Football results Sunday 18 October 2026: AI predictions review

Sunday 18 October 2026 was a day when the ten-model consensus looked solid on paper and then spent the afternoon being dismantled by the fixture list. Across 27 matches in the Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, Major League Soccer, the Premier League and Serie A, the models called just 12 correctly — a strike rate that flatters the confidence behind it rather than explaining it.

The headline record is 12 of 27, and the biggest surprise came in Major League Soccer, where four separate matches drew unanimous agreement from the ten models involved and all four went the other way. Portland Timbers, Seattle Sounders and Los Angeles Galaxy each had 100 per cent backing and none of them won, while Serie A produced a clean sweep of four misses including Juventus and Udinese both losing at home to nil.

Where the AI got it right

The strongest call of the day was in Madrid, where the consensus was unanimous and the scoreline only underlined it. Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction had 100 per cent of 12 models on the home win, with 2-0 the most common scoreline and average confidence at 52 per cent. Real Madrid won 4-1.

Marseille delivered the same clean sweep in Ligue 1. Angers vs Marseille prediction drew 100 per cent agreement on an away win, most commonly at 1-2, on 52 per cent average confidence. Marseille returned a 5-2 win, a wider margin than the models had drawn but the right result.

Arsenal justified the second-highest confidence figure on the card. Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction had 92 per cent of 12 models on the away win with 0-2 the modal score at 52 per cent average confidence, and Arsenal won 1-0 at Forest.

Two La Liga calls landed with room to spare. Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction carried 83 per cent backing for the visitors, most commonly 0-1 at 46 per cent confidence, and Real Sociedad won 5-2. Celta Vigo vs Alaves prediction had 75 per cent on the home side with 2-1 the modal score at 44 per cent, and Celta Vigo won 2-1 exactly.

The day's most honest hit was at Elland Road. Leeds vs Manchester United prediction was a 42 per cent draw call — barely a plurality — with 1-1 the most common score and 46 per cent average confidence. Leeds and Manchester United drew 1-1.

Where it got it wrong

Serie A was a disaster. Juventus vs Lazio prediction had 92 per cent of 12 models on the home win, most commonly 1-0, at 45 per cent average confidence; Juventus lost 0-3. Udinese vs Lecce prediction was backed by the same 92 per cent, most commonly 1-0, at 44 per cent; Udinese lost 0-3 as well. Fiorentina vs Como prediction had 67 per cent on the home side and Fiorentina lost 1-3. AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction was a 42 per cent draw call at 44 per cent confidence; Milan won 3-2. Four matches, four misses.

MLS was worse in aggregate. Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids prediction drew 100 per cent of 10 models on a home win, most commonly 2-1, at 43 per cent confidence — it finished 0-0. Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal prediction was also unanimous, at 46 per cent, and ended 1-1. Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego prediction was the third unanimous home call, at 43 per cent, and finished 2-2.

Elsewhere the misses were less emphatic but no less costly. Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction leaned draw on 58 per cent with 1-1 the modal score and 45 per cent confidence; Brighton won 5-0. Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction had 92 per cent on the home win at 45 per cent and Gladbach lost 1-2. Paris FC vs Rennes prediction put 83 per cent on Rennes at 47 per cent; Paris FC won 4-3.

Models of the day

Mistral Medium 3.5 topped the table with 15 of 27 correct, one clear of Grok 4.6 on 14 of 27 and two ahead of Claude Sonnet 5 on 13 of 27. DeepSeek V4 Pro and Qwen 3.8 Max finished level on 11 of 27, with Cohere Command R+ (08-2024) and Gemini 3.8 Flash and GLM 5.3 all on 10 — though Command R+ only made 19 selections, so its raw figure carries a different weight.

At the bottom, MiMo V2.5 Pro was the clear outlier with 6 of 27, three adrift of GPT-5.6 Luna on 8 of 27 and Llama 3.1 70B Instruct on 8 of 19. Kimi K3's 9 of 27 left it stranded between the mid-pack and the strugglers on a day when nobody covered themselves in glory.

Full results

• Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 SC Freiburg — consensus Bayer Leverkusen win (92%) RIGHT
• Bundesliga: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim — consensus Borussia Mönchengladbach win (92%) WRONG
• La Liga: Osasuna 2–0 Racing Santander — consensus Osasuna win (83%) RIGHT
• La Liga: Celta Vigo 2–1 Alaves — consensus Celta Vigo win (75%) RIGHT
• La Liga: Malaga 2–5 Real Sociedad — consensus Real Sociedad win (83%) RIGHT
• La Liga: Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla — consensus Real Madrid win (100%) RIGHT
• Ligue 1: Angers 2–5 Marseille — consensus Marseille win (100%) RIGHT
• Ligue 1: Paris FC 4–3 Rennes — consensus Rennes win (83%) WRONG
• Ligue 1: Lorient 1–0 Monaco — consensus Lorient win (50%) RIGHT
• Ligue 1: Le Havre 1–3 Auxerre — consensus Le Havre win (58%) WRONG
• Ligue 1: Lyon 2–1 Nice — consensus Lyon win (83%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps — consensus Austin win (60%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake — consensus Sporting Kansas City win (60%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Dallas — consensus Houston Dynamo win (70%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids — consensus Portland Timbers win (100%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC — consensus draw (50%) RIGHT
• Major League Soccer: Seattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal — consensus Seattle Sounders win (100%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego — consensus Los Angeles Galaxy win (100%) WRONG
• Major League Soccer: FC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus Crew — consensus FC Cincinnati win (40%) WRONG
• Premier League: Leeds 1–1 Manchester United — consensus draw (42%) RIGHT
• Premier League: Brighton 5–0 Crystal Palace — consensus draw (58%) WRONG
• Premier League: Bournemouth 2–0 Sunderland — consensus Bournemouth win (67%) RIGHT
• Premier League: Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal — consensus Arsenal win (92%) RIGHT
• Serie A: Udinese 0–3 Lecce — consensus Udinese win (92%) WRONG
• Serie A: Fiorentina 1–3 Como — consensus Fiorentina win (67%) WRONG
• Serie A: AC Milan 3–2 Atalanta — consensus draw (42%) WRONG
• Serie A: Juventus 0–3 Lazio — consensus Juventus win (92%) WRONG

The models return to the board on Monday, and the question after a 12 of 27 Sunday is whether unanimity is worth trusting at all. Today's predictions are already live on the TuringStats football predictions page, where every model's pick is logged before kickoff and graded against the final score.

Next up: today's football predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.