Results
Hockey results Wednesday 30 September 2026: AI predictions review
Hockey results Wednesday 30 September 2026: the 10-model AI consensus went 7 of 15, as Sochi, Philadelphia and Edmonton upsets wrecked confident calls.
Wednesday 30 September 2026 produced 15 hockey fixtures across the KHL, Liiga, National League and NHL, and the 10-model consensus at TuringStats finished the day 7 of 15. It was a night of heavy favourites, most of them winning — and a handful of them collapsing in ways the models had barely priced in at all.
The biggest surprise came in the NHL, where Philadelphia Flyers were backed by 90% of models at an average confidence of 57% and lost 0-7 to Pittsburgh Penguins. Edmonton Oilers, a unanimous pick at 100%, also fell 5-6 at home to Vancouver Canucks, while Shanghai's 4-1 win over Magnitogorsk overturned a unanimous Magnitogorsk call.
A night of 15 fixtures across the KHL, Liiga, National League and NHL left the consensus at 7 of 15.
Where the AI got it right
The KHL opened with three clean hits. Yekaterinburg vs Lada prediction was unanimous at 100% with an average confidence of 60%; Yekaterinburg won 3-1. The most common scoreline forecast was 4-3, so the margin was tighter than expected but the winner was not.
Bars Kazan vs Barys Astana prediction drew the same 100% consensus at a higher 68% average confidence, and Bars Kazan delivered a 4-1 win. The models' most common score was 4-2, one goal from an exact hit.
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs Novosibirsk prediction was the day's most confident KHL call at 70% average confidence and 100% agreement. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl won 3-1, matching the most common predicted score exactly.
Liiga gave the consensus two more wins. Tappara vs KooKoo prediction was unanimous at 62% average confidence and Tappara won 3-0, keeping a clean sheet rather than the 3-2 most models had sketched. Kiekko-Espoo vs TPS Turku prediction was also unanimous, at 58% average confidence, and Kiekko-Espoo won 4-2 against a most common forecast of 3-2.
In the NHL, two unanimous picks landed. Boston Bruins vs New York Rangers prediction was backed by all 10 models at 56% average confidence, and Boston Bruins won 3-0. Vegas Golden Knights vs Chicago Blackhawks prediction was likewise unanimous at 67% average confidence, and Vegas Golden Knights won 5-2.
Where it got it wrong
The misses were concentrated in the KHL and NHL, and several were unanimous. Shanghai vs Magnitogorsk prediction saw 100% of models pick Magnitogorsk at 70% average confidence, with 2-4 the most common score. Shanghai won 4-1 instead.
Sochi vs Salavat Ufa prediction was a 90% Salavat Ufa call at 61% average confidence, most commonly 2-3. Sochi won 6-3 in a game that ran well past the projected goal totals. Spartak Moscow vs Tractor Chelyabinsk prediction was unanimous for Spartak Moscow at 63% average confidence, with 4-2 the most common score; Tractor Chelyabinsk won 4-2 the other way.
In Liiga, Karpat vs SaiPa prediction had 80% of models on SaiPa at 59% average confidence, most commonly 4-5. Karpat won 4-1. The National League added another miss: Lausanne vs Servette prediction backed Servette with 70% of models at 58% average confidence, most commonly 4-5, but Lausanne edged it 6-5.
The NHL produced the day's most damaging errors. Edmonton Oilers vs Vancouver Canucks prediction was unanimous for Edmonton Oilers at 66% average confidence, with 4-2 the most common score. Vancouver Canucks won 6-5. Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction drew 90% support for Philadelphia Flyers at 57% average confidence, most commonly 3-2; Pittsburgh Penguins won 0-7. And Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders prediction was the day's least certain call, a 60% New York Islanders lean at 57% average confidence with 4-5 the most common score, and Toronto Maple Leafs won 2-1.
Models of the day
Claude Sonnet 5 was the clear model of the day with 11 of 15 correct, four above the consensus mark. Gemini 3.8 Flash followed on 10 of 15, with Grok 4.6 on 9 of 15 and Mistral Medium 3.5 and Qwen 3.8 Max both on 8 of 15.
The back of the field was crowded. GPT-5.6 Luna, DeepSeek V4 Pro, MiMo V2.5 Pro, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3 all finished on 7 of 15, matching the consensus record exactly. No model finished below that mark, and no model finished the day unbeaten on its strongest calls.
Full results
- KHL: Yekaterinburg 3-1 Lada — consensus Yekaterinburg win (100%) RIGHT
- KHL: Bars Kazan 4-1 Barys Astana — consensus Bars Kazan win (100%) RIGHT
- KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 3-1 Novosibirsk — consensus Lokomotiv Yaroslavl win (100%) RIGHT
- KHL: Shanghai 4-1 Magnitogorsk — consensus Magnitogorsk win (100%) WRONG
- KHL: Sochi 6-3 Salavat Ufa — consensus Salavat Ufa win (90%) WRONG
- KHL: Spartak Moscow 2-4 Tractor Chelyabinsk — consensus Spartak Moscow win (100%) WRONG
- Liiga: Tappara 3-0 KooKoo — consensus Tappara win (100%) RIGHT
- Liiga: Kiekko-Espoo 4-2 TPS Turku — consensus Kiekko-Espoo win (100%) RIGHT
- Liiga: Karpat 4-1 SaiPa — consensus SaiPa win (80%) WRONG
- National League: Lausanne 6-5 Servette — consensus Servette win (70%) WRONG
- NHL: Boston Bruins 3-0 New York Rangers — consensus Boston Bruins win (100%) RIGHT
- NHL: Edmonton Oilers 5-6 Vancouver Canucks — consensus Edmonton Oilers win (100%) WRONG
- NHL: Vegas Golden Knights 5-2 Chicago Blackhawks — consensus Vegas Golden Knights win (100%) RIGHT
- NHL: Philadelphia Flyers 0-7 Pittsburgh Penguins — consensus Philadelphia Flyers win (90%) WRONG
- NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1 New York Islanders — consensus New York Islanders win (60%) WRONG
The full 10-model breakdown for every fixture on the slate, including today's games, is available on the today's hockey predictions page.
Next up: today's hockey predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
