FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37%
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— AI vs prediction markets

Can AI beat Polymarket and Kalshi?

Every day ten AI models forecast the most-traded questions on Polymarket and Kalshi, without seeing the price. When each market settles, we score who was closer.

Settled
76
AI closer
26
Market closer
49
Brier AI / market
0.204 / 0.156

Where the AIs disagree with the market

Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
11%
Kalshi
82%

AI more bearish by 71 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 9

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
14%
Polymarket
77%

AI more bearish by 63 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 10

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

10 AIs
26%
Polymarket
78%

AI more bearish by 52 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 1

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

10 AIs
24%
Polymarket
67%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
64%
Kalshi
24%

AI more bullish by 40 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 3

Will on! Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 124 ?

10 AIs
48%
Kalshi
17%

AI more bullish by 31 pts

Open questions

Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will Bank of Canada maintain the current rate at their December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
65%
Kalshi
70%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 10

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in November 2026?

10 AIs
13%
Kalshi
6%
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 10

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

10 AIs
26%
Polymarket
78%

AI more bearish by 52 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
11%
Kalshi
82%

AI more bearish by 71 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 13

Will US PPI MoM for October 2026 be above 1.2%?

10 AIs
30%
Kalshi
12%

AI more bullish by 18 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 9

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
14%
Polymarket
77%

AI more bearish by 63 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 9

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
64%
Kalshi
24%

AI more bullish by 40 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 20

Will United Kingdom retail sales MoM for October 2026 be above 1.5%?

10 AIs
12%
Kalshi
12%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 12

Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for October 2026 be above 2.2%?

10 AIs
21%
Kalshi
25%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 26

Mexico unemployment rate in October 2026?

10 AIs
35%
Kalshi
12%

AI more bullish by 23 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 23

Will the Bank of Israel cut 1-25bps at the November Monetary Committee meeting?

10 AIs
23%
Kalshi
41%

AI more bearish by 18 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 19

Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

10 AIs
40%
Kalshi
21%

AI more bullish by 19 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 10

South Africa unemployment rate in Q3 2026?

10 AIs
24%
Kalshi
8%

AI more bullish by 16 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 7

Will BP Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 106 ?

10 AIs
44%
Kalshi
66%

AI more bearish by 22 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 7

Will Kroger Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 94 ?

10 AIs
68%
Kalshi
59%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q3 2026 be above 1.2%?

10 AIs
13%
Kalshi
5%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 3

Will on! Point of Sale Growth for October 2026 be above 124 ?

10 AIs
48%
Kalshi
17%

AI more bullish by 31 pts
Economy · Polymarket Closes Dec 1

Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?

10 AIs
24%
Polymarket
67%

AI more bearish by 43 pts
Economy · Kalshi Closes Dec 1

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

10 AIs
73%
Kalshi
63%
Economy · Kalshi Closes Nov 10

Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in October 2026?

10 AIs
50%
Kalshi
47%

Recently settled

Economy · Kalshi Settled YES

Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

10 AIs
78%
Kalshi
90%

Kalshi was closer
Economy · Polymarket Settled YES

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
80%
Polymarket
78%

AI was closer
Economy · Kalshi Settled NO

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
26%
Kalshi
26%

Kalshi was closer
Economy · Kalshi Settled YES

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

10 AIs
64%
Kalshi
76%

Kalshi was closer

Which AI beats the market most?

# Model Brier Right side Beat market
1 Kimi K3 0.203 72% 29/76
2 GLM 5.3 0.204 67% 32/76
3 GPT-5.6 Luna 0.206 65% 27/76
4 Qwen 3.8 Max 0.208 67% 32/76
5 Mistral Medium 3.5 0.209 65% 30/74
6 Gemini 3.8 Flash 0.212 68% 29/76
7 MiMo V2.5 Pro 0.214 63% 27/76
8 Grok 4.6 0.215 67% 21/76
9 DeepSeek V4 Pro 0.216 65% 40/76
10 Claude Sonnet 5 0.226 67% 27/76
11 Meta Muse Spark 1.3 0.243 50% 1/2

Market Brier on the same questions: 0.156.

FAQ

Can AI beat Polymarket and Kalshi?

After 76 settled markets, the AI panel was closer 26 times and the market 49 times. Brier score (lower is better): AI 0.204, market 0.156.

How does this work?

Every day TuringStats takes the busiest questions on Polymarket and Kalshi. Ten AI models (GPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok, DeepSeek and more) read the resolution rules and a fresh web news brief, then each gives its own chance of YES. They never see the market price.

How are the AI and the market graded?

When a market settles we compare the AI panel average with the market price at the moment the AIs voted. The one closer to the real outcome wins that question; across many questions we use the Brier score, where always saying 50% scores 0.25.

Can I ask the AI models my own question?

Yes. Ask Multiple AI sends one question to all ten models at once and shows each answer side by side.

Is this betting advice?

No. TuringStats does not offer trading or wagering and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi.

Have your own question? Ask all ten AIs at once.