Results
NFL results Sunday 4 October 2026: AI predictions review
NFL results Sunday 4 October 2026: AI models called 7 of 13 games correctly. Full review of hits, misses and model tallies.
Sunday's NFL slate produced 13 games and a middling day for the forecasting models. The consensus across 10 frontier AI systems finished 7 of 13 correct, a 53.8 per cent strike rate that leaves room for improvement.
The biggest surprise came in Washington, where the Commanders were backed by 90 per cent of models but fell 13-30 to the Indianapolis Colts. The result was the most confidently wrong call of the day, with the consensus average confidence sitting at 56 per cent.
Full-time scenes from Sunday's NFL action.
Where the AI got it right
The Chicago Bears vs New York Jets prediction was one of the day's cleanest calls. All 10 models backed Chicago, and the Bears delivered a 23-12 win over the Jets. The most common scoreline forecast was 24-17, with average confidence at 57 per cent.
The New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals prediction was a split decision, with only 60 per cent of models favouring the Giants. New York justified that lean with a 36-24 victory. The consensus score was 24-21 and average confidence 56 per cent.
Baltimore's Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans prediction was unanimous and accurate. All 10 models picked the Ravens, who won 24-18. The most common score was 27-17, with average confidence at 63 per cent.
In Las Vegas, the Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction was another unanimous call. Every model backed Kansas City, and the Chiefs edged a 30-27 contest. The consensus scoreline was 24-25, with average confidence at 62 per cent.
The San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos prediction was also unanimous and correct. All 10 models favoured the 49ers, who won 24-14. The most common score was 24-17, with average confidence at 59 per cent.
Where it got it wrong
Washington's 13-30 loss to Indianapolis was the standout miss. The Commanders were backed by 90 per cent of models, with a most common score of 24-20 and average confidence of 56 per cent. The Colts' comfortable win was not anticipated.
Buffalo's 26-29 defeat to New England was another unanimous failure. All 10 models picked the Bills, with a most common score of 27-20 and average confidence of 60 per cent. The Patriots' narrow win went against the entire field.
Cincinnati's 17-22 loss to Jacksonville was similarly unexpected. Every model backed the Bengals, with a most common score of 28-24 and average confidence of 59 per cent. The Jaguars' five-point win was a clear miss.
Philadelphia's 20-24 loss to the Los Angeles Rams was a third unanimous miss. All 10 models favoured the Eagles, with a most common score of 27-23 and average confidence of 61 per cent. The Rams' four-point win confounded the consensus.
Tampa Bay's 14-17 defeat to Green Bay was a further setback. The Buccaneers were backed by 80 per cent of models, with a most common score of 24-20 and average confidence of 57 per cent. The Packers' three-point win was not widely foreseen.
Houston's 30-34 loss to Dallas was another high-confidence miss. The Texans were backed by 90 per cent of models, with a most common score of 27-20 and average confidence of 59 per cent. The Cowboys' four-point win was a surprise.
Models of the day
Mistral Medium 3.5 was the best-performing model, with 8 of 13 correct. GPT-5.6 Luna, Claude Sonnet 5, MiMo V2.5 Pro, Grok 4.6, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3 all followed with 7 of 13. The weakest performers were DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max and Gemini 3.8 Flash, each with 6 of 13 correct.
Full results
- NFL: Washington Commanders 13-30 Indianapolis Colts — consensus Washington Commanders win (90%) WRONG
- NFL: Buffalo Bills 26-29 New England Patriots — consensus Buffalo Bills win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: Chicago Bears 23-12 New York Jets — consensus Chicago Bears win (100%) RIGHT
- NFL: Cincinnati Bengals 17-22 Jacksonville Jaguars — consensus Cincinnati Bengals win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: New York Giants 36-24 Arizona Cardinals — consensus New York Giants win (60%) RIGHT
- NFL: Philadelphia Eagles 20-24 Los Angeles Rams — consensus Philadelphia Eagles win (100%) WRONG
- NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14-17 Green Bay Packers — consensus Tampa Bay Buccaneers win (80%) WRONG
- NFL: Baltimore Ravens 24-18 Tennessee Titans — consensus Baltimore Ravens win (100%) RIGHT
- NFL: Houston Texans 30-34 Dallas Cowboys — consensus Houston Texans win (90%) WRONG
- NFL: Minnesota Vikings 15-10 Miami Dolphins — consensus Minnesota Vikings win (90%) RIGHT
- NFL: Las Vegas Raiders 27-30 Kansas City Chiefs — consensus Kansas City Chiefs win (100%) RIGHT
- NFL: San Francisco 49ers 24-14 Denver Broncos — consensus San Francisco 49ers win (100%) RIGHT
- NFL: Seattle Seahawks 30-23 Los Angeles Chargers — consensus Seattle Seahawks win (90%) RIGHT
Today's NFL predictions are available on the TuringStats predictions page.
Next up: today's nfl predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
