GPT-5.6 Luna
82% yes
Likely yes — reports that Katie Zacharia is already transitioning out after only a few days create strong pressure to name a replacement within the remaining two weeks. The main uncertainty is that the administration could leave the role vacant or use an acting/interim spokesperson without making a qualifying permanent appointment.
Claude Sonnet 5
62% yes
Likely yes — given the rapid turnover and urgency after Zacharia's abrupt exit just days into the role, the administration faces strong pressure to name a permanent (non-interim) replacement within two weeks, and Trump's team has historically moved quickly on such announcements. Uncertainty remains since no successor has been confirmed yet and any delay or appointment of only an 'acting' secretary would resolve NO.
Gemini 3.8 Flash
78% yes
Likely yes — with Katie Zacharia already transitioning out after just days on the job, the White House faces strong pressure to formally fill the high-profile position quickly, and there are roughly two weeks left in October. Trump tends to announce personnel moves rapidly via social media once an opening occurs. However, delays could arise if the administration relies temporarily on an acting or interim spokesperson, which is explicitly disqualified under the resolution rules.
Grok 4.6
62% yes
Likely yes — after Zacharia’s abrupt exit they will want a named permanent replacement, and two weeks is ample time for an announcement. The main thing that could prove this wrong is if they leave an acting or unnamed fill-in in place past Oct 31.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
85% yes
Likely yes — with Zacharia reportedly transitioning out after only a few days, the White House will want to fill the visible press secretary role quickly, and an announcement by Oct 31 is very plausible. The main risk is that the administration delays a permanent replacement or uses an acting/interim appointment, which would not qualify.
Qwen 3.8 Max
78% yes
Likely yes — the White House press secretary role is essential and the administration will face strong pressure to name a replacement quickly after Zacharia's abrupt departure, with 13 days remaining before the deadline. The Trump administration historically moves fast on personnel announcements, and going without a named press secretary into November would be politically awkward. The main risk is that internal chaos or difficulty finding a willing candidate could delay the announcement, or they could rely on an acting/interim person which wouldn't qualify.
Mistral Medium 3.5
75% yes
Likely yes — the abrupt departure of Katie Zacharia after just days on the job creates urgency, and the White House typically fills such a high-profile role quickly. The main risk is if Trump delays the announcement past the deadline for strategic or logistical reasons.
Kimi K3
85% yes
Likely yes — with Zacharia already reported transitioning out after just days, the White House has strong incentive to name a permanent successor quickly, and Trump historically announces high-profile replacements fast. The 13-day window to Oct 31 is ample for an announcement, which need only be made (not a start date) to resolve YES. Main risk: the administration delays, names only an acting/interim secretary (which wouldn't qualify), or the reports of her departure prove premature.
GLM 5.3
88% yes
Likely yes — Zacharia is reportedly leaving after days, and the White House almost always names a replacement quickly; two weeks is ample time. Risk: an 'acting' designation wouldn't qualify, or the transition could drag past Oct 31.
MiMo V2.5 Pro
72% yes
Likely yes — the rapid departure of Katie Zacharia after only a few days creates strong pressure to announce a permanent replacement quickly, and the Trump administration typically moves fast on staffing. With nearly two weeks remaining until the deadline and an active vacancy, an announcement is probable. The main risk is if Trump decides to operate with an acting or interim role for an extended period, which would not count toward resolution.
News the AIs read (Oct 18)
- On 2026-10-09, Donald Trump announced Katie Zacharia as the new White House press secretary, and she began the role on 2026-10-13.
- On 2026-10-16, multiple outlets reported Zacharia was “transitioning out” of the press secretary role after only a few days.
- As of 2026-10-18, there is no confirmed official announcement in the provided information naming a replacement for Zacharia.
- The market question is about whether a **new** press secretary is announced by 2026-10-31; the latest confirmed fact available here is that Zacharia had already been announced and then reported as leaving, but no successor has been confirmed yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Katie Zacharia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market prices: Polymarket. TuringStats is not affiliated with Polymarket.