trade speculation, but there is no confirmed transaction sending Taylor there as of 2026-10-30.
- The key date for this question is 2026-12-01; if Taylor is still on the Colts then, this question resolves against a Minnesota move.
Resolution rules
If Jonathan Taylor's
next team is the Minnesota Pro Football team
before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If Jonathan Taylor officially retires before Dec 1, 2026 or is not signed to any team on Dec 1, 2026, "Retires / No Team" resolves to Yes.
If Jonathan Taylor remains on the team they were on upon issuance on Dec 1, 2026, then the market for that team will resolve Yes.
If Jonathan Taylor is a free agent, whether restricted or unrestricted, for any period of time and signs a contract with any team, including their previous team, the market for that team will resolve Yes.
If Jonathan Taylor signs a contract extension or re-signs while under contract with that same team, that does not trigger an early resolution of this market.
Note: In order for the market to resolve early, the transaction must be made official and reported by the Governing League, or Jonathan Taylor must formally announce that he is retiring as reported by a Source Agency.
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