Copa del Rey Predictions This Week: Ten Ties, One Clear Pattern

The Copa del Rey returns with a ten-match slate spread across four days, from Tuesday 10 November to Friday 13 November 2026, and the TuringStats panel of ten AI models has delivered a verdict on every tie. The shape of the round is familiar: regional and lower-tier hosts, professional visitors, and a set of consensus calls that lean heavily on the divisional gap between the two sides.

That pattern produces the panel's strongest call of the week in Tavernes vs Valencia, where all ten models back the La Liga visitors at an average confidence of 65 percent. The most divided fixture is a different story entirely: Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés, where 90 percent of models settle on a home win but average confidence drops to 48 percent, the lowest of the window, and one model breaks ranks for a draw.

Most-picked score from 10 AI models for every Copa del Rey match this week.

Copa del Rey predictions, match by match

Anaitasuna vs Alaves prediction

Unanimous. All ten models give Alaves the win, with an average confidence of 60 percent and a most common predicted score of 0–2. Gemini 3.8 Flash is the boldest voice in the room, calling a 0–3 at 82 percent confidence and framing it as a routine, clean-sheet victory built on the top-flight side's quality advantage over lower-tier opposition. Meta Muse Spark 1.3 lands on the same scoreline, noting that Alaves' 10–2 record against amateur opposition is the kind of tier gap that tends to show in the result.

GPT-6 Luna is the cautious counterweight, opting for 0–2 at 68 percent. Its reasoning credits Anaitasuna's two wins and ten goals as evidence of genuine cup form, but concludes that Alaves' higher-tier squad should still control the tie away from home, making a disciplined clean sheet more likely than an open exchange. full AI breakdown

Pamplona vs Eibar prediction

Nine of ten models back Eibar, with a 0–2 most common score and average confidence of 58 percent. Gemini 3.8 Flash again goes furthest, predicting 0–3 at 82 percent and pointing to the multiple divisions separating the professional visitors from a regional host, a disparity it expects to translate into a comfortable clean sheet.

GPT-6 Luna and Meta Muse Spark 1.3 both settle on 0–2 at 68 percent. GPT-6 Luna acknowledges Pamplona's home advantage but argues that, with no form or head-to-head data available, a controlled away win and clean sheet is the most defensible estimate. Meta Muse Spark 1.3 adds that Eibar's professional quality should hold the tie at Beitikuntzea even with rotation. full AI breakdown

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés prediction

The week's most contested call. Nine models favour Amorebieta and one backs a draw, producing a 90–10 split, but average confidence is only 48 percent and the most common score is a narrow 1–0. Kimi K3, at 58 percent confidence, leans on home advantage at the Campo Municipal de Urritxe and on UD Logroñés' likely struggles in away cup fixtures to justify a low-scoring home victory.

GLM 5.3 prefers 2–0 at 55 percent, citing Amorebieta's higher tier against Segunda RFEF visitors and a controlled home win with a clean sheet. Mistral Medium 3.5 dissents with a 1–1 draw at 55 percent, reasoning that an early-round Copa tie between balanced sides, with no head-to-head edge and only modest home advantage, points to a share of the spoils. full AI breakdown

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén prediction

Eight of ten models side with Real Jaén, one backs Mijas Las Lagunas and one a draw, with a most common score of 0–1 and average confidence of 50 percent. GPT-6 Luna and Gemini 3.8 Flash both call 0–2 at 62 percent, the former citing Jaén's stronger club stature and squad depth, the latter their superior pedigree and quality over regional-tier opponents.

Mistral Medium 3.5 is more conservative, predicting 0–1 at 58 percent and noting that early Copa del Rey rounds are often low-scoring, with away upsets a live risk. The panel's spread here reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a disagreement about which side is stronger. full AI breakdown

Trival Valderas vs Leganes prediction

Another unanimous call: Leganes win on all ten ballots, at 61 percent average confidence and a 0–2 most common score. Gemini 3.8 Flash sets the tone at 78 percent, describing a huge gap in tier quality between lower-league Trival Valderas and a professional Leganés side that should control the tie comfortably.

GPT-6 Luna and Meta Muse Spark 1.3 both land on 0–2, at 72 and 71 percent respectively. GPT-6 Luna notes that Leganes' substantially higher club level should outweigh the hosts' home advantage, while Meta Muse Spark 1.3 frames it as a Round of 128 tier gap in which professional quality and a clean sheet are the likeliest outcome. full AI breakdown

Tavernes vs Valencia prediction

The panel's strongest call of the week. All ten models predict a Valencia win at an average confidence of 65 percent, with 0–2 the most common score. Gemini 3.8 Flash is at its most emphatic, calling 0–3 at 85 percent and describing a massive tier disparity in the Round of 128 between a La Liga side and a regional amateur outfit.

GPT-6 Luna opts for 0–2 at 78 percent, adding a detail the others omit: Tavernes have scored only once across two cup matches and failed to find the net in one of them. Kimi K3 goes 0–3 at 72 percent, expecting the visitors to dominate possession and convert multiple chances against a side that has struggled in front of goal. full AI breakdown

Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete prediction

Unanimous for Albacete, at 59 percent average confidence and a 0–2 most common score. Gemini 3.8 Flash calls 0–2 at 78 percent, citing the significant divisional gap between lower-tier Calvo Sotelo and a Segunda side and expecting a professional, controlled away performance.

GPT-6 Luna and Meta Muse Spark 1.3 both settle on 0–2, at 68 and 67 percent. GPT-6 Luna argues that a controlled away win is safer than predicting a larger margin with no form or head-to-head data to lean on, while Meta Muse Spark 1.3 notes that even a rotated Albacete should have the professional depth to control the tie at Puertollano. full AI breakdown

Navalcarnero vs Real Betis prediction

All ten models back Real Betis, with 0–2 the most common score and average confidence of 64 percent. Gemini 3.8 Flash predicts 0–3 at 82 percent, arguing that even with squad rotation Betis should comfortably control possession and cruise to a clean-sheet win over lower-tier Navalcarnero.

Meta Muse Spark 1.3 and GLM 5.3 also call 0–3, at 72 and 70 percent. Meta Muse Spark 1.3 labels it a Round of 128 mismatch in which Betis' depth far exceeds the hosts' at Santo Domingo, while GLM 5.3 points to the gulf in squad quality between a La Liga side and fourth-tier opposition. full AI breakdown

Tarancón vs Levante prediction

Unanimous for Levante at 63 percent average confidence, with 0–2 the most common score. Gemini 3.8 Flash predicts 0–3 at 82 percent, describing a significant division mismatch between a professional outfit and a non-professional Tercera RFEF side, and backing Levante to outclass the hosts despite heavy squad rotation.

Meta Muse Spark 1.3 agrees on 0–3 at 77 percent, framing it as a Round of 128 mismatch across multiple divisions despite the away venue. GPT-6 Luna is more measured at 0–2 and 72 percent, expecting Levante's quality gap to control possession and chances while the Copa setting and Tarancón's home ground limit the margin rather than overturn the likely result. full AI breakdown

Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo prediction

The Friday night tie closes the window with a unanimous Celta Vigo call at 65 percent average confidence and a most common score of 0–3. Gemini 3.8 Flash predicts 0–3 at 82 percent, citing a massive divisional mismatch and expecting Celta's quality advantage to ensure a comfortable, one-sided victory even with rotation.

GPT-6 Luna also calls 0–3 at 78 percent, pointing to Celta's 7–0 win at Salamanca UDS in the latest recorded meeting as evidence of the class gap, though it expects the home venue to limit the margin. Meta Muse Spark 1.3 goes one better with 0–4 at 78 percent, arguing the tier gap persists regardless of who starts. full AI breakdown

Where the AI panel disagrees

Only three ties in the window see any model break from the majority, and the split is never wide in vote count — but it is wide in conviction.

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés is the outlier of the round. Nine models back the hosts, yet average confidence sits at just 48 percent, the lowest in the window, and the most common score is a single-goal margin. Mistral Medium 3.5's 1–1 draw at 55 percent captures the underlying problem: two sides with no head-to-head data, modest home advantage and early-round caution. The panel agrees on the favourite but not on how safe that favourite is.

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén splits 8–1–1 at 50 percent average confidence, with the most common score 0–1 rather than the 0–2 favoured by the more assertive models. GPT-6 Luna and Gemini 3.8 Flash both call 0–2 at 62 percent, but Mistral Medium 3.5's 0–1 at 58 percent reflects the panel's broader hesitation about margin in a tie where pedigree, not form, is doing the work.

Pamplona vs Eibar is the mildest disagreement: one model sides with the hosts against nine for Eibar, at 58 percent average confidence. GPT-6 Luna's reasoning is explicit about why — with no form or head-to-head data, the panel is estimating from divisional status and home advantage alone, which narrows the gap between a comfortable away win and a contested one.

Quick picks

• Anaitasuna vs Alaves: Alaves win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
• Pamplona vs Eibar: Eibar win (90% of models), predicted 0–2
• Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés: Amorebieta win (90% of models), predicted 1–0
• Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén: Real Jaén win (80% of models), predicted 0–1
• Trival Valderas vs Leganes: Leganes win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
• Tavernes vs Valencia: Valencia win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
• Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete: Albacete win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
• Navalcarnero vs Real Betis: Real Betis win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
• Tarancón vs Levante: Levante win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
• Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo: Celta Vigo win (100% of models), predicted 0–3

Every model's pick, confidence and reasoning for each of these matches is on its match page, and the Copa del Rey predictions hub updates as new fixtures come in. Forecasts are informational only.