Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

Probably not — the latest 7-day average is only about 4.1 transits per day, with June’s post-disruption peak at 12.9 and traffic reportedly restricted as of 19 October. A rapid diplomatic or military resolution could reopen the strait and push traffic above 60 before the deadline, but that would require an exceptionally sharp recovery.

Probably not — current 7-day average is around 4/day with the strait effectively restricted as of mid-October, and even the busiest month this year peaked at only 12.9/day, far short of 60. A sudden full reopening within six weeks would be needed, which no current evidence supports.

Probably not — transit calls remain severely depressed at around 4 transits per day as of mid-October 2026, leaving barely six weeks to climb past 60. Ramping commercial maritime traffic to over 70% of pre-crisis capacity requires sweeping geopolitical de-escalation, mine clearing, and insurer reinstatement that cannot realistically materialize overnight. A sudden breakthrough ceasefire paired with immediate naval escort deployments is the only plausible path to reaching that threshold in time.

Probably not — current IMF PortWatch 7-day averages remain ~4 or lower (as of 11 Oct) after a June peak of only 12.9, far below 60, and the strait is still described as restricted/closed as of 19 Oct. Reaching 60 would require an abrupt full reopening plus a huge traffic surge in the remaining ~6 weeks, which current conditions do not support. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough that restores pre-war volumes overnight is the main way this could still go yes.

Probably not — current data shows the 7-day average around 4.1 transits/day as of 11 Oct 2026, with no sign of recovery toward 60, and even the best recent month was only 12.9/day. A jump to above 60 within six weeks would require a near-complete normalization of traffic, which appears unlikely given ongoing restrictions. The main risk is a sudden ceasefire or reopening that rapidly restores tanker flows.

Probably not — the 7-day average sits at roughly 4 transits/day as of mid-October 2026, with even the post-disruption peak (June) reaching only 12.9/day, and the strait is described as effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. Reaching 60 would require a ~15x increase in about six weeks, which would demand both an immediate end to hostilities and an implausibly rapid restoration of shipping confidence. Only a sudden, comprehensive peace deal combined with extraordinarily fast normalization could change this outcome.

Probably not — Current data shows traffic at ~4.1/day, far below 60, with no evidence of a sharp recovery. The strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. A sudden, rapid normalization in the next 6 weeks could prove this wrong.

Probably not — the strait remains effectively restricted with only ~4 transits/day as of mid-October, and even the busiest month since the disruption (June 2026) peaked at 12.9/day, far below the 60 threshold. Reaching above 60 would require a roughly 15x surge in traffic within six weeks, implying a rapid full normalization that current conditions don't support. A sudden ceasefire or security breakthrough could change this, but there's no evidence of one in the available data.

Probably not — current 7-day averages are around 0.6–4 transits/day and the strait is described as effectively closed, a massive gap from the 60 threshold. Recovery to even near-normal levels within six weeks would require a sudden geopolitical settlement and rapid resumption of shipping. A swift end to the conflict with immediate reopening of the strait is the main scenario that could prove this wrong.

Very unlikely — as of mid-October 2026, the 7-day moving average is around 4.1 transits/day, which is drastically below the 60 threshold. Traffic has been severely disrupted since the conflict began, and even the busiest month (June 2026) only reached 12.9 transits/day. The main risk to this view is a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire that rapidly reopens the strait, but the timeline to reach 60 from near-zero in roughly six weeks appears extremely challenging.