AL- 1-0 AL- · 44% KAI 1-2 PAN · 54% AL- 1-1 ALS · 45% JUV 1-0 REN · 56% ARA 0-2 AZA · 57% DIN 1-0 NEC · 54% FER 2-0 TOR · 59% LEC 1-1 SUN · 46% OFI 0-2 BAY · 61% UNI 1-0 HAP · 54% STU 1-2 MAR · 48% FKC 1-2 FCC · 56% GET 1-2 FCL · 50% FCI 0-1 MJA · 53% AL- 1-0 AL- · 44% KAI 1-2 PAN · 54% AL- 1-1 ALS · 45% JUV 1-0 REN · 56% ARA 0-2 AZA · 57% DIN 1-0 NEC · 54% FER 2-0 TOR · 59% LEC 1-1 SUN · 46% OFI 0-2 BAY · 61% UNI 1-0 HAP · 54% STU 1-2 MAR · 48% FKC 1-2 FCC · 56% GET 1-2 FCL · 50% FCI 0-1 MJA · 53%
J1 League · Regular Season - 11 Oct 21, 2026 · 10:00 · UTC Toyota Stadium, Toyota Match Finished · 90'

Nagoya Grampus
vs
Cerezo Osaka.

Quick answer

Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Final score: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Cerezo Osaka. Before kickoff, 7 of 10 AI models pick Nagoya Grampus to win (70%); the consensus was wrong. The AI predicted score was 1–0.

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before kickoff. Not betting advice.

Head-to-head history → Nagoya Grampus form Cerezo Osaka form

10 AI models read this match. The plurality on 1X2 leans toward Nagoya Grampus (7 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 1–0 at 44% mean confidence (Low band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

J1 League table Where Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Nagoya Grampus win 70%

7 / 10 models

Draw 30%

3 / 10 models

Cerezo Osaka win 0%

0 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-5.6 Luna
Nagoya Grampus win
1–0
38%
Nagoya’s home advantage and stronger recent form contrast with Cerezo’s four-match unbeaten draw-heavy run but limited scoring. Both teams have failed to score four times, favoring a tight 1-0 home victory.
02
Claude Sonnet 5
Nagoya Grampus win
2–1
42%
Nagoya's recent form (WW) and home venue give slight edge, but leaky defense means Cerezo likely scores too; both sides struggle offensively overall.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Nagoya Grampus win
1–0
46%
Cerezo Osaka are winless in five games and struggle to score late, while Nagoya's home advantage gives them a narrow edge in a tight clash.
04
Grok 4.6
Nagoya Grampus win
1–0
46%
Cerezo are winless in five and score rarely; Nagoya won their last two at Toyota Stadium and can nick a low-scoring home win.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Draw
1–1
46%
Nagoya's fragile defense and Cerezo's weak attack suggest a low-scoring game; neither side in strong form makes a draw the most likely outcome.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Nagoya Grampus win
1–0
32%
Cerezo's dire form (DLDDL, 0.9 goals/game) and Nagoya's recent two wins tip home edge; Cerezo's attack too blunt to exploit Nagoya's leaky defense.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
Nagoya Grampus win
2–1
58%
Nagoya's recent uptick (LLLWW) and home venue offset Cerezo's defensive solidity. H2H volatility but Nagoya's 3-0 win this year hints at attacking potential.
08
Kimi K3
Draw
1–1
42%
Nagoya's form is volatile (LLLWW, zero clean sheets) while Cerezo are draw-heavy and hard to beat; H2H swings both ways, so a tight low-scoring draw at Toyota Stadium fits best.
09
GLM 5.3
Nagoya Grampus win
2–1
48%
Nagoya won their last two despite poor overall record, while Cerezo's DLDDL run is worse; both concede freely, so a narrow home win at Toyota Stadium with goals both ways fits.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Draw
1–1
42%
Nagoya's 0 clean sheets and Cerezo's 4 suggest both concede but Cerezo defends well; both attacks blunt (4 blanks each). H2H shows tight, low-scoring splits at Toyota, supporting a shared spoils outcome.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

4 of 10 models settled on 1–0. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before kickoff.

  • 1–0
    4 models
  • 2–1
    3 models
  • 1–1
    3 models

Live match centre

Full-time
Nagoya Grampus
Katsuhiro Nakayama 3'
1–1
Cerezo Osaka
Pablo Sabbag 62'
Pro

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Bookmakers vs the AI panel

Bet365 · 2.15 / 3.60 / 3.10
Nagoya Grampus Market 44% · AI 70%
Draw Market 26% · AI 30%
Cerezo Osaka Market 30% · AI 0%

Grey: bookmaker prices as probabilities, margin removed. Lime: share of the 10 AI models picking each result.

Team news

Confirmed lineups: Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka

Nagoya Grampus

3-4-2-1
Michael Petrovic
18 K. Nagai
18 Nagai
22 Y. Kimura
22 Kimura
7 R. Izumi
7 Izumi
27 K. Nakayama
27 Nakayama
14 T. Morishima
14 Morishima
15 S. Inagaki
15 Inagaki
17 T. Uchida
17 Uchida
3 Y. Sato
3 Sato
31 T. Takamine
31 Takamine
70 T. Hara
70 Hara
1 D. Schmidt
1 Schmidt

Bench: T. Kikuchi, H. Koda, T. Koyamatsu, Y. Nogami, M. Ono, A. Pisano, S. Sugiura, S. Tokumoto, Y. Yamagishi

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1
Pablo Machín
19 P. Sabbag
19 Sabbag
8 S. Kagawa
8 Kagawa
77 Lucas Fernandes
77 Fernandes
41 Y. Komi
41 Komi
15 Javi Hernández
15 Hernández
10 S. Tanaka
10 Tanaka
16 H. Okuda
16 Okuda
97 T. Takahashi
97 Takahashi
4 R. Inoue
4 Inoue
27 Dion-Johan Cools
27 Cools
23 Kosuke Nakamura
23 Nakamura

Bench: K. Abe, K. Nagasoe, T. Nakamura, K. Noborizato, K. Okazawa, R. Sakata, S. Sakuragawa, S. Uejo, Y. Yokoyama

Season data

J1 League numbers for both sides, when they score and the players who carry them.

Nagoya Grampus

3-4-2-1
W-D-L
4-1-6
Goals
13-17
Clean sheets
0
Failed to score
4
Best win run
2
Penalties
1/1
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1
W-D-L
3-4-4
Goals
10-17
Clean sheets
4
Failed to score
4
Best win run
1
Penalties
3/3
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Top scorers · J1 League

  1. 1 Léo Ceará Kashima 12
  2. 2 M. Nagakura FC Tokyo 7
  3. 3 Y. Segawa Kashiwa Reysol 7
  4. 4 A. Suzuki Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7
  5. 5 Marcinho Kawasaki Frontale 6
Venue Toyota Stadium, Toyota
Referee Ryo Tanimoto
New at Nagoya Grampus G. Kato (Omiya Ardija), K. Shiihashi (Avispa Fukuoka), T. Takamine (Consadole Sapporo)
New at Cerezo Osaka Javi Hernández (Leganes), P. Sabbag (Al Ahli Tripoli), J. Irvine (FC St. Pauli)
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors Nagoya Grampus

70% of models lean home — the clearest cluster on this fixture before kickoff.

02
Low confidence

Mean 44% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
xG tilt 1.30 vs 0.60

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live match data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Expected-goals tilt and home-field rhythm (see xG on this page) usually explain whether the game stays open or compresses late.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Result check

Actual Draw · AI Nagoya Grampus win

1X2: Miss Score: Off
— Match context

Form, history, team news.

Nagoya Grampus
#12 · 12 PTS · GD -4
Last 5
D W D W W
12 GF · 7 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Cerezo Osaka 1-1 D
  • Kashiwa Reysol 1-3 W
  • Fagiano Okayama 3-3 D
  • Kawasaki Frontale 1-2 W
  • Kitakyushu 1-3 W
Team news

No major injury updates in the current API snapshot.

Cerezo Osaka
#13 · 12 PTS · GD -7
Last 5
D L W D W
8 GF · 8 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Nagoya Grampus 1-1 D
  • Kawasaki Frontale 2-4 L
  • Gainare Tottori 2-3 W
  • Yokohama F. Marinos 0-0 D
  • Fujieda MYFC 1-2 W
Team news

No major injury updates in the current API snapshot.

— Head to head

Last five meetings.

NAG 2 · D 1 · CER 2

CER VS NAG
6-1
HOME WIN
May 17, 2026
NAG VS CER
3-0
HOME WIN
Apr 4, 2026
NAG VS CER
2-1
HOME WIN
Oct 4, 2025
CER VS NAG
1-1
DRAW
Mar 8, 2025
CER VS NAG
2-1
HOME WIN
Jun 30, 2024

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Betting tips (AI-signal view)

Educational only — not financial advice. We summarize how the AI picks cluster so you can cross-check with your own staking plan.

  • Lean with the plurality: when 70% of models side with Nagoya Grampus, treat that as the default script unless late team news breaks the assumptions.
  • Watch the draw lane at 30% — tight J1 League games often compress toward stalemates when both midfields win the second-ball.
  • If you chase “best bets today” narratives, require alignment between the headline pick and the score-frequency table; conflicting signals usually mean thinner edge.

Odds & analysis (implied probabilities)

Implied fair percentages from the model vote share (normalized to 100%) approximate how a balanced market might price the 1X2 if it mirrored this panel — useful for odds analysis homework even though we do not quote sportsbook ticks here.

Nagoya Grampus
~70%
implied lean
Draw
~30%
implied lean
Cerezo Osaka
~0%
implied lean

Over / under prediction (totals)

Model-derived xG sums to 1.90 goals in expectation. A notional totals line near 2.2 is consistent with that pace (rounded for readability). If your sportsbook posts a similar number, compare juice and live team news before deciding either side of the total.

Handicap prediction (spread-style read)

When Nagoya Grampus is priced as the stronger side in the model vote, a −1 handicap narrative only clears if the most common scorelines include multi-goal wins. Cross-check the score-frequency list: if tight one-goal wins dominate, Asian handicaps near pick’em or −0.5 / −0.75 splits often fit the story better than a full −1.5 sell.

BTTS prediction (both teams to score)

With combined offensive weight near 1.90 xG, a heuristic “both teams score” prior lands around 55% yes before defensive adjustments. If several top models forecast clean-sheet pathways, downgrade BTTS enthusiasm even when the raw xG sum looks juicy.

Best bet framing (consensus-led)

Our headline best bet label follows the consensus recommendation: Nagoya Grampus win. Pair that with the confidence band (Low) — high dispersion across models usually argues for smaller stake or pass, even when the headline pick looks tempting for a today prediction card on social.

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka in J1 League? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (1 - 0; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before kickoff.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Nagoya Grampus win, with vote shares roughly 70% / 30% / 0% home, draw, and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

Explore more

Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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— Journal

Articles linked to these clubs or AI forecasting.

Ask multiple AIs about this match.

10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.