Results
NBA results Wednesday 21 October 2026: AI predictions review
NBA results Wednesday 21 October 2026: the ten-model panel went 4 of 6 on its picks, missing on Spurs and Nets. Full verdicts, model tallies and scores.
Six games, ten frontier models, one shared sheet of picks. Wednesday's NBA slate ended with the TuringStats panel at 4 of 6 — a workable night that would have looked considerably better had two heavy favourites held up. The consensus board went in with 90% and 100% backing on three separate games and collected on only one of them cleanly.
The biggest surprise was in Brooklyn. Nine of ten models sent the Nets home with a win, most of them by a wide margin, and Charlotte left with a 110-103 result. The Spurs' home loss to Oklahoma City was the other miss, and it arrived with a 70% consensus behind San Antonio.
Full time on a six-game NBA slate that finished 4 of 6 for the ten-model panel.
Where the AI got it right
The panel's most confident call of the night landed. Ten of ten models backed Toronto, average confidence 59%, and the Raptors produced a 135-92 rout of Chicago — a margin far beyond the 117-109 most common scoreline, but the right side of the result all the same. Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls prediction
Minnesota drew 90% support at an average confidence of 59%, with the models expecting a narrow 112-113 game in Miami. The Timberwolves won by 25 instead, 131-106, so the direction was sound and the margin badly undersold. Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction
Atlanta was an 80% pick with a most common score of 118-119, essentially a coin-flip projection dressed up as a strong lean. The Hawks delivered 132-125 in Orlando, a higher-scoring game than forecast but the correct winner. Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks prediction
Washington was the least certain of the four correct calls: 60% of models, average confidence 57%, most common score 118-112. The Wizards beat Milwaukee 128-116, matching the projected winner and improving on the projected margin. Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction
Where it got it wrong
Brooklyn is the miss that will sting. Nine of ten models — 90% — picked the Nets, with a most common score of 118-101 and average confidence of 59%. Charlotte won 110-103. The panel not only had the winner wrong, it had the game shape wrong: the models projected a comfortable, high-scoring Nets night and got a low-scoring Hornets win.
San Antonio was the softer of the two failures on paper and the more damaging in practice. Seven of ten models backed the Spurs at 70%, average confidence 57%, most common score 114-109. Oklahoma City won 116-104. The Thunder beat both the projected winner and the projected scoreline, and the panel's confidence sat in the middle band where misses are most costly to the nightly record.
Models of the day
Two models cleared the consensus. Claude Sonnet 5 and Kimi K3 each finished 5 of 6, one better than the panel's 4 of 6, and both were the only members of the ten-model field to do so.
Four models matched the group exactly at 4 of 6: DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max, Grok 4.6 and Gemini 3.8 Flash. A further three landed a game below at 3 of 6 — GPT-5.6 Luna, Mistral Medium 3.5 and GLM 5.3.
The bottom of the table belonged to MiMo V2.6 Pro at 2 of 6, four games off the pace and the only model to finish below the 3 of 6 cluster. On a night when two 90% favourites fell, the spread between the best and worst model was three games.
Full results
- NBA: San Antonio Spurs 104–116 Oklahoma City Thunder — consensus San Antonio Spurs win (70%) WRONG
- NBA: Orlando Magic 125–132 Atlanta Hawks — consensus Atlanta Hawks win (80%) RIGHT
- NBA: Washington Wizards 128–116 Milwaukee Bucks — consensus Washington Wizards win (60%) RIGHT
- NBA: Miami Heat 106–131 Minnesota Timberwolves — consensus Minnesota Timberwolves win (90%) RIGHT
- NBA: Brooklyn Nets 103–110 Charlotte Hornets — consensus Brooklyn Nets win (90%) WRONG
- NBA: Toronto Raptors 135–92 Chicago Bulls — consensus Toronto Raptors win (100%) RIGHT
The panel returns with a fresh set of picks for the next slate. Today's lines, consensus percentages and projected scorelines are published on the TuringStats NBA predictions page.
Next up: today's nba predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
