How often do football matches end in a draw?
Updated 22 October 2026
About one match in four or five. In our sample of 1,444 graded football matches, 22.6% ended in a draw, 45.4% in a home win and 31.9% in an away win. Draws are the hardest result to predict, because a draw is rarely the single most likely outcome.
Why draws matter for predictions
Because draws are common but rarely the single most likely result, any method that always picks a winner loses those matches. That is part of why the best AI models pick the right result about 51.7% of the time, not 70 or 80%.
See the data
Every match we cover is graded on the AI leaderboard. Predictions for today's matches show when the models expect a tight game.
Questions
How often does the home team win in football?
45.4% of the time in our sample, so always backing the home team is right a little under half the time.
Which score is the most common draw?
1-1, followed by 0-0.
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