Results
Football results Tuesday 29 September 2026: AI predictions review
Football results Tuesday 29 September 2026: the AI consensus went 6 of 10, as Spain and England delivered but Scotland's rout broke a unanimous draw call.
Ten UEFA Nations League fixtures went through ten frontier models before kickoff on Tuesday 29 September 2026, and the consensus landed 6 of 10 correct across the night. It was a card that rewarded the obvious calls and punished the stubborn ones: Spain and England were never in doubt, Albania and Slovakia were read comfortably, but three unanimous predictions came home empty and one hundred-percent draw call was blown apart.
The biggest surprise arrived at Hampden, where every one of the ten models settled on a draw and Scotland instead lost 0-3 to Switzerland. Only one other match produced a result on that scale of disagreement, and it came in Luxembourg, where the models split down the middle and got it right anyway.
Full time on a night when three unanimous calls went the wrong way.
Where the AI got it right
Spain 4-1 Croatia was the headline success of the evening. All ten models backed the hosts, most commonly at 2-1 with an average confidence of 58%, and while the winning margin ran two goals beyond the popular scoreline, the direction was never in question. The result was the sort of high-scoring, one-sided Nations League night the consensus tends to read well.
Czechia 0-2 England followed a similar pattern. Nine of ten models picked England, the most common scoreline was 1-2, and the actual 0-2 away win matched the shape of the prediction with a clean sheet added. Average confidence sat at 58%, modest for a match with that much agreement behind it, and the models were vindicated on both the winner and the margin.
San Marino 0-3 Albania was the night's most confident correct call. Every model backed Albania at an average confidence of 71%, the most common score was 0-2, and the visitors added a third. The gap in quality between the sides made this the least contentious fixture on the card, and the consensus priced it accordingly.
Slovakia 2-1 Kazakhstan was unanimous and correct. All ten models called a Slovakia win, most commonly 2-0 at 61% average confidence, and the hosts delivered the win if not the clean sheet. It was the fourth time on the night that a hundred-percent consensus call came in, and it kept the overall record respectable.
Slovenia 2-0 FYR Macedonia completed the correct set. Ten of ten models backed Slovenia, the most common score was 1-0 at 56% average confidence, and the hosts doubled the margin. Like Slovakia, the call was right on the result and slightly short on the scoreline.
Where it got it wrong
Scotland 0-3 Switzerland was the night's worst miss and its most confident error. All ten models predicted a draw, most commonly 1-1, with an average confidence of 52%. Instead Switzerland won by three goals at Hampden, a result no model countenanced and one that turned the most unanimous call of the round into a total loss.
Finland 0-0 Belarus was the opposite failure: a hundred percent of models backed Finland, most commonly 1-0, at 57% average confidence, and the match finished goalless. Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia repeated the pattern almost exactly, with all ten models on a Bulgaria win at 55% average confidence and a 1-0 most common score that never arrived. Both matches show how a strong favourite with a thin scoring edge can be undone by a single blank afternoon.
Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands was the fourth miss. Seven of ten models picked Moldova, most commonly 1-0, at 54% average confidence, and the draw denied them. The consensus was less unanimous here than in the other three failures, and the average confidence was the lowest of the group.
Models of the day
Seven models finished on 6 of 10: GPT-5.6 Luna, Claude Sonnet 5, Mistral Medium 3.5, Qwen 3.8 Max, Gemini 3.8 Flash, Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3. No model separated itself from the pack, and no model beat the consensus record of 6 of 10.
Three models finished a match behind on 5 of 10: DeepSeek V4 Pro, MiMo V2.5 Pro and Grok 4.6. Their deficit was a single fixture, which on a card with three failed unanimous calls is a narrow margin rather than a clear signal.
Full results
- UEFA Nations League: Finland 0-0 Belarus — consensus Finland win (100%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Moldova 1-1 Faroe Islands — consensus Moldova win (70%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Spain 4-1 Croatia — consensus Spain win (100%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Czechia 0-2 England — consensus England win (90%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: San Marino 0-3 Albania — consensus Albania win (100%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Slovakia 2-1 Kazakhstan — consensus Slovakia win (100%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Bulgaria 0-0 Estonia — consensus Bulgaria win (100%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland — consensus Iceland win (50%) RIGHT
- UEFA Nations League: Scotland 0-3 Switzerland — consensus draw (100%) WRONG
- UEFA Nations League: Slovenia 2-0 FYR Macedonia — consensus Slovenia win (100%) RIGHT
The pattern across the card is worth carrying forward: five of the six correct calls came from unanimous or near-unanimous consensus, but four unanimous calls also failed, and the models' confidence never rose above 71% on any fixture. Today's predictions page is live at turingstats.com/football-predictions/today, with the full model-by-model breakdown published before kickoff.
Next up: today's football predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.
