FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37% FCC 1-2 PHI · 50% COL 2-1 DCU · 54% NEW 1-0 CFM · 47% AL- 3-0 AL- · 65% COR 1-1 VIT · 42% SPO 1-2 FCD · 60% ST. 2-1 SAN · 49% ACM 1-1 INT · 42% EST 0-1 LEM · 44% AND 1-2 KVC · 43% SKB 0-2 UNI · 62% BAR 3-0 ALA · 64% AST 1-0 FUL · 46% DEP 0-0 TAL · 37%
Economy · Kalshi · Closes Dec 1, 2026

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

10 AI models
73% yes

10 lean yes · 0 lean no

Kalshi when AIs voted
63% yes

Now 76%

What each AI says

GPT-5.6 Luna

78% yes

Likely yes — reported plans for a mid-November 2026 IPO, confidential S-1 filing, and investor preparations make an SEC effectiveness, pricing, or ticker assignment before the December 1 deadline more likely than not. The main risk is that market conditions, regulatory delays, or an IPO postponement prevent any qualifying confirmation by the cutoff.

Claude Sonnet 5

62% yes

Likely but not certain yes — reports point to a mid-November IPO push with marketing starting week of Nov 9, which would plausibly lead to pricing/ticker assignment before Dec 1, but timelines for confidential S-1 processes often slip and valuation disagreements ($1.5T vs $2T) suggest the deal isn't fully locked. The main risk to this forecast is a delay pushing pricing into December or later, or the process stalling amid valuation negotiations.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

78% yes

Likely yes — reports indicate Anthropic is targeting an IPO timeline in mid-to-late November 2026, which makes securing a ticker symbol, pricing, or SEC S-1 effectiveness prior to December 1 very probable. Ticker assignment in particular often happens early in the formal listing process once the public S-1 is filed. However, any unexpected regulatory roadblocks, valuation disputes, or broader market volatility could delay the filing and push these milestones into 2027.

Grok 4.6

62% yes

Likely yes — confidential S-1 plus mid-November roadshow rumors put effectiveness/pricing in late November, well before the Dec 1 cutoff. Unofficial reports and an Oct 14 investor day already show active prep. Could miss if SEC review or valuation talks slip past Thanksgiving.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

78% yes

Likely yes — multiple credible reports point to a November 2026 IPO timeline, and Anthropic has already confidentially filed an S-1 and held investor meetings, which are strong preparatory signals. The main risk is that the reported timeline slips or the SEC process takes longer than expected, pushing confirmation past Dec 1.

Qwen 3.8 Max

75% yes

Likely yes — multiple credible reports point to a November IPO with marketing expected the week of Nov 9 and trading possibly before Nov 26, and Anthropic has already confidentially filed its S-1 and held investor presentations, all consistent with an imminent public offering. The main risk is a last-minute delay due to market volatility, regulatory holdups, or a strategic decision to postpone, but the convergence of signals makes confirmation before Dec 1 the base case.

Mistral Medium 3.5

75% yes

Likely yes — Reports strongly suggest Anthropic is targeting a mid-November IPO with SEC processes underway. The main risk is a last-minute delay or regulatory hurdle pushing confirmation past December 1.

Kimi K3

65% yes

Likely yes — Anthropic has confidentially filed a draft S-1 and reports point to marketing beginning the week of Nov 9 with trading possibly before Nov 26, which would require the S-1 to be declared effective before Dec 1, satisfying the resolution criteria. The investor day with Q3 financials and active valuation discussions signal strong IPO intent on an accelerated timeline. Main risk: slippage from unconfirmed reports, market volatility, or a decision to delay into 2027 could push SEC effectiveness past the Dec 1 deadline.

GLM 5.3

72% yes

Likely yes — multiple credible reports point to a November 2026 IPO with marketing starting the week of Nov 9 and pricing/trading before Nov 26, which would require SEC effectiveness or ticker assignment before Dec 1. The confidential S-1 filing and investor roadshow-like gathering suggest the process is well advanced. Main risk: IPO timelines often slip, and the reported dates are unconfirmed, so a delay into December or beyond would resolve this No.

MiMo V2.5 Pro

88% yes

Likely yes — multiple credible reports indicate Anthropic is targeting a November 2026 IPO with marketing beginning the week of November 9 and trading possible before November 26, well before the December 1 deadline. The company has already confidentially filed an S-1 and held investor presentations, which are strong indicators of an advanced IPO process. The main risk is an unexpected delay or market downturn pushing the timeline past December 1, but the current trajectory suggests confirmation will occur within the window.

News the AIs read (Oct 18)
- Anthropic has **not officially announced an IPO date yet**; as of **2026-10-18**, reports say it has confidentially submitted a draft S-1, but the public S-1 has **not** been released and no SEC effectiveness, pricing, or ticker assignment has been confirmed. - The latest reported timeline is **mid-November 2026** for a possible IPO process, with marketing expected to begin the **week of 2026-11-09** and trading possibly before **2026-11-26**, but these dates remain **unconfirmed reports** rather than an official announcement. - Reuters reported on **2026-10-15** that some investors were considering a **$1.5 trillion** valuation for a planned November IPO, while earlier reports had pointed to about **$2 trillion**; Anthropic has not confirmed either figure publicly. - Anthropic held an investor gathering on **2026-10-14** and presented Q3 financials, which is a sign of IPO preparation but **not** an official IPO announcement. - There is **no confirmed SEC-effective registration statement, pricing, or exchange ticker** for Anthropic as of **2026-10-18**, so no official IPO confirmation has occurred yet. - The question’s outcome would be decided by the IPO confirmation event itself, which is **not yet publicly known**; if it happens later, the market would resolve immediately on that event date.
Resolution rules
If Anthropic confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Dec 1, 2026.

Market prices: Kalshi. TuringStats is not affiliated with Kalshi.

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