Results
Football results Friday 25 September 2026: AI predictions review
AI models called 5 of 9 football results correctly on Friday 25 September 2026. Georgia's upset and Belgium's win over Italy were among the misses.
Friday 25 September 2026 produced a mixed night for the 10 frontier AI models tracked by TuringStats. Across nine matches in the Segunda División and UEFA Nations League, the consensus called 5 of 9 results correctly, a return that flatters the evening's most confident calls. The headline surprise came in Tbilisi, where Georgia, backed by all 10 models, lost 0-1 to Northern Ireland.
Elsewhere, France and Belgium delivered statement wins, but Belgium's 2-0 victory in Italy wrecked a 70% draw consensus. The models were unanimous on five fixtures, yet two of those unanimous picks fell flat. The picture is familiar: high agreement does not guarantee accuracy.
Where the AI got it right
Girona vs Albacete prediction was the night's most one-sided call. All 10 models backed a Girona win, with 1-0 the most common scoreline and average confidence at 58%. Girona delivered a 2-0 victory, adding a second goal but keeping the clean sheet the consensus expected.
Armenia vs Latvia prediction saw 90% of models favour Armenia, most commonly 1-0, at 53% average confidence. Armenia won 2-0, a routine home success that matched the direction of the consensus even if the scoreline was more comfortable.
Türkiye vs France prediction was unanimous: 100% of models picked France, most commonly 1-2, with 59% average confidence. France's 1-0 win in Türkiye was narrower than expected but still the correct result, and it stood as one of the evening's more assured calls.
Sweden vs Romania prediction drew 90% support for Sweden, with 1-0 the most common scoreline at 56% average confidence. Sweden won 2-1, a tighter affair than the models anticipated but a correct outcome nonetheless.
Montenegro vs Cyprus prediction was another unanimous pick: all 10 models backed Montenegro, most commonly 1-0, at 55% average confidence. Montenegro's 2-1 win added a goal for each side but kept the three points at home.
Where it got it wrong
Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland was the biggest miss of the night. Every one of the 10 models predicted a Georgia win, with 1-0 the most common scoreline and 56% average confidence. Northern Ireland's narrow victory in Tbilisi was the single result that no model saw coming.
Italy 0-2 Belgium was almost as damaging. A 70% majority leaned towards a draw, most commonly 1-1, at 54% average confidence. Belgium's two-goal win in Italy turned a cautious consensus into a clear miss.
Hungary 0-1 Ukraine followed a similar pattern. Again 70% of models opted for a draw, most commonly 1-1, at 51% average confidence. Ukraine's single goal settled a tight match that the models had expected to finish level.
Poland 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina was the fourth wrong call. A 90% majority backed a Poland win, most commonly 1-0, at 56% average confidence. The goalless draw left the models with nothing to show for their conviction.
Models of the day
No single model broke away from the pack. Nine of the 10 entries finished on 5 of 9 correct: GPT-5.6 Luna, Claude Sonnet 5, Mistral Medium 3.5, DeepSeek V4 Pro, MiMo V2.5 Pro, Grok 4.6, Gemini 3.8 Flash, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3 all recorded the same tally. The lone outlier was Qwen 3.8 Max, which finished on 4 of 9 correct. With such a flat distribution, the day offered little separation between the leading models and only a marginal edge to the nine tied at the top.
Full results
- Segunda División: Girona 2-0 Albacete — consensus Girona win (100%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Georgia 0-1 Northern Ireland — consensus Georgia win (100%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Armenia 2-0 Latvia — consensus Armenia win (90%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Türkiye 0-1 France — consensus France win (100%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Italy 0-2 Belgium — consensus draw (70%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Hungary 0-1 Ukraine — consensus draw (70%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Poland 0-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina — consensus Poland win (90%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Sweden 2-1 Romania — consensus Sweden win (90%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Montenegro 2-1 Cyprus — consensus Montenegro win (100%) RIGHT
The models return to action on today's card, with a fresh set of fixtures and new consensus picks published on the TuringStats today predictions page.
Next up: today's football predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
