ABH 0-1 ALS · 57% AL- 2-0 ALT · 70% AL- 0-2 AL- · 59% AL- 1-1 ALD · 42% AL- 2-0 AL- · 64% ACM 2-1 FER · 49% AND 2-1 RED · 49% CRY 2-1 189 · 52% LEV 1-2 JAG · 48% LIL 1-1 PLZ · 42% NEC 1-2 OMO · 48% REA 2-1 LYO · 52% SPA 1-2 BOU · 54% AAR 0-1 SCB · 57% ABH 0-1 ALS · 57% AL- 2-0 ALT · 70% AL- 0-2 AL- · 59% AL- 1-1 ALD · 42% AL- 2-0 AL- · 64% ACM 2-1 FER · 49% AND 2-1 RED · 49% CRY 2-1 189 · 52% LEV 1-2 JAG · 48% LIL 1-1 PLZ · 42% NEC 1-2 OMO · 48% REA 2-1 LYO · 52% SPA 1-2 BOU · 54% AAR 0-1 SCB · 57%
TuringStats
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NBA · Regular Season Rocket Arena, Cleveland Finished

Cleveland Cavaliers
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder.

Quick answer

Who will win Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

Final score: Cleveland Cavaliers 112–117 Oklahoma City Thunder. Before kickoff, 6 of 10 AI models pick Oklahoma City Thunder to win (60%); the consensus was right. The AI predicted score was 117–109.

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before tip-off. Not betting advice.

10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward Oklahoma City Thunder (6 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 117–109 at 59% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

NBA standings Where Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

Cleveland Cavaliers win 40%

4 / 10 models

Oklahoma City Thunder win 60%

6 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-6 Luna
Oklahoma City Thunder win
111–112
58%
Oklahoma City’s 2-0 start, stronger recent defense, and favorable recent head-to-head record outweigh Cleveland’s home advantage. Both teams have two days’ rest, supporting a competitive, moderately paced game.
02
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Oklahoma City Thunder win
114–119
58%
OKC enters unbeaten with elite defense (97.7 per 100) and SGA leading a deep roster; Cleveland's defense has been leaky in its last three games.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Oklahoma City Thunder win
112–116
58%
Oklahoma City boasts an elite defensive rating (97.7) and recent head-to-head dominance over Cleveland, giving Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder the edge despite being on the road.
04
Grok 4.7
Cleveland Cavaliers win
114–108
58%
Thunder listed without Holmgren and Jalen Williams, blunting their elite defense. Mitchell-Mobley-Harden at Rocket Arena plus equal rest favors Cleveland in a mid-110s game.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Oklahoma City Thunder win
114–115
58%
Thunder are 2-0 with the NBA's best defensive rating and have won three straight H2H meetings, including two in Cleveland. Cavaliers' 120 points allowed per game is a concern.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Cleveland Cavaliers win
119–108
63%
OKC missing Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Wallace (~34 pts combined), severely weakening their defense and depth. Cleveland's Mitchell-Mobley-Harden trio at home should exploit the gaps.
07
Meta Muse Spark 1.3
Cleveland Cavaliers win
117–109
62%
Cavaliers W3 at Rocket Arena with Mitchell scoring well; Thunder missing Williams, Holmgren, Caruso last game despite elite defense. H2H favors Thunder but roster gaps tilt this matchup home.
08
Kimi K3
Oklahoma City Thunder win
110–116
62%
Thunder's elite defense (97.7 rating) and 5-game win streak outweigh Cleveland's home court; OKC has won 3 straight H2H meetings including a 136-104 blowout in January.
09
GLM 5.3
Cleveland Cavaliers win
113–107
55%
Cleveland at home with Mitchell in form (26.7 pts) and OKC missing Holmgren, Williams and Wallace; OKC's elite defense keeps it close, but shorthanded depth tips it to the Cavs.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Oklahoma City Thunder win
112–113
58%
OKC's elite defense (97.7 per 100) and 5-game win streak outweigh Cleveland's home edge, though missing Holmgren and Jalen Williams tightens it. Mitchell's 26.7 ppg form keeps it close.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

1 of 6 models settled on 117–109. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before tip-off.

  • 117–109
    1 model
  • 111–112
    1 model
  • 114–119
    1 model
  • 114–115
    1 model
  • 119–108
    1 model
  • 112–113
    1 model

Live game centre

Final
Cleveland Cavaliers
112–117
Oklahoma City Thunder
Q1Q2Q3Q4 T
Cleveland Cavaliers 30183628 112
Oklahoma City Thunder 26333127 117
30
26
Q1
18
33
Q2
36
31
Q3
28
27
Q4
Pro

Live team stats, the box score and every lead change, minute by minute.

Unlock with Pro in the app

Standings, rest and form

Where both teams stand, how rested they are, who carries the scoring and how their last ten games went.

AI spread
Cavaliers −8
AI total
226
Models picking
40%

From the mean predicted score of every model. Compare with your sportsbook's line.

Star matchup · last 5 games
Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers · G
20.8 PTS 24.8
4.4 REB 4.2
4.8 AST 3.2
32 MIN 32
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Oklahoma City Thunder · G

Cleveland Cavaliers

2 days of rest · 3 games in 7 days

Oklahoma City Thunder

2 days of rest · 3 games in 7 days
Full NBA standings & playoff race →

Did not play last game

Regulars missing from the latest box score: injury, rest or suspension. Check the status before tip-off.

  • Jaylon Tyson
    Jaylon Tyson Cavaliers · G
    21 min · 11 pts a game before
  • Jalen Williams
    Jalen Williams Thunder · G
    33 min · 14.5 pts a game before
  • CH
    Chet Holmgren Thunder · C
    30 min · 11 pts a game before
  • AC
    Alex Caruso Thunder · G
    21 min · 9.5 pts a game before

Season averages per game

Cleveland Cavaliers Oklahoma City Thunder
118.4 Points 109.9
46.3% Field goal % 45%
36.6% 3-point % 34.1%
77.1% Free throw % 80.5%
46 Rebounds 45.9
27.2 Assists 23.3
14.2 Turnovers 15.1
8 Steals 7.5
6 Blocks 6.2

Ratings and four factors

Per 100 possessions. Pace is possessions per game; defence uses points allowed over the last ten.

CavaliersThunder
Offensive rating 112.4 105.9
Defensive rating 110.1 103.8
Net rating +2.2 +2.1
Pace 105.3 103.8
Effective FG % 54.5 51.5
Turnover % 13.5 14.5
Free throw rate 28 24.2
3-point attempt rate 44.6 38.3

Key players · Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Donovan Mitchell
    Donovan MitchellG 20.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 4.8 ast
  • Evan Mobley
    Evan MobleyC 20 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.8 ast
  • James Harden
    James HardenG 16.8 pts · 5.2 reb · 6.6 ast

Averages over the last 5 games.

Key players · Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG 24.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.2 ast
  • Ajay Mitchell
    Ajay MitchellG 19 pts · 3 reb · 3.4 ast
  • Isaiah Hartenstein
    Isaiah HartensteinC 10.6 pts · 10.4 reb · 1.8 ast

Averages over the last 5 games.

Last ten games

Cleveland Cavaliers WLWWWL
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
121 / 116
Total over 220.5
5/6
Total over 230.5
4/6
Scored 110+
5/6
Won by 6+
2/6
Oklahoma City Thunder LLWWWWW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
Points scored / allowed
107.6 / 107.7
Total over 220.5
2/7
Total over 230.5
1/7
Scored 110+
3/7
Won by 6+
4/7

Player photos via Wikimedia Commons: Donovan Mitchell by Erik Drost (CC BY 2.0), Evan Mobley by Erik Drost (CC BY 2.0), James Harden by Erik Drost (CC BY 2.0), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0), Ajay Mitchell by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Isaiah Hartenstein by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Jalen Williams by Daiei Onoguchi (CC BY 4.0), Jaylon Tyson by 2C2K Photography (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Player props

Prop hit rates: Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Each line sits at the player's recent average. Bars show every game, green when he went over.

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · last 6 games
Points o22.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
32
22
26
19
22
15
Rebounds o5.5 1/6 · 17% Ask AI
10
5
5
5
3
4
Assists o4.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
3
4
7
7
3
3
Pts + Reb + Ast o32.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
45
31
38
31
28
22
3-pointers made o2.5 1/6 · 17% Ask AI
2
2
5
2
1
2
Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley

Cleveland Cavaliers · C · last 6 games
Points o19.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
18
20
18
24
11
27
Rebounds o8.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
8
10
10
12
4
5
Assists o3.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
2
4
3
2
7
3
Pts + Reb + Ast o31.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
28
34
31
38
22
35
3-pointers made o2.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
1
2
4
5
0
3
James Harden

James Harden

Cleveland Cavaliers · G · last 6 games
Points o16.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
16
12
19
16
24
13
Rebounds o4.5 4/6 · 67% Ask AI
3
8
5
2
5
6
Assists o6.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
5
7
9
6
4
7
Pts + Reb + Ast o27.5 2/6 · 33% Ask AI
24
27
33
24
33
26
3-pointers made o2.5 4/6 · 67% Ask AI
3
1
3
2
3
3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 7 games
Points o24.5 4/7 · 57% Ask AI
15
32
17
34
26
21
26
Assists o3.5 3/7 · 43% Ask AI
6
4
3
5
3
2
3
Pts + Reb + Ast o31.5 4/7 · 57% Ask AI
21
41
22
45
32
29
33
3-pointers made o1.5 3/7 · 43% Ask AI
1
3
3
1
1
1
3
Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 6 games
Points o16.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
4
12
18
30
29
6
Assists o3.5 4/6 · 67% Ask AI
6
0
4
5
3
5
Pts + Reb + Ast o23.5 3/6 · 50% Ask AI
15
12
28
37
36
14
Jalen Williams

Jalen Williams

Oklahoma City Thunder · G · last 4 games
Points o14.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
16
12
21
8
Rebounds o4.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
4
7
5
2
Assists o3.5 1/4 · 25% Ask AI
3
2
3
5
Pts + Reb + Ast o22.5 2/4 · 50% Ask AI
23
21
29
15

From box scores of each team's recent games. Lines are our reference points, not sportsbook prices.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: quick answers

What is the predicted total for Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
The AI models' mean predicted score is Cleveland Cavaliers 117, Oklahoma City Thunder 109: a projected total of 226 points. Cleveland Cavaliers games went over 230.5 in 4 of the last 6; Oklahoma City Thunder games went over 230.5 in 1 of the last 7.
What is the AI spread pick for Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
The consensus has Cleveland Cavaliers winning by 8 points (117–109), from the mean of every model's predicted score.
Who are the key players in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder?
Leading scorers over the last 5 games. Cleveland Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell (20.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.8 ast), Evan Mobley (20 pts, 8.2 reb, 3.8 ast). Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (24.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.2 ast), Ajay Mitchell (19 pts, 3 reb, 3.4 ast).
Is Cleveland Cavaliers or Oklahoma City Thunder on a back-to-back?
Cleveland Cavaliers have had 2 days of rest; Oklahoma City Thunder have had 2 days of rest.
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors Oklahoma City Thunder

60% of models lean away — the clearest cluster on this fixture before tip-off.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 59% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
Expected points tilt 113.60 vs 112.30

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Rest, recent form and home advantage usually decide whether the favourite wins comfortably or the game stays close; check both teams below.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

Ask with match data Ask without data (free)

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (117 - 109; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before tip-off.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Oklahoma City Thunder win, with vote shares roughly 40% / 60% home and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

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Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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— Journal

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