BOR 2-1 WER · 52% RBL 2-1 EIN · 51% 189 2-1 HAM · 48% SCF 2-0 FCS · 54% FCA 1-3 BAY · 56% FSV 1-2 BAY · 47% UNI 2-0 SVE · 51% 1.F 2-2 BOR · 43% SCP 1-2 VFB · 45% LIV 1-1 MAN · 44% ARS 3-0 LEE · 60% CHE 2-1 BOU · 47% MAN 2-1 TOT · 45% AST 2-1 BRE · 45% BOR 2-1 WER · 52% RBL 2-1 EIN · 51% 189 2-1 HAM · 48% SCF 2-0 FCS · 54% FCA 1-3 BAY · 56% FSV 1-2 BAY · 47% UNI 2-0 SVE · 51% 1.F 2-2 BOR · 43% SCP 1-2 VFB · 45% LIV 1-1 MAN · 44% ARS 3-0 LEE · 60% CHE 2-1 BOU · 47% MAN 2-1 TOT · 45% AST 2-1 BRE · 45%
NHL Sep 30, 2026 · 23:30 Finished

Toronto Maple Leafs
vs
New York Islanders.

Quick answer

Who will win Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders?

Final score: Toronto Maple Leafs 2–1 New York Islanders. Before kickoff, 6 of 10 AI models pick New York Islanders to win (60%); the consensus was wrong. The AI predicted score was 4–5.

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before kickoff. Not betting advice.

10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward New York Islanders (6 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 4–5 at 57% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

10 AI models · council in session Live match data · Pro

Still not sure? Ask 10 AIs at once:
“Will Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Islanders in their upcoming match?”

Every model votes yes or no and defends it in a sentence or two. Attach this match's last-5 form, head-to-head and the picks above so they argue from real data — then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

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— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Toronto Maple Leafs win 40%

4 / 10 models

New York Islanders win 60%

6 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-5.6 Luna
New York Islanders win
4–5
57%
The Islanders won the three most recent listed meetings, including a 5-3 result in Toronto. The Leafs’ home-ice advantage should keep this close, but New York’s recent matchup edge supports a narrow, high-scoring win.
02
Claude Sonnet 5
Toronto Maple Leafs win
4–3
55%
Recent H2H split closely with high-scoring games; home ice and season opener energy give Toronto a slight edge in a tight, offense-leaning matchup.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Toronto Maple Leafs win
4–2
58%
Toronto's offensive depth on home ice should break down the Islanders' structured defence, avenging recent regular season losses in a competitive matchup.
04
Grok 4.6
Toronto Maple Leafs win
4–3
55%
Islanders took three straight H2H, but Toronto’s home ice and early-season pace favor a one-goal Leafs edge in a high-event game.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
New York Islanders win
3–4
58%
Islanders have won three of the last five meetings, including the most recent, and have consistently contained Toronto's attack in this matchup.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Toronto Maple Leafs win
3–2
52%
Islanders dominated recent H2H but this is a new season opener; home ice and roster reset give Toronto a slight edge in a close contest.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
New York Islanders win
4–5
60%
Islanders won 3 of last 4 H2H, including recent 5-3 and 3-1. Leafs inconsistent at home.
08
Kimi K3
New York Islanders win
2–3
58%
Islanders won the last three meetings in 2026, including twice in Toronto; Leafs' defensive leaks against New York persist despite home ice.
09
GLM 5.3
New York Islanders win
4–5
56%
Islanders won three straight H2H meetings in 2026, outscoring Toronto 12-7; early-season roster changes limit certainty, so a modest one-goal road edge fits.
10
MiMo V2.5 Pro
New York Islanders win
2–3
62%
Islanders have won the last three H2H matchups, showing a consistent edge over Toronto, and the recent scoring pattern suggests they can outscore the Leafs again.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

3 of 10 models settled on 4–5. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before kickoff.

  • 4–5
    3 models
  • 4–3
    2 models
  • 2–3
    2 models
  • 3–4
    1 model
  • 3–2
    1 model
  • 4–2
    1 model

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders in NHL? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (4 - 5; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before kickoff.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is New York Islanders win, with vote shares roughly 40% / 60% home and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors New York Islanders

60% of models lean away — the clearest cluster on this fixture before kickoff.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 57% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
xG tilt 3.40 vs 3.50

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Expected-goals tilt and home-field rhythm (see xG on this page) usually explain whether the game stays open or compresses late.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Explore more

Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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— Journal

Articles linked to these clubs or AI forecasting.

Ask multiple AIs about this match.

10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.