FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37%
Culture · Kalshi · Closes Dec 1, 2026

WIll GTA6 be released by Nov 30, 2026?

Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date

10 AI models
85% yes

10 lean yes · 0 lean no

Kalshi when AIs voted
93% yes

Now 96%

What each AI says

GPT-5.6 Luna

91% yes

Likely yes — Rockstar and Xbox currently list GTA VI for November 19, 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S, comfortably before the November 30 cutoff. The main risk is another delay or cancellation before launch, especially given the two previous delays.

Claude Sonnet 5

82% yes

Likely yes — official Nov 19, 2026 release date for PS5/Xbox is confirmed and stands within the cutoff, with no new delay reported as of today. Main risk is a third delay announcement before launch, which has happened twice before for this title, but there's currently no evidence of one.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

88% yes

Likely yes — with the official launch date set for November 19, 2026, just one month away, marketing and distribution pipelines are already in late-stage execution. AAA titles rarely slip at this very late juncture unless critical technical or certification hurdles arise. A last-minute multi-week delay pushing release into December or early 2027 remains the only plausible risk.

Grok 4.6

82% yes

Likely yes — Rockstar and Xbox currently list a Nov 19 2026 console launch, which is before the Nov 30 cutoff and only a month away. A further delay remains possible given the title’s history of slips, but none has been announced and last-minute postponements this close to a confirmed date are uncommon.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

85% yes

Likely yes — Rockstar and Xbox currently list GTA VI for November 19, 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S, which falls before the cutoff. The game has already been delayed twice, but the latest confirmed date is still within the window. The main risk is another last-minute delay announced before Nov 30.

Qwen 3.8 Max

85% yes

Likely yes — the confirmed release date of November 19, 2026 falls well within the November 30 cutoff, and with only ~4 weeks remaining no further delay has been announced. The main risk is that GTA6 has already been delayed twice, and Rockstar could still push it back, but at this late stage with marketing presumably in full swing, another delay would be unusual and costly.

Mistral Medium 3.5

95% yes

Likely yes — Rockstar and Xbox officially list GTA VI for November 19, 2026 on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S, which is before the cutoff. The main risk is an unannounced last-minute delay, but current evidence shows no such indication.

Kimi K3

75% yes

Likely yes — Rockstar's current official date is November 19, 2026, which is 11 days before the cutoff, and the game is deep enough in production that a firm dated announcement suggests confidence. However, GTA VI has already been delayed twice, and Rockstar has a long history of pushing releases, so another slip into 2027 is a real risk. The main thing that could prove me wrong is a further delay announcement, which remains plausible given the studio's track record.

GLM 5.3

82% yes

Likely yes — the official date is Nov 19, 2026, eleven days before the cutoff, and Rockstar has publicly committed to it after the prior delays. The main risk is a third delay pushing past Nov 30, which historically Rockstar has done, but a delay announced this close to launch with marketing already underway is less common. A last-minute slip of even a few weeks would flip this to NO.

MiMo V2.5 Pro

85% yes

Likely yes — Rockstar and Xbox currently list GTA VI for release on November 19, 2026, which is well before the November 30 cutoff. However, the game has already been delayed twice, so there is a meaningful chance it slips again, which is the main risk to this forecast.

News the AIs read (Oct 18)
- Rockstar and Xbox currently list Grand Theft Auto VI for **November 19, 2026** on PS5 and Xbox Series X/S, so that date is **before** the Nov. 30, 2026 cutoff. - The release has been delayed twice from earlier windows, but the latest confirmed launch date remains **Nov. 19, 2026**. - No later official delay or cancellation appears in the current facts gathered; if that changes, it would be the key event affecting this question. - PC release timing is still not announced, but the market question is about a release on a major platform, and PS5/Xbox Series X/S are already scheduled for **Nov. 19, 2026**.
Resolution rules
If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Rockstar Games. Any references to Rockstar Games, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Rockstar Games and Kalshi.

Market prices: Kalshi. TuringStats is not affiliated with Kalshi.