FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37%
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— AI vs prediction markets

Can AI beat Polymarket and Kalshi?

Every day ten AI models forecast the most-traded questions on Polymarket and Kalshi, without seeing the price. When each market settles, we score who was closer.

Settled
76
AI closer
26
Market closer
49
Brier AI / market
0.204 / 0.156

Where the AIs disagree with the market

Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 1

Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?

10 AIs
77%
Polymarket
19%

AI more bullish by 58 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?

10 AIs
64%
Polymarket
14%

AI more bullish by 50 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

10 AIs
17%
Polymarket
60%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

10 AIs
20%
Polymarket
63%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
63%
Polymarket
22%

AI more bullish by 41 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
70%
Polymarket
36%

AI more bullish by 34 pts

Open questions

Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 2

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

10 AIs
61%
Polymarket
67%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 3

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

10 AIs
5%
Polymarket
12%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?

10 AIs
64%
Polymarket
14%

AI more bullish by 50 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
70%
Polymarket
63%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?

10 AIs
29%
Polymarket
32%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
67%
Polymarket
72%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
40%
Polymarket
74%

AI more bearish by 34 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
43%
Polymarket
40%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

10 AIs
12%
Kalshi
21%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 3

Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

10 AIs
24%
Polymarket
7%

AI more bullish by 17 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

10 AIs
37%
Polymarket
25%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 7

Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election?

10 AIs
48%
Kalshi
60%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
47%
Polymarket
66%

AI more bearish by 19 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

10 AIs
63%
Polymarket
22%

AI more bullish by 41 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 29

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

10 AIs
42%
Polymarket
42%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Oct 28

Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

10 AIs
12%
Polymarket
9%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?

10 AIs
9%
Kalshi
5%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Nov 10

Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?

10 AIs
96%
Kalshi
90%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
70%
Polymarket
71%
Politics · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

10 AIs
24%
Kalshi
7%

AI more bullish by 17 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
48%
Polymarket
33%

AI more bullish by 15 pts
Politics · Kalshi Closes Nov 4

Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?

10 AIs
15%
Kalshi
16%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 1

Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?

10 AIs
77%
Polymarket
19%

AI more bullish by 58 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

10 AIs
69%
Polymarket
76%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
70%
Polymarket
36%

AI more bullish by 34 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

10 AIs
17%
Polymarket
60%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Politics · Kalshi Closes Nov 3

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect before Nov 3, 2026?

10 AIs
8%
Kalshi
5%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

10 AIs
78%
Polymarket
94%

AI more bearish by 16 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Oct 25

Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

10 AIs
77%
Polymarket
69%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

10 AIs
63%
Polymarket
38%

AI more bullish by 25 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

10 AIs
51%
Polymarket
38%
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

10 AIs
20%
Polymarket
63%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Oct 28

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

10 AIs
44%
Polymarket
28%

AI more bullish by 17 pts
Politics · Polymarket Closes Nov 4

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

10 AIs
60%
Polymarket
91%

AI more bearish by 30 pts

Recently settled

Politics · Polymarket Settled NO

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

10 AIs
50%
Polymarket
62%

AI was closer
Politics · Polymarket Settled NO

Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?

10 AIs
5%
Polymarket
8%

AI was closer
Politics · Polymarket Settled NO

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

10 AIs
12%
Polymarket
10%

Polymarket was closer
Politics · Polymarket Settled NO

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

10 AIs
69%
Polymarket
67%

Polymarket was closer
Politics · Polymarket Settled NO

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?

10 AIs
47%
Polymarket
72%

AI was closer
Politics · Polymarket Settled YES

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

10 AIs
75%
Polymarket
94%

Polymarket was closer
Politics · Kalshi Settled YES

Will Katie Zacharia be out as White House Press Secretary before Nov 1, 2026?

10 AIs
7%
Kalshi
14%

Kalshi was closer

Which AI beats the market most?

# Model Brier Right side Beat market
1 Kimi K3 0.203 72% 29/76
2 GLM 5.3 0.204 67% 32/76
3 GPT-5.6 Luna 0.206 65% 27/76
4 Qwen 3.8 Max 0.208 67% 32/76
5 Mistral Medium 3.5 0.209 65% 30/74
6 Gemini 3.8 Flash 0.212 68% 29/76
7 MiMo V2.5 Pro 0.214 63% 27/76
8 Grok 4.6 0.215 67% 21/76
9 DeepSeek V4 Pro 0.216 65% 40/76
10 Claude Sonnet 5 0.226 67% 27/76
11 Meta Muse Spark 1.3 0.243 50% 1/2

Market Brier on the same questions: 0.156.

FAQ

Can AI beat Polymarket and Kalshi?

After 76 settled markets, the AI panel was closer 26 times and the market 49 times. Brier score (lower is better): AI 0.204, market 0.156.

How does this work?

Every day TuringStats takes the busiest questions on Polymarket and Kalshi. Ten AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek and more) read the resolution rules and a fresh web news brief, then each gives its own chance of YES. They never see the market price.

How are the AI and the market graded?

When a market settles we compare the AI panel average with the market price at the moment the AIs voted. The one closer to the real outcome wins that question; across many questions we use the Brier score, where always saying 50% scores 0.25.

Can I ask the AI models my own question?

Yes. Ask Multiple AI sends one question to all ten models at once and shows each answer side by side.

Is this betting advice?

No. TuringStats does not offer trading or wagering and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi.

Have your own question? Ask all ten AIs at once.