Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 690,000?

Likely yes — the FAIR Plan had already reached 696,562 policies by June 30, 2026, and continued wildfire-insurance pressures make a September total above 690,000 plausible despite normal quarter-to-quarter churn. The main risk is that the June figure was a temporary peak and substantial policy reductions or transfers lowered the inventory below the threshold by September 30.

Likely yes — PIF was 696,562 at June 30, 2026 and up substantially from 642,010 a year earlier, showing a strong growth trend driven by continued insurer withdrawals from the voluntary market; Q3 typically doesn't see sharp reversals. Main risk: a leveling-off or slight decline in FAIR Plan growth during Q3 2026 could push the count back under 690,000.

Likely yes — California FAIR Plan policies in force reached 696,562 as of June 30, 2026, and given persistent private market withdrawals in California wildfire zones, policy counts are expected to maintain an upward trajectory or stay stable. A net contraction of over 6,500 policies across a single quarter would be unprecedented under current market dynamics. The primary risk is sudden mass depopulation or unexpected regulatory actions shifting policies rapidly back to standard voluntary insurers before the end of Q3.

Likely yes — June 30 2026 PIF already stood at 696,562 and the plan has been expanding for years as private carriers exit, so a drop of more than 6.5 k policies in one quarter would be unusual. The main risk is that the Sept 30 figure (still unpublished) could show a reversal if recent market reforms or depopulation efforts took hold faster than expected.

Likely yes — the June 30, 2026 count was already 696,562, comfortably above the 690,000 threshold, and the FAIR Plan has shown persistent growth as the insurer of last resort amid California’s hardening property market. Even with some seasonal or depopulation-driven declines, a drop of more than 6,500 policies in one quarter would be unusually large. The main risk is a sharp acceleration in depopulation or bulk policy transfers in Q3 2026 that could push the September count below 690,000.

Likely yes — the June 30, 2026 count was 696,562, already above the 690,000 threshold, and the FAIR Plan has been on a strong growth trajectory (from ~642K in Sept 2025 to ~697K in June 2026). A net decline of over 6,500 policies in a single quarter would be unusual given recent trends, though a sudden acceleration of insurers returning to the California market or a large batch of cancellations could theoretically push it below the threshold.

Likely yes — June 2026 PIF was 696,562, and the trend suggests stability or growth. The main risk is a sharp Q3 decline, but no evidence supports that.

Likely yes — the most recent confirmed figure (696,562 on June 30, 2026) is already above 690,000, and FAIR Plan exposure has been on a strong multi-year growth trend as private insurers retreat from California. The main risk is a seasonal or policy-driven decline in Q3 2026 (e.g., nonrenewals, depopulation efforts, or homeowners finding private coverage) pushing the count below the threshold, but a drop of more than ~6,500 policies in one quarter would be unusual given recent momentum.

Likely yes — FAIR Plan policies have been trending up, from 642,010 on Sep 30, 2025 to 696,562 by June 30, 2026, so holding above 690,000 three months later is the natural continuation. The main risk is that insurer re-entry into California (State Farm, Allstate expansions) during 2026 pulled policies back off the FAIR Plan enough to drop the count below 690,000 by September.

Likely yes — the June 30, 2026 count of 696,562 already sits above the 690,000 threshold, and FAIR Plan PIF has grown sharply year over year (642,010 in Sept 2025 vs ~697k in June 2026). The main risk is a seasonal or post-renewal dip between June and September, or slower growth after rate changes and non-renewal easing, which could push the number just under 690k.