Results
Hockey results Wednesday 21 October 2026: AI predictions review
Hockey results Wednesday 21 October 2026: the 10-model AI consensus went 5 of 8 in the NHL, missing on the Blues, Sabres and Senators. Full review.
Eight NHL games went to the models on Wednesday 21 October 2026, and the consensus came away with a winning record: 5 of 8 calls correct. Ten frontier AI models were graded against the final scores, and the panel found the right winner in five of the eight matchups.
The headline record flatters the process only slightly. Three of the five correct calls came with unanimous or near-unanimous backing, and the misses were not marginal coin-flips: two of them were 100% consensus picks that went the other way. The biggest surprise of the night was in Ottawa, where a Florida Panthers side backed by 90% of the models was beaten 5-1 by the Senators.
Full-time ice after Wednesday's eight-game NHL slate.
Where the AI got it right
The night opened with a clean hit. All 10 models backed Dallas and the Stars delivered a 3-2 win over Boston, though the most common predicted score of 4-2 shows the panel expected more goals and a wider margin than the game produced. Average confidence sat at 58%.
Edmonton was the panel's most divided correct call. Only 50% of the 10 models picked the Oilers, yet the most common scoreline of 4-3 landed exactly, with the Oilers edging Minnesota by that margin. Average confidence of 57% understated how split the room was.
Seattle produced a precise hit: 100% of models backed the Kraken and the most common score of 4-3 was the final result against Detroit. The 56% average confidence was the lowest among the day's unanimous picks, but the outcome needed no interpretation.
Carolina was the panel's most confident correct call at 63%, and the Hurricanes justified it with a 6-3 win in Vancouver. The models had the winner right and the direction of the scoring right, but the most common prediction of 4-5 was well short of a nine-goal game. See the Vancouver Canucks vs Carolina Hurricanes prediction for the pre-match detail.
Tampa Bay rounded out the correct calls. Seven of 10 models backed the Lightning, who won 6-2 in Vegas, again overshooting the most common predicted score of 3-4. Full pre-match reasoning is in the Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.
Where it got it wrong
St. Louis was the first miss. Every one of the 10 models picked Winnipeg, with a most common score of 2-3 and average confidence of 57%, and the Blues won 2-1 instead. A unanimous panel, a one-goal game, and the wrong side of it.
Buffalo was the second and the more costly. All 10 models backed the Sabres at 58% average confidence, with 4-3 the most common scoreline. Philadelphia won 3-1, meaning the consensus was wrong on the winner and on the margin, having forecast a high-scoring home win.
Ottawa was the night's largest error. Nine of 10 models favoured Florida at 57% average confidence and a most common score of 4-5. The Senators won 5-1, a four-goal swing against a near-unanimous panel. Read the Ottawa Senators vs Florida Panthers prediction for how the models framed it beforehand.
Models of the day
Three models topped the table with 5 of 8 correct: GPT-5.6 Luna, DeepSeek V4 Pro and Grok 4.6. Each found one more winner than the rest of the field.
The remaining seven models all finished on 4 of 8: Claude Sonnet 5, Mistral Medium 3.5, Qwen 3.8 Max, MiMo V2.6 Pro, Gemini 3.8 Flash, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3. There is no single worst performer to single out, since the group was tightly bunched one call behind the leaders. The spread across the entire panel was a single match.
Full results
- NHL: Dallas Stars 3-2 Boston Bruins — consensus Dallas Stars win (100%) RIGHT
- NHL: St. Louis Blues 2-1 Winnipeg Jets — consensus Winnipeg Jets win (100%) WRONG
- NHL: Edmonton Oilers 4-3 Minnesota Wild — consensus Edmonton Oilers win (50%) RIGHT
- NHL: Seattle Kraken 4-3 Detroit Red Wings — consensus Seattle Kraken win (100%) RIGHT
- NHL: Vancouver Canucks 3-6 Carolina Hurricanes — consensus Carolina Hurricanes win (100%) RIGHT
- NHL: Vegas Golden Knights 2-6 Tampa Bay Lightning — consensus Tampa Bay Lightning win (70%) RIGHT
- NHL: Buffalo Sabres 1-3 Philadelphia Flyers — consensus Buffalo Sabres win (100%) WRONG
- NHL: Ottawa Senators 5-1 Florida Panthers — consensus Florida Panthers win (90%) WRONG
The pattern worth watching is the unanimous calls: three of the day's four 100% picks landed, but the two misses at that level of agreement came with the panel's confidence at 57% and 58%, not at the top of its range. The full slate for the next round, with every model's pick and confidence, is on the today's hockey predictions page.
Next up: today's hockey predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
