How often does the home team win in football?
Updated 22 October 2026
Short answer
A little under half the time. Across 1,444 graded football matches, the home team won 45.4%, 22.6% were draws and the away team won 31.9%. Always picking the home team is therefore right 45.4% of the time, which is the bar any prediction method has to beat; the majority of 10 AI models beat it at 49.9%.
Home advantage and AI
AI models can lean towards home teams and favourites. When all 10 models agree, they are right 62.4% of the time, well above the home-win rate. See how accurate AI football predictions are.
Questions
How often do away teams win in football?
31.9% of matches in our sample.
Ask 10 AIs before your next match.
Free picks for every match, every model graded, and your own questions answered by the whole council.