Copa del Rey
Copa del Rey Predictions This Week: AI Panel Backs Favourites
Copa del Rey predictions this week: AI panel consensus for all 10 ties on 27–28 October 2026, with confidence levels and most common scorelines.
The Copa del Rey returns with a compact midweek slate: ten ties spread across 27 and 28 October 2026, each assessed by the same panel of ten AI models. The round of 128 is traditionally where the competition’s hierarchy is at its most visible, and this week’s consensus reflects that. The panel’s strongest call is Manacor vs Villarreal, where all ten models agree on an away win at an average confidence of 70%. The most divided fixture is Calamocha vs Europa FC, where the split is 50–40 in favour of the home side and average confidence drops to 47%.
Across the ten matches, the panel is unanimous on seven outcomes. The disagreements are concentrated in the lower-profile ties, where divisional gaps are narrower and home advantage carries more weight in the models’ reasoning. Below, every match is broken down in dossier order, followed by the fixtures where the panel splits and a quick-reference list of picks.
Most-picked score from 10 AI models for every Copa del Rey match this week.
Copa del Rey predictions, match by match
Cuarte vs Girona prediction
The panel is unanimous: all ten models back Girona, with an average confidence of 65%. The most common predicted score is 0–2. Gemini 3.8 Flash, forecasting 0–3 at 85% confidence, cites a major divisional mismatch and Girona’s superior technical quality and depth. GPT-5.6 Luna notes that Cuarte’s home venue may limit the margin but is unlikely to overturn the gap, while Claude Sonnet 5 describes a massive class gap between a regional amateur club and a La Liga side.
Calamocha vs Europa FC prediction
The week’s most divided tie. The consensus is Calamocha 50%, draw 10%, Europa FC 40%, with average confidence of 47% and a most common score of 1–0. Gemini 3.8 Flash, backing Europa FC 0–2 at 62%, argues the higher-tier side’s quality gap should be decisive despite Calamocha’s home advantage. Mistral Medium 3.5 and Kimi K3 also lean away, citing narrow away wins as typical in early Copa rounds, though cup upsets keep their confidence moderate.
Pinatar vs Elche prediction
Elche are backed by 90% of the panel, with 10% on Pinatar and no draw votes. Average confidence is 58% and the most common score is 0–2. Gemini 3.8 Flash expects a 0–3 away win at 78%, pointing to Elche’s much higher professional tier. GPT-5.6 Luna acknowledges Pinatar’s two clean-sheet cup wins and 11–0 record but still favours Elche’s quality advantage in a disciplined 0–2. Claude Sonnet 5 frames it as a La Liga side against lower-tier amateur opposition.
Sestao River vs Espanyol prediction
Another unanimous call: 100% of models back Espanyol, at an average confidence of 61%, with 0–2 the most common predicted score. Gemini 3.8 Flash highlights the divisional disparity between top-flight Espanyol and third-tier Sestao River, expecting a comfortable shutout at 76% confidence. GPT-5.6 Luna and Kimi K3 both stress that Espanyol’s squad quality and depth should outweigh the home side’s advantage, even with likely rotation.
Castellonense vs Almeria prediction
All ten models predict an Almeria win, with average confidence of 63% and a most common score of 0–2. Gemini 3.8 Flash goes for 0–3 at 78%, citing a major division gap and Almeria’s superior individual quality and tactical organisation. GPT-5.6 Luna expects a controlled away win despite Castellonense’s home venue, while DeepSeek V4 Pro notes that Almeria play two divisions above their hosts and have far stronger squad depth.
Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes prediction
The panel is unanimous on a Mirandes win, at 58% average confidence, with 0–2 the most common score. Gemini 3.8 Flash points to Mirandes’ professional Segunda División status against Tercera Federación opposition, forecasting a routine away victory at 74% confidence. GPT-5.6 Luna notes the lower-league venue may limit the margin, and DeepSeek V4 Pro highlights the two-division gap despite the cup-tie atmosphere at Las Salinas.
Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda prediction
Rayo Majadahonda are backed by 80% of the panel, with 20% on Ciudad de Lucena and no draw votes. Average confidence is 51% and the most common score is 0–1. GPT-5.6 Luna, Mistral Medium 3.5 and Kimi K3 all forecast a narrow away win, citing Rayo Majadahonda’s likely higher-tier squad quality and the cautious, low-scoring nature of early Copa ties, while acknowledging Lucena’s home edge.
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa prediction
Cultural Leonesa take 100% of the vote, but average confidence is the lowest of any unanimous call this week at 49%. The most common predicted score is 0–1. Mistral Medium 3.5 expects a tight, low-scoring away win, Claude Sonnet 5 cites the clear quality edge of a higher division, and Kimi K3 suggests Segoviana’s home advantage will keep the match close, with a single goal likely to decide it.
Manacor vs Villarreal prediction
The panel’s strongest call: all ten models back Villarreal, with average confidence of 70% and a most common score of 0–3. Gemini 3.8 Flash forecasts 0–3 at 84%, describing a massive divisional gulf between fifth-tier Manacor and top-flight Villarreal. GPT-5.6 Luna expects a controlled away win rather than an unusually high-scoring rout, and Kimi K3 points to the gulf in squad depth and quality producing a comfortable clean sheet.
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis prediction
Real Betis are backed by all ten models, with average confidence of 63% and 0–2 the most common predicted score. Gemini 3.8 Flash expects a 0–3 win at 82%, citing the quality disparity between lower-tier Navalcarnero and La Liga opposition. GLM 5.3 also forecasts 0–3, while GPT-5.6 Luna notes that Betis may rotate but a controlled win and limited home scoring look more likely.
Where the AI panel disagrees
Calamocha vs Europa FC is the clearest split of the week: a 50–40 consensus in favour of the home side, with average confidence of just 47%. The models that lean towards Europa FC point to the higher divisional level of the away side and the frequency of narrow away wins in early Copa rounds. Those favouring Calamocha appear to weight home advantage more heavily in a tie where the quality gap is not seen as decisive. The most common predicted score, 1–0, reflects how finely balanced the panel considers this fixture.
Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda is the next weakest consensus at 80–20, with average confidence of 51%. The away side is favoured, but the models are cautious about the margin: the most common score is 0–1, and several reason that Lucena’s home advantage and the cup setting could produce an upset. The split here is less about the outcome and more about how much the lower-tier home side can close the gap.
Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa is unanimous on the winner but carries the lowest average confidence of any match this week at 49%. The models agree Cultural Leonesa’s higher division gives them the edge, but the most common score is 0–1, and the reasoning repeatedly cites Segoviana’s home advantage and the tight, low-scoring nature of the tie. It is a case of agreement on the result without conviction on the scoreline.
Quick picks
- Cuarte vs Girona: Girona win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
- Calamocha vs Europa FC: Calamocha win (50% of models), predicted 1–0
- Pinatar vs Elche: Elche win (90% of models), predicted 0–2
- Sestao River vs Espanyol: Espanyol win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
- Castellonense vs Almeria: Almeria win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
- Atlético Tordesillas vs Mirandes: Mirandes win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
- Ciudad de Lucena vs Rayo Majadahonda: Rayo Majadahonda win (80% of models), predicted 0–1
- Gimnástica Segoviana vs Cultural Leonesa: Cultural Leonesa win (100% of models), predicted 0–1
- Manacor vs Villarreal: Villarreal win (100% of models), predicted 0–3
- Navalcarnero vs Real Betis: Real Betis win (100% of models), predicted 0–2
Every model's pick, confidence and reasoning for each of these matches is on its match page, and the Copa del Rey predictions hub updates as new fixtures come in. Forecasts are informational only.
