FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37%
Other · Polymarket · Settled Oct 30, 2026

Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?

Total commitments for the 1win ($1w) public sale

10 AI models
13% yes

0 lean yes · 10 lean no

Polymarket when AIs voted
94% yes

Settled YES. Polymarket was closer than the AI panel.

What each AI says

GPT-5.6 Luna

12% yes

Probably not — the latest confirmed gross pool was only $6.44M on October 27, leaving a very large gap to $20M with the deadline imminent. A sharp late surge in deposits or an unreported update to the official sale-page total could still make this resolve Yes.

Claude Sonnet 5

30% yes

Probably not — current total ($6.44M as of 10/27) would need to more than triple to exceed $20M within about 5-6 days, which requires a sharp acceleration in commitments; crypto token sales can sometimes surge late but no evidence of such momentum yet. Confirmed data showing a rapid jump toward $20M before the deadline would prove this wrong.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

18% yes

Probably not — as of October 27 the gross pool stood at only $6.44M, leaving a substantial gap to reach $20M with just a few days remaining. Token sale momentum typically peaks early, making a more than 3x increase in the final days improbable. A sudden massive whale inflow or coordinated late push before the November 2 deadline could prove this wrong.

Grok 4.6

8% yes

Probably not — the official headline pool was only ~$6.44M as of 27 Oct and would need to more than triple in the remaining days before 2 Nov 23:59 ET, with no reports of such a surge. A last-minute FOMO wave after the last snapshot could still push it over, but that looks unlikely given the already-oversubscribed $3.9M allocation.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

3% yes

Likely no — as of 2026-10-27 the public sale had only $6.44M committed, far below the $20M threshold, with just a few days remaining before the cutoff. The sale would need a sudden surge of over $13.5M in commitments, which is unlikely absent a major announcement or whale deposit. The main risk is an unconfirmed large investor or promotional event driving a rapid spike before November 2.

Qwen 3.8 Max

15% yes

Probably not — as of October 27 the pool total stands at ~$6.4M, requiring a roughly 3x increase in just 4 days to exceed $20M, which is an extraordinary surge even accounting for typical end-of-sale rushes. While the sale is already oversubscribed relative to its $3.9M allocation, reaching $20M+ would require unprecedented whale participation or a viral catalyst with no evidence of either. The main risk to this call is a sudden large institutional or whale commitment in the final days, which token sales occasionally attract.

Mistral Medium 3.5

15% yes

Probably not — The latest confirmed pool total is $6.44M, far below $20M, with only ~4 days left until the cutoff. The sale may struggle to attract $13.5M+ in new commitments so quickly. A sudden surge in demand or a major partnership announcement could prove this wrong.

Kimi K3

4% yes

Probably not — the confirmed total is only $6.44M as of 2026-10-27, leaving just ~4 days to more than triple to over $20M. Token sales typically see early surges then taper, so a $13.6M jump in the final days is unlikely absent a whale or major promo push. A last-minute large commitment or marketing blitz could prove me wrong.

GLM 5.3

25% yes

Probably not — commitments sit at $6.44M as of Oct 27, requiring more than a 3x jump in under a week to clear $20M. Crypto token sales sometimes see late surges or whale deposits, but the oversubscribed-allocation dynamic suggests steady rather than explosive growth. The main risk to a No call is a last-minute FOMO-driven spike or a single large stablecoin deposit before the Nov 2 cutoff.

MiMo V2.6 Pro

3% yes

Probably not — the last confirmed total is $6.44M as of Oct 27, and it would need to more than triple to over $20M within about 6 days, with no evidence of such a surge. The sale already exceeded its $3.9M allocation, but reaching $20M would require extraordinary late demand that isn't indicated anywhere. The main thing that could prove me wrong is a large last-minute whale or institutional tranche pushing the headline figure past $20M before Nov 2.

News the AIs read (Oct 29)
- Official page snapshot on 2026-10-27 shows the 1W Token Sale at **US$6,442,064 of US$3,900,000**, which is already above $3.9M but still well below $20M. - The market’s resolution source is the headline pool total on the official 1W Token Sale page, using the gross “US$[amount] of US$[allocation]” figure; the sale can resolve “Yes” only if that displayed pool total exceeds $20M before 2026-11-02 11:59 PM ET. - The latest publicly visible sale-page total found is from 2026-10-27, so the current commitments are confirmed at $6.44M as of that date. - No confirmed source in the gathered material shows the pool total reaching $20M. - The sale closes on 2026-11-03, and the decision point for this question is 2026-11-02 23:59 ET. - If the headline pool total has risen above $20M after 2026-10-27, that would be the decisive fact, but it is not confirmed here.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if total commitments to the official 1W public sale exceed the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the headline pool total displayed on the official 1W Token Sale page at https://1wtoken.com/ (the "US$[amount] of US$[allocation]" figure). Total commitments refers to this gross pool amount, including any oversubscription above the sale's allocation, and not the final allocated amount after excess deposits are refunded. If the sale page displays only a net or allocated figure rather than the gross pool amount, official announcements of the gross amount from 1W will be used. The sale accepts deposits in US dollar stablecoins (USDC), which are counted as US dollars at 1:1. If the displayed figure exceeds the specified value at any point before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent refunds or cancellations. A displayed figure exactly equal to the specified value will not qualify. If the figure on the sale page is unavailable, official announcements from 1W (https://x.com/1winToken) may be used; if no official figure is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. If no commitment total is verifiable by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, including because the sale is put on hold, cancelled, or rescheduled to a time past that date, this market will resolve to "No". If requisite information for this market's resolution becomes permanently unavailable within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". If the sale is extended before the official closing time, commitments made during the extended period will count toward resolution, provided the displayed figure exceeds the specified value before November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Market prices: Polymarket. TuringStats is not affiliated with Polymarket.

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