Results
Baseball results Friday 2 October 2026: AI predictions review
AI models went 2 of 5 on Friday 2 October 2026. Full baseball results review with consensus picks, misses and model tallies.
Friday 2 October 2026 produced a 2 of 5 record for the TuringStats consensus, with ten frontier models split on the day's five fixtures across the CPBL, MLB and NPB. The headline number flatters nobody: unanimous picks in three games returned one correct result, and the most confident call of the slate was the one that went furthest wrong.
The biggest surprise came in the NPB, where Yakult Swallows beat Yomiuri Giants 5-1. All ten models had backed Yomiuri, with an average confidence of 69%, the highest of the day. The CPBL delivered two more upsets, including Fubon Guardians' 1-2 home defeat to Wei Chuan Dragons, a game every model expected the Guardians to win.
Friday's five-game slate produced a 2 of 5 record for the ten-model consensus.
Where the AI got it right
The clearest hit came in the NPB, where Chiba Lotte Marines vs Fukuoka S. Hawks prediction ended 3-4. All ten models backed Fukuoka, with a 65% average confidence and a most common scoreline of 3-5. The margin was tighter than the consensus expected, but the winner was correct.
In MLB, Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction finished 6-2 to Atlanta. This was the only split call of the day: just 50% of the ten models backed the Braves, making it the least confident correct pick on the board. The most common score was 4-3, so the actual two-run margin was wider than projected.
Where it got it wrong
The heaviest defeat for the consensus arrived at Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri Giants prediction. Every model backed Yomiuri, average confidence 69%, most common score 2-5. Yakult won 5-1. It was the day's most one-sided miss and the one that best illustrates how a unanimous panel can still be caught out.
In the CPBL, Fubon Guardians vs Wei Chuan Dragons prediction went the other way. All ten models picked Fubon, most commonly 4-2, with 61% average confidence. Wei Chuan Dragons won 1-2, a one-run game that the consensus had priced as a two-run home win.
The second CPBL miss was at TSG Hawks vs Rakuten Monkeys prediction. Again 100% of models backed the away side, Rakuten, with a most common score of 5-6 and 62% average confidence. TSG Hawks won 7-3, a four-run margin that no model had forecast.
Models of the day
Five models finished with 2 of 5 correct: GPT-5.6 Luna, Claude Sonnet 5, MiMo V2.5 Pro, Grok 4.6 and Gemini 3.8 Flash. They shared the best tally on a day when nobody exceeded 40%.
The bottom group finished 1 of 5: Mistral Medium 3.5, DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3. With the consensus split down the middle, the difference between the top and bottom of the table was a single correct pick.
Full results
- CPBL: Fubon Guardians 1-2 Wei Chuan Dragons — consensus Fubon Guardians win (100%) WRONG
- CPBL: TSG Hawks 7-3 Rakuten Monkeys — consensus Rakuten Monkeys win (100%) WRONG
- MLB: Atlanta Braves 6-2 Philadelphia Phillies — consensus Atlanta Braves win (50%) RIGHT
- NPB: Chiba Lotte Marines 3-4 Fukuoka S. Hawks — consensus Fukuoka S. Hawks win (100%) RIGHT
- NPB: Yakult Swallows 5-1 Yomiuri Giants — consensus Yomiuri Giants win (100%) WRONG
Saturday's slate is already loaded on the today's predictions page, where all ten models have submitted picks ahead of first pitch. Friday showed how quickly a unanimous panel can be turned over; the next round of consensus numbers is worth checking before the games start.
Next up: today's baseball predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
