Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for October 2026 be above 2.2%?

Probably not — private estimates cluster around 1.8%–2.0%, while the broader Q4 disinflation trend points below the 2.2% threshold. A sharp late-month price surge or methodological surprise in INDEC’s November 12 release could still push October inflation above 2.2%.

Probably not — private estimates for October 2026 cluster at 1.8-2.0%, and the trend (though actually ticking up from Aug to Sep) remains well under 2.2% per BBVA and private surveys. Main risk to this view is a surprise FX or price shock pushing the print higher than forecasters currently expect.

Probably not — recent private sector forecasts project October inflation between 1.8% and 2.0%, following September's 1.9% print and general expectations of continued deceleration into Q4. While monthly CPI in Argentina remains volatile and regulated price adjustments could cause an upward surprise, the consensus central tendency sits comfortably below the 2.2% threshold. An unexpected surge in utility tariffs, transport fares, or exchange rate slippage late in the month could prove this forecast wrong.

Probably not — latest private estimates cluster at 1.8–2.0% and BBVA sees Q4 averaging ~1.6%, both well below the 2.2% threshold after September’s 1.9%. An unexpected price spike or data revision could still push the official print over, but that looks like a tail risk.

Likely no — private estimates from late October put October 2026 MoM inflation around 1.8–2.0%, below the 2.2% threshold, and the trend remains broadly disinflationary. The main risk is a surprise supply shock or price adjustment before the November 12 release pushing the figure above 2.2%.

Probably not — private-sector estimates for October 2026 cluster around 1.8–2.0% MoM, well below the 2.2% threshold, and the trend has been decelerating (August 1.7%, September 1.9%). BBVA Research expects Q4 monthly inflation to average around 1.6%. The main risk to this view would be an unexpected currency shock or administered price adjustment pushing the print higher, but current evidence makes that unlikely.

Probably not — Recent private estimates and the September print (1.9%) suggest October will likely be below 2.2%, with BBVA forecasting a Q4 average of ~1.6%. A sharp, unexpected price shock could push it above 2.2%.

Probably not — the latest confirmed print (September at 1.9% MoM) and private-sector estimates for October (1.8%–2.0%) both sit below the 2.2% threshold, and BBVA sees Q4 monthly inflation averaging around 1.6%. The deceleration trend under Milei's program makes a jump above 2.2% unlikely, though September did tick up from August's 1.7%. The main risk is an upside surprise from FX depreciation or tariff/utility adjustments pushing October above expectations.

Probably not — September came in at 1.9% MoM and private October estimates cluster around 1.8–2.0%, below the 2.2% threshold, with BBVA expecting further easing. However, the official INDEC print isn't due until 2026-11-12 and risks are tilted higher (peso/fiscal shocks, seasonal food/regulated price moves), so an upside surprise is plausible.

Probably not — recent private estimates put October inflation around 1.8-2.0%, and the easing trend plus BBVA's Q4 forecast of ~1.6% monthly averages suggest a print above 2.2% is unlikely. The main upside risk is that September already ticked up to 1.9% from 1.7%, and regulated-price or FX pass-through could push a hot print, but consensus still sits well below the threshold. I'd need a significant upside surprise in the November 12 INDEC release to see this resolve YES.