Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson prediction
Lightweight · 3 rounds ·
The AI models are split 5–5.
The AI consensus missed this one.
Quick answer
TuringStats AI pick for Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson (UFC 333, 24 Oct 2026): the AI models are split 5–5.
Picks locked . The AI models see records, measurements, recent fights and a news brief, never the odds.
How the AIs see it ending
- KO/TKO0
- Submission1
- Decision9
Average stated confidence: 59%
AI vs the bookmakers
- Nurullo Aliev
- 50% AI · 49% books
- Grant Dawson
- 50% AI · 51% books
Books: average of 6 bookmakers, margin removed. The AIs never see these prices.
Ask your own question
Goes the distance? Finish in round 1? All 10 AIs answer side by side.
Ask 10 AIsEvery AI's pick
GPT-6 Luna
Missed Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 56%
Aliev’s unbeaten recent form, size, and improving control wrestling give him a slight edge in a likely takedown-heavy fight. Dawson has more UFC experience and submission danger, but his recent knockout loss raises concern against Aliev’s pressure over three rounds.
Claude Sonnet 5.5
Missed Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 58%
Aliev's unbeaten streak, strong wrestling/grappling, and youth edge Dawson, though Dawson's recent KO loss shows vulnerability while Aliev's control-heavy style likely grinds a decision.
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Winner + method ✓ Grant Dawson by Decision · 58%
Dawson brings a much higher level of UFC experience and proven top-control wrestling against ranked opposition. He should edge out the undefeated Aliev in scrambled grappling sequences over three rounds.
Grok 4.7
Missed Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 58%
Aliev's undefeated UFC run of decision wins and similar wrestling style blunt Dawson's submission threat after his recent KO loss.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Winner + method ✓ Grant Dawson by Decision · 62%
Dawson has a stronger grappling pedigree and more UFC experience, while Aliev lacks finishing ability; Dawson can control the fight on the mat for a decision.
Qwen 3.8 Max
Winner + method ✓ Grant Dawson by Decision · 55%
Dawson's vast experience (28 fights vs 12) and submission threat give him the edge in this grappling-heavy matchup, though Aliev's undefeated record keeps it close.
Mistral Medium 3.5
Winner ✓ Grant Dawson by Submission, round 3 · 70%
Dawson's 12 UFC wins include 8 submissions; Aliev's 0 submission wins and 0 finishes in UFC favor Dawson's grappling edge.
Kimi K3
Missed Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 62%
Undefeated Aliev's relentless wrestling and cardio edge out grappler Dawson, who was KO'd by Torres last year; expect takedown battle going to points in 3 rounds.
GLM 5.3
Missed Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 56%
Aliev's undefeated sambo-style wrestling and control should neutralize Dawson's submission game, though Dawson's finishing threat keeps it close; recent form and Torres' KO of Dawson also favor Aliev.
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Winner + method ✓ Grant Dawson by Decision · 55%
Both are grapplers, but Dawson's wrestling and submission threat (recent R3 sub) edge Aliev's decision-heavy style in a grinding matchup likely to go the distance.
Tale of the tape
| Nurullo Aliev | Grant Dawson | |
|---|---|---|
| 11-0-0 | Record | – |
| 2 | KO/TKO wins | – |
| 0 | Submission wins | – |
| 0 | Lost by KO/TKO | – |
| 5' 10' | Height | – |
| 72' | Reach | – |
| Orthodox | Stance | – |
| Kaizen MMA | Team | – |
Nurullo Aliev: last fights
- Lvs Grant DawsonPoints R3 · Oct 2026
- Wvs Mike DavisPoints R3 · Jul 2026
- Wvs Shem RockPoints R3 · Nov 2025
- Wvs Joe SoleckiPoints R3 · Jan 2025
Grant Dawson: last fights
- Wvs Nurullo AlievPoints R3 · Oct 2026
- Wvs Mateusz RebeckiSUB R3 · May 2026
- Lvs Manuel TorresKO R1 · Dec 2025
- Wvs Diego FerreiraPoints R3 · Jan 2025
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FAQ
Who will win Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson?
The AI models are split 5–5. Bookmakers make Grant Dawson the favourite at 51%.
How will Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson end?
The AI models' method picks: 9 Decision, 1 Submission.
Who won Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson?
Grant Dawson won by Points in round 3. The AI consensus was wrong.
← All UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev picks · AI UFC record
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