Results
Baseball results Tuesday 22 September 2026: AI predictions review
AI models called 5 of 11 baseball results correctly on Tuesday 22 September 2026, with Grok 4.6 leading the way at 6 of 11.
Tuesday 22 September 2026 delivered a mixed bag for the AI models, with the consensus correctly predicting 5 of 11 baseball results. The day featured a full slate of MLB and NPB action, but the models struggled with several high-confidence picks, particularly in NPB where three unanimous selections went astray.
The biggest surprise came in NPB, where the Hiroshima Carp edged the Yomiuri Giants 2-1 despite all 10 models favouring the Giants. That result, combined with two other NPB misses, dragged the overall record down and highlighted the unpredictability of baseball outcomes even when the models agree.
Where the AI got it right
The models started strong in MLB with the San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins prediction, where 60% of models backed the Giants. San Francisco delivered a 5-2 win, though the most common predicted score of 4-3 was slightly off the mark.
In a doubleheader against the Tampa Bay Rays, the New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction for the first game was a perfect call. All 10 models picked the Yankees, and they won 2-0, even if the expected 5-3 scoreline didn't materialise.
NPB provided three correct calls, starting with the Fukuoka S. Hawks vs Seibu Lions prediction. The Hawks were unanimous picks and secured a narrow 6-5 victory, defying the predicted 4-2 margin.
The Nippon Ham Fighters vs Rakuten Gold. Eagles prediction also went the models' way. A 100% consensus on the Fighters was rewarded with a 6-5 win, though the 4-2 forecast was again inaccurate.
Finally, the Yakult Swallows vs Hanshin Tigers prediction saw all models back the Tigers, who won 9-7. The predicted 3-5 score was far from the high-scoring affair that unfolded.
Where it got it wrong
The misses were costly, especially in NPB where three unanimous picks failed. The Hiroshima Carp's 2-1 win over the Yomiuri Giants was the most glaring, as all 10 models had tipped the Giants with an average confidence of 63%. The Carp's pitching stifled the Giants, and the models' most common score of 4-5 was never close.
In the second MLB game between the Yankees and Rays, the New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction was unanimous for the Yankees, but Tampa Bay romped to a 6-1 win. The models had expected a 5-3 Yankees victory, but the Rays' bats woke up.
Similarly, the Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds prediction saw 100% of models pick the Braves, only for Cincinnati to shut them out 4-0. The consensus 5-3 scoreline was optimistic for an Atlanta offence that never got going.
The Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins prediction was another unanimous miss, with Miami winning 8-2. The models had forecast a 5-3 Cubs win, but the Marlins dominated from the start.
In the highest-scoring game of the day, the Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox prediction saw 70% of models back the Royals, but the White Sox won 14-11. The predicted 5-4 score was blown away by a combined 25 runs.
The Chiba Lotte Marines vs Orix Buffaloes prediction was yet another NPB miss, as Orix won 6-4 despite all models favouring the Marines. The expected 4-2 Chiba Lotte win did not materialise.
Models of the day
Grok 4.6 was the standout performer, correctly predicting 6 of 11 results. It was the only model to exceed the consensus, showing some edge in a tricky day.
At the other end, DeepSeek V4 Pro and Kimi K3 both managed only 4 of 11 correct, underperforming the consensus. The remaining seven models all finished on 5 of 11, matching the overall record.
Full results
- MLB: San Francisco Giants 5–2 Minnesota Twins — consensus San Francisco Giants win (60%) RIGHT
- MLB: New York Yankees 2–0 Tampa Bay Rays — consensus New York Yankees win (100%) RIGHT
- MLB: New York Yankees 1–6 Tampa Bay Rays — consensus New York Yankees win (100%) WRONG
- MLB: Atlanta Braves 0–4 Cincinnati Reds — consensus Atlanta Braves win (100%) WRONG
- MLB: Chicago Cubs 2–8 Miami Marlins — consensus Chicago Cubs win (100%) WRONG
- MLB: Kansas City Royals 11–14 Chicago White Sox — consensus Kansas City Royals win (70%) WRONG
- NPB: Hiroshima Carp 2–1 Yomiuri Giants — consensus Yomiuri Giants win (100%) WRONG
- NPB: Chiba Lotte Marines 4–6 Orix Buffaloes — consensus Chiba Lotte Marines win (100%) WRONG
- NPB: Fukuoka S. Hawks 6–5 Seibu Lions — consensus Fukuoka S. Hawks win (100%) RIGHT
- NPB: Nippon Ham Fighters 6–5 Rakuten Gold. Eagles — consensus Nippon Ham Fighters win (100%) RIGHT
- NPB: Yakult Swallows 7–9 Hanshin Tigers — consensus Hanshin Tigers win (100%) RIGHT
For today's predictions and to see how the models fare on the next slate, visit the TuringStats baseball predictions page.
Next up: today's baseball predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
