Results
Baseball results Wednesday 16 September 2026: AI predictions review
AI baseball results for Wednesday 16 September 2026: the 10-model consensus went 8 of 13, with Colorado's rout of San Diego the day's biggest upset.
Thirteen matches went through the TuringStats model stack on Wednesday 16 September 2026, and the 10-model consensus came out of the day with 8 of 13 correct. It was a steady rather than spectacular return: the strongest agreements mostly landed, and the damage was concentrated in a handful of games where the models were close to unanimous and the scoreboard went the other way.
The biggest surprise of the night was in Denver, where Colorado Rockies beat San Diego Padres 9-3. All 10 models had backed the Padres, with an average confidence of 61%, and none of them saw a six-run margin coming the other way. Two NPB fixtures and a pair of MLB upsets made up the rest of the misses.
Thirteen games, eight correct: the consensus stack finished Wednesday at 8 of 13.
Where the AI got it right
The cleanest call of the day came in Houston, where Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals prediction drew 100% support from the 10 models at an average confidence of 59%. The consensus had the score at 5-3; the Astros won 4-2, and the result never seriously drifted from the script.
Toronto produced a similarly one-sided read. Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers prediction was unanimous across all 10 models, most commonly at 4-2 with an average confidence of 58%. The Blue Jays won 5-1, a wider margin than forecast but the same outcome.
Minnesota was a narrower affair but still a correct call. Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees prediction carried 90% of the models at 59% average confidence, with 6-4 the most common scoreline. The Twins took it 5-4, one run tighter than the consensus had imagined.
In Chicago, Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves prediction was backed by 80% of the models at 57% average confidence and a 4-3 consensus score. The Cubs won 8-4, comfortably clearing the projected margin.
The day's other correct calls were less emphatic but no less useful: Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox prediction (80% of models, 55% average confidence, Rangers won 4-2), Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins prediction (70%, 59%, Marlins won 4-2), St.Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants prediction (60%, 57%, Giants won 6-5) and, in NPB, Orix Buffaloes vs Fukuoka S. Hawks prediction (100%, 58%, Hawks won 4-0).
Where it got it wrong
Colorado's 9-3 win over San Diego was the day's clearest failure. The consensus was San Diego at 100% of the 10 models, with a most common score of 7-8 and an average confidence of 61%. The Rockies won by six, which no part of the model stack had priced in.
The Los Angeles Angels' 2-1 win over Seattle was a tighter miss but a miss all the same. Seattle carried 90% of the models at 59% average confidence, with 3-5 the most common scoreline. The Angels won by a single run in a game the consensus expected to go the other way by two.
Cleveland's 6-3 win over the Chicago White Sox was the least unanimous of the misses: the White Sox had 60% support at 58% average confidence, with 4-5 the most common score. A three-run Cleveland margin overturned a slim majority.
The New York Mets were backed by 90% of the models at 55% average confidence, with 5-4 the most common score. Baltimore won 7-1, a six-run swing against a near-consensus call.
The day's heaviest confidence miss came in NPB. Chiba Lotte Marines were backed by all 10 models at an average confidence of 67% — the highest of any match on the card — with 5-2 the most common score. Rakuten Gold. Eagles won 4-0.
Models of the day
Qwen 3.8 Max and GLM 5.3 shared top billing with 9 of 13 correct each, one clear of the field. DeepSeek V4 Pro and MiMo V2.5 Pro followed at 8 of 13, matching the consensus record exactly.
A group of five sat at 7 of 13: GPT-5.6 Luna, Claude Sonnet 5, Mistral Medium 3.5, Grok 4.6 and Kimi K3. Gemini 3.8 Flash finished last on the day with 5 of 13, well adrift of the consensus and four behind the leading pair.
Full results
- MLB: Texas Rangers 4–2 Boston Red Sox — consensus Texas Rangers win (80%) RIGHT
- MLB: Houston Astros 4–2 Kansas City Royals — consensus Houston Astros win (100%) RIGHT
- MLB: Colorado Rockies 9–3 San Diego Padres — consensus San Diego Padres win (100%) WRONG
- MLB: Los Angeles Angels 2–1 Seattle Mariners — consensus Seattle Mariners win (90%) WRONG
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks 2–4 Miami Marlins — consensus Miami Marlins win (70%) RIGHT
- MLB: Cleveland Guardians 6–3 Chicago White Sox — consensus Chicago White Sox win (60%) WRONG
- MLB: St.Louis Cardinals 5–6 San Francisco Giants — consensus San Francisco Giants win (60%) RIGHT
- MLB: Minnesota Twins 5–4 New York Yankees — consensus Minnesota Twins win (90%) RIGHT
- MLB: Toronto Blue Jays 5–1 Detroit Tigers — consensus Toronto Blue Jays win (100%) RIGHT
- MLB: New York Mets 1–7 Baltimore Orioles — consensus New York Mets win (90%) WRONG
- MLB: Chicago Cubs 8–4 Atlanta Braves — consensus Chicago Cubs win (80%) RIGHT
- NPB: Chiba Lotte Marines 0–4 Rakuten Gold. Eagles — consensus Chiba Lotte Marines win (100%) WRONG
- NPB: Orix Buffaloes 0–4 Fukuoka S. Hawks — consensus Fukuoka S. Hawks win (100%) RIGHT
Thursday's card is already loaded, with the full 10-model consensus and projected scorelines available on the today's baseball predictions page.
Next up: today's baseball predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
