Football results Sunday 4 October 2026: AI predictions review

Sunday 4 October 2026 produced 21 matches across the Copa del Rey, Liga Profesional Argentina, Segunda División and the UEFA Nations League, and the 10-model consensus landed on 11 of them. Ten correct from 21 is the sort of return that looks respectable until you notice how many of the misses arrived with the models almost unanimous.

The biggest surprise came in Athens, where Greece held Germany to a 0-0 draw. All 10 models had backed a Germany win, with 0-2 the most common scoreline called and an average confidence of 51 per cent. Kosovo's 1-1 draw with Austria, also a 100 per cent consensus pick for the away side, ran it close.

Full-time scenes on a day when four unanimous consensus picks failed to land.

Where the AI got it right

Huracan 1-0 Aldosivi was the cleanest call of the day in Argentina. Every one of the 10 models backed the home win, the most common score was 1-0, and the match finished exactly that way. Average confidence sat at 46 per cent, modest for a unanimous pick, but the result needed no defending. Huracan vs Aldosivi prediction

Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta de Vigo II came with a 100 per cent consensus for the home side and a most common score of 1-0. The five-goal scoreline was not what the models drew up, but the outcome was, and the 49 per cent average confidence was among the higher marks recorded on the day. Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II prediction

In the Nations League, Netherlands 2-1 Serbia and Portugal 2-1 Norway both went the way of the consensus at 100 per cent. Portugal carried the highest average confidence of any match on the card at 52 per cent, and both were called as 2-0 wins by the most common scoreline. Portugal vs Norway prediction

Malta 1-0 Andorra was another unanimous call, delivered at 48 per cent average confidence with 1-0 the most common score, while Wales 0-1 Denmark landed for the 90 per cent of models who backed the visitors. Malta vs Andorra prediction

Granada CF's 3-2 win at Real Sociedad II was correctly identified by 90 per cent of models, with 0-1 the most common scoreline and 45 per cent average confidence. Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF prediction

Where it got it wrong

The worst miss by consensus weight was Greece 0-0 Germany. All 10 models picked Germany, the most common score was 0-2, and the average confidence of 51 per cent was the highest recorded across the 21 fixtures. A goalless draw in Athens left that confidence looking badly placed. Greece vs Germany prediction

Kosovo 1-1 Austria was the same story at 49 per cent average confidence: 100 per cent of models backed Austria and the most common score was 0-1. Girona 0-0 Mallorca and Castellón 1-1 AD Ceuta FC were also unanimous home-win picks, both called 1-0, both ending level. Girona's consensus carried 43 per cent average confidence, Castellón's 45 per cent.

Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid went against the 70 per cent who backed the home side at 43 per cent average confidence. In the Copa del Rey, Atlético Melilla were picked by 90 per cent of models at 43 per cent confidence and lost 0-3 to Pinatar, the most emphatic wrong call of the day. Noja, backed by 90 per cent at 42 per cent, drew 1-1 with Ribadesella CF, and Tavernes, backed by 80 per cent at 39 per cent, drew 0-0 with Maracena.

Talleres Cordoba were the choice of 70 per cent of models at 45 per cent confidence and lost 0-1 to Belgrano Cordoba. Rep. Of Ireland 1-1 Israel was the only genuinely split fixture on the card: just 50 per cent of models backed the home win, the most common score was 1-1, and the match finished 1-1 — a correct scoreline that still counted as a wrong pick.

Models of the day

Gemini 3.8 Flash finished clear at the top with 14 of 21 correct, two clear of the field. GPT-5.6 Luna and Kimi K3 followed on 12 of 21, both beating the 11-of-21 consensus record.

Claude Sonnet 5, Mistral Medium 3.5, DeepSeek V4 Pro, Qwen 3.8 Max, MiMo V2.5 Pro and GLM 5.3 all matched the consensus exactly at 11 of 21. Grok 4.6 was the weakest performer of the day with 10 of 21, the only model to finish below the consensus line.

Full results

• Copa del Rey: Noja 1-1 Ribadesella CF — consensus Noja win (90%) WRONG
• Copa del Rey: CD San Jose 1-0 Auriense — consensus CD San Jose win (80%) RIGHT
• Copa del Rey: Alcazar 1-0 Talayuela — consensus Alcazar win (90%) RIGHT
• Copa del Rey: Atlético Melilla 0-3 Pinatar — consensus Atlético Melilla win (90%) WRONG
• Copa del Rey: Tavernes 0-0 Maracena — consensus Tavernes win (80%) WRONG
• Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 1-0 Aldosivi — consensus Huracan win (100%) RIGHT
• Liga Profesional Argentina: Talleres Cordoba 0-1 Belgrano Cordoba — consensus Talleres Cordoba win (70%) WRONG
• Liga Profesional Argentina: Argentinos JRS 2-1 Tigre — consensus Argentinos JRS win (90%) RIGHT
• Segunda División: Real Sociedad II 2-3 Granada CF — consensus Granada CF win (90%) RIGHT
• Segunda División: Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta de Vigo II — consensus Sporting Gijon win (100%) RIGHT
• Segunda División: Castellón 1-1 AD Ceuta FC — consensus Castellón win (100%) WRONG
• Segunda División: Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid — consensus Las Palmas win (70%) WRONG
• Segunda División: Girona 0-0 Mallorca — consensus Girona win (100%) WRONG
• UEFA Nations League: Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania — consensus Azerbaijan win (80%) RIGHT
• UEFA Nations League: Malta 1-0 Andorra — consensus Malta win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Nations League: Kosovo 1-1 Austria — consensus Austria win (100%) WRONG
• UEFA Nations League: Greece 0-0 Germany — consensus Germany win (100%) WRONG
• UEFA Nations League: Netherlands 2-1 Serbia — consensus Netherlands win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Nations League: Portugal 2-1 Norway — consensus Portugal win (100%) RIGHT
• UEFA Nations League: Wales 0-1 Denmark — consensus Denmark win (90%) RIGHT
• UEFA Nations League: Rep. Of Ireland 1-1 Israel — consensus Rep. Of Ireland win (50%) WRONG

The lesson from Sunday is that unanimity was not a guarantee: four of the seven unanimous picks failed to land. Today's fixtures are already through all 10 models on the football predictions for today page, with the consensus, most common scoreline and confidence levels for every match listed before kickoff.

Next up: today's football predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.