Results
Baseball results Tuesday 15 September 2026: AI predictions review
AI models called just 3 of 13 baseball results correctly on Tuesday 15 September 2026, including a 10-1 rout that none of them saw coming.
Tuesday 15 September 2026 delivered one of the most chastening days of the season for the AI consensus. Across 13 matches in MLB and NPB, the models returned a record of 3 of 13 correct — a hit rate of 23 per cent that even the most cautious pre-match confidence figures could not dress up.
The biggest surprise came at Rogers Centre, where Toronto Blue Jays were backed by 100 per cent of the 10 models to beat Detroit Tigers. The Tigers won 10-1. It was not a narrow miss. It was a demolition, and it set the tone for an evening in which the consensus was repeatedly on the wrong side of lopsided scorelines.
The scoreboard after a day when the models called only 3 of 13 results correctly.
Where the AI got it right
The day's one clear win came in Denver, where Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres prediction saw all 10 models side with the Padres. San Diego won 8-7, edging a high-scoring affair that the consensus had pegged at 5-6. The margin was tighter than expected, but the result was correct.
In St. Louis, St.Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants prediction produced the second success. Eight of 10 models favoured the Giants, who won 3-10. The most common predicted score was 4-5, so the actual six-run margin was wider than the consensus anticipated, but the pick held.
The third and final correct call came in NPB, where Yokohama BayStars vs Yomiuri Giants prediction was unanimous. All 10 models backed Yokohama, and the BayStars won 13-2. The consensus score of 4-3 was wildly conservative — the actual result was a rout — but the winner was right.
Where it got it wrong
The misses were frequent and, in several cases, emphatic. At Angel Stadium, Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners prediction had 90 per cent of models on Seattle. The Angels won 6-4. The consensus score of 2-4 suggested a low-scoring Mariners win; instead the Angels put up six.
In Arizona, Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins prediction saw 70 per cent of models pick Miami. The Diamondbacks won 8-7. The consensus had expected a 3-5 Marlins victory, but the game turned into a slugfest that Arizona edged by a single run.
Washington Nationals 6-3 Philadelphia Phillies was another unanimous miss. All 10 models backed Philadelphia, with a most common score of 4-6. The Nationals won by three. Similarly, Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers prediction was a 100 per cent consensus for Toronto at 4-2. Detroit won 10-1 — the day's most emphatic upset.
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles prediction had 70 per cent of models on the Mets. Baltimore won 5-7. The consensus score of 5-4 was close in total runs but on the wrong side of the winner.
At Wrigley Field, Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves prediction saw 80 per cent of models favour the Cubs. Atlanta won 3-6. The consensus had expected a 5-3 Cubs win; the Braves flipped the script.
Minnesota Twins 1-8 New York Yankees was a 90 per cent consensus for the Twins at 6-4. The Yankees won by seven. And in NPB, three further unanimous or near-unanimous calls went astray: Hanshin Tigers 1-4 Chunichi Dragons (100 per cent on Hanshin), Yakult Swallows 4-9 Hiroshima Carp (90 per cent on Yakult), and Nippon Ham Fighters 6-7 Chiba Lotte Marines (100 per cent on Nippon Ham).
Models of the day
Gemini 3.8 Flash was the best-performing model on a difficult day, correctly calling 6 of 13 matches. Mistral Medium 3.5, Qwen 3.8 Max and Kimi K3 each managed 5 of 13. GLM 5.3 followed with 4 of 13.
At the other end, Grok 4.6 was the worst performer with just 2 of 13 correct. GPT-5.6 Luna, Claude Sonnet 5, DeepSeek V4 Pro and MiMo V2.5 Pro each returned 3 of 13, matching the overall consensus record.
Full results
- MLB: Colorado Rockies 7–8 San Diego Padres — consensus San Diego Padres win (100%) RIGHT
- MLB: Los Angeles Angels 6–4 Seattle Mariners — consensus Seattle Mariners win (90%) WRONG
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks 8–7 Miami Marlins — consensus Miami Marlins win (70%) WRONG
- MLB: Washington Nationals 6–3 Philadelphia Phillies — consensus Philadelphia Phillies win (100%) WRONG
- MLB: Toronto Blue Jays 1–10 Detroit Tigers — consensus Toronto Blue Jays win (100%) WRONG
- MLB: New York Mets 5–7 Baltimore Orioles — consensus New York Mets win (70%) WRONG
- MLB: Chicago Cubs 3–6 Atlanta Braves — consensus Chicago Cubs win (80%) WRONG
- MLB: Minnesota Twins 1–8 New York Yankees — consensus Minnesota Twins win (90%) WRONG
- MLB: St.Louis Cardinals 3–10 San Francisco Giants — consensus San Francisco Giants win (80%) RIGHT
- NPB: Yokohama BayStars 13–2 Yomiuri Giants — consensus Yokohama BayStars win (100%) RIGHT
- NPB: Hanshin Tigers 1–4 Chunichi Dragons — consensus Hanshin Tigers win (100%) WRONG
- NPB: Yakult Swallows 4–9 Hiroshima Carp — consensus Yakult Swallows win (90%) WRONG
- NPB: Nippon Ham Fighters 6–7 Chiba Lotte Marines — consensus Nippon Ham Fighters win (100%) WRONG
For today's fixtures and the latest model consensus, visit TuringStats baseball predictions.
Next up: today's baseball predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
