Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election?

Likely yes — both races are toss-ups, but the latest tracker gives Hinson a slightly larger lead than Marshall, and Iowa’s contest appears marginally more favorable to her. A late polling shift, turnout difference, or either candidate losing could reverse the margin comparison.

Probably not yes — Kansas is historically more Republican-leaning than Iowa's current swing status, and some polls show Marshall doing relatively better than Hinson, but both races are genuine toss-ups with conflicting polls (Marist had Hinson trailing by 8, Emerson had Marshall ahead by only 2). Given Kansas's deeper red lean typically producing larger GOP margins, Marshall's margin edging out Hinson's seems slightly more likely, but it's close to a coinflip. Certified results on Nov 3 could easily flip this either way.

Probably not — Kansas maintains a stronger structural Republican baseline than Iowa, giving Roger Marshall a higher partisan floor than Ashley Hinson. While both races are currently polling as tight toss-ups, Marshall is slightly more favored to achieve a wider net margin on election night. A surprise surge in Democratic turnout in Kansas or an unexpectedly strong performance by Hinson in rural Iowa could easily flip the comparison.

Likely a slight yes — latest polls give Hinson a +2 edge versus Marshall’s +1 in equally rated toss-ups, so her certified margin is modestly more likely to exceed his. High national correlation and earlier Iowa polls showing Hinson behind keep the gap tiny. A late Kansas GOP surge or Iowa Democratic overperformance would reverse it.

Probably not — the races are both toss-ups, but recent polling shows Hinson and Marshall in nearly identical tight contests, with no clear evidence Hinson’s margin will exceed Marshall’s. The main risk is that Iowa’s electorate shifts more Republican than Kansas’s by election day, which could flip the comparison.

Probably not — Iowa has been trending more Democratic in recent cycles, and earlier polling showed Turek with a larger lead than Hamilton had over Marshall, suggesting Hinson is slightly more vulnerable to losing (which would give her a negative margin). While the most recent polls show both incumbents narrowly ahead, the structural trend in Iowa favors a tighter or negative outcome for Hinson relative to Marshall in Kansas. A late break toward Hinson or a polling miss in Kansas could flip this to YES.

Probably not — Latest polls show both races as near toss-ups, with Hinson slightly ahead in one poll but trailing in others, while Marshall is narrowly leading or tied. The Sept. Marist poll had Hinson trailing by 8, which could mean a larger negative margin than Marshall's, flipping the comparison. If Hinson underperforms polls while Marshall outperforms, the difference could swing negative.

Truly a coin flip — both races are rated toss-ups with nearly identical recent polling (Hinson +2, Marshall +1 in the latest tracker), so neither candidate has a meaningful edge in expected margin. Hinson's polls have ranged from trailing by 8 to leading by 2, while Marshall's have been consistently tight, giving Hinson higher variance but a similar central tendency. The symmetric resolution rule (tie at 0.00 resolves Yes) adds only a negligible nudge, so I see no real edge either way.

Probably not — both races are toss-ups, but Kansas is the more Republican-leaning state and Marshall is an incumbent polling at 47-48%, while Hinson has trailed in some recent Iowa polls, suggesting Marshall's margin is somewhat more likely to exceed Hinson's. The main risk is that Iowa's race breaks late toward Hinson or Kansas tightens further, flipping the comparison; with both margins near zero, small polling errors dominate the outcome.

Likely yes — both races are toss-ups but Iowa's fundamentals (Hinson's stronger candidate profile, slightly better polling position at 47-45) suggest she could win by a modest margin, while Kansas's Marshall faces a surprisingly tight race against Hamilton that could leave him with a narrow or even negative margin. The main risk is that both win by similar small margins, or that Marshall runs it up in redder Kansas while Hinson only narrowly edges Turek.