Will the South African Reserve Bank hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

Probably not — the September hike and SARB’s warning about rising inflation keep another 1–25 bp increase plausible, but slower-than-forecast inflation and the still-elevated 7.25% rate favor holding at the November meeting. A renewed energy shock or upside inflation surprise prompting decisive action would prove this call wrong.

Probably not — SARB just hiked 25bps in September and signaled decisive action on inflation, but recent data shows inflation rising slower than expected, reducing urgency for a back-to-back hike; a hold seems more likely after consecutive tightening. Could prove wrong if energy/inflation pressures spike further before the 19 November meeting.

Probably not — while the SARB delivered a 25 bps hike in September and maintains hawkish guidance, recent data show inflation rising more slowly than projected, making a hold the more typical baseline after a prior move. A 25 bps hike remains a strong alternative scenario given lingering energy pressures and the bank's pledge to act decisively. Fresh inflation upside or currency volatility before November 19 could readily prompt another 25 bps hike.

Probably not — SARB already hiked 25 bps in September to 7.25% and October inflation has come in slower than expected, making a consecutive November hike less likely. The MPR still flags rising inflation and energy risks plus a willingness to act, so a 25 bp move cannot be ruled out if incoming data or the rand deteriorate. A surprise hawkish surprise or meeting cancellation would be the main ways this call fails.

Probably not — the SARB already hiked in September and October commentary suggests inflation is rising more slowly than forecast, reducing pressure for back-to-back hikes. However, the Bank’s stated hawkishness and energy/inflation risks keep a small 25bp hike live. A November hold is the base case, but a hike would not be surprising if the MPC prioritizes anchoring expectations.

Likely a close call leaning slightly against a hike — the SARB's hawkish October language ('act decisively') and rising inflation expectations support another 25bps move, but the fact that they just hiked in September and recent data shows inflation rising more slowly than forecast gives them room to pause. The main risk to this view is if energy prices or rand weakness intensify before the meeting, pushing them toward back-to-back hikes.

Likely yes — SARB’s October review signals inflation risks and a willingness to act, while recent data shows slower-than-expected inflation but persistent pressures. The main thing that could prove me wrong is a sudden easing of energy or inflation concerns before the meeting.

Probably not — the SARB just hiked 25bps in September to 7.25%, and central banks rarely hike at consecutive meetings unless inflation is clearly accelerating. The October review flags rising inflation (4.4% average in 2026) and hawkish rhetoric, but recent coverage notes inflation has risen more slowly than forecast, which argues for a hold in November. The main risk to this call is a fresh energy-driven inflation spike or rand weakness forcing a back-to-back hike.

Probably not — after the September 2026 hike to 7.25%, SARB would typically pause to assess transmission, but the October MPR's hawkish inflation language (4.4% average, "act decisively") keeps a follow-up 25bp hike live. I'd put a hike at roughly one-third odds versus a hold. A sharper-than-expected inflation print or rand weakness before 19 November would push this higher.

Probably not — SARB hiked 25bps in September and inflation is rising but still near target, so a second consecutive hike is possible but not the base case. The October MPR's hawkish tone and energy-driven inflation risk support further tightening, though slower-than-forecast inflation gives room to pause. What could prove me wrong is a sharp inflation or rand shock before 19 November forcing another hike.