Football results Friday 23 October 2026: AI predictions review

Friday's card ran to 19 matches across 13 competitions, from the Allsvenskan to the Saudi Pro League, and the ten-model consensus landed on the winner in 11 of them. That is a modest day at the desk: just under 58 per cent, built on a near-perfect run in Saudi Arabia and undermined by a string of results that the models had called with total, unanimous certainty.

The biggest surprise was not a scoreline but the certainty attached to it. Twelve models backed VfB Stuttgart at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach, 100 per cent of the panel, with a 2-0 scoreline as the most common forecast and average confidence at 61 per cent. Stuttgart lost 3-2. Elfsborg versus Malmo drew 0-0 after all ten models picked the home win, and Vasteras were beaten at home by Halmstad by the same unanimous margin.

Friday's card finished 11 of 19 for the consensus panel.

Where the AI got it right

The Saudi Pro League carried the day. Four of the five matches in the division went the way of the consensus, and three of those were unanimous calls. Al-Nassr were backed by all ten models to win away at Al-Faisaly, most commonly 0-2, and the scoreline finished 1-3. Al-Ittihad were likewise unanimous against Al Diriyah, forecast 2-0 at 60 per cent average confidence, and delivered exactly that. Al-Ahli Jeddah were the strongest single call of the set at 62 per cent, and their 4-1 win over Al Khaleej Saihat never threatened the verdict. The one split call, Al-Qadisiyah versus Al-Hilal, went to the models by a 50 per cent majority and finished 2-3. See the Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Nassr prediction and the Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Diriyah prediction for the two cleanest examples.

Middlesbrough produced the most emphatic correct result of the night. The panel was unanimous on an away win, most commonly 1-2, at only 53 per cent average confidence, and Middlesbrough won 5-1 at Bolton. The Bolton vs Middlesbrough prediction was right on the outcome and nowhere near the margin.

In Portugal, Vitória SC were picked by 80 per cent of models at a strikingly low 43 per cent average confidence, with a narrow 1-0 the most common score. The result was 5-0. The Vitória SC vs Maritimo prediction was the day's largest gap between forecast score and actual score.

Torino gave the panel a 3-2 home win over Monza against a 2-1 forecast, a 67 per cent majority and 51 per cent confidence, while Cruzeiro's 1-0 win over Remo came from a unanimous call at 60 per cent. Both are logged under the Torino vs Monza prediction.

Where it got it wrong

Eight misses, and the pattern is uncomfortable: six of them came from a unanimous or near-unanimous panel. Stuttgart was the heaviest. Twelve models, 100 per cent agreement, 61 per cent average confidence, a 2-0 forecast, and a 2-3 defeat to Mönchengladbach. The VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction is the one to read first if you want to know where the day went.

Elfsborg were backed by all ten models against Malmo at 53 per cent confidence; the match finished 0-0. Vasteras were backed by all ten at 62 per cent, the most common score 2-0; Halmstad won 2-1. Alanyaspor were unanimous at 50 per cent with a 1-0 forecast; Kocaelispor won 2-1. Three unanimous home calls, three failures.

The split calls did not rescue the record either. Alaves were the choice of 92 per cent of twelve models against Malaga at 58 per cent confidence; the game ended 1-1. Stade Brestois were picked by 67 per cent at 50 per cent confidence and lost 1-2 to Nice. Ipswich drew 1-1 with Nottingham Forest after 75 per cent of twelve models and a 2-1 forecast backed them. Gimnasia M. were a 60 per cent majority at 48 per cent confidence; Platense won 2-1. Only Gimnasia L.P., after 100 per cent agreement at just 48 per cent confidence, held up with a 2-0 win over Sarmiento Junin.

Models of the day

Claude Sonnet 5 and Kimi K3 share the top of the table at 11 of 19 correct, matching the consensus exactly. Neither beat the panel; both matched it. DeepSeek V4 Pro and MiMo V2.6 Pro finished one behind at 10 of 19.

A cluster of five sat at 9 of 19: GPT-5.6 Luna, Mistral Medium 3.5, Qwen 3.8 Max, Gemini 3.8 Flash and GLM 5.3. Grok 4.6 was the weakest of the full-card models at 8 of 19, three adrift of the leaders and two behind the consensus.

The two partial entries are not comparable and should not be read as collapses or triumphs. Llama 3.1 70B Instruct ran 5 matches and got 2 right; Cohere Command R+ (08-2024) ran 5 and got 1.

Full results

• Allsvenskan: IF Elfsborg 0-0 Malmo FF — consensus IF Elfsborg win (100%) WRONG
• Allsvenskan: Vasteras SK FK 1-2 Halmstad — consensus Vasteras SK FK win (100%) WRONG
• Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach — consensus VfB Stuttgart win (100%) WRONG
• Championship: Bolton 1-5 Middlesbrough — consensus Middlesbrough win (100%) RIGHT
• Eredivisie: GO Ahead Eagles 3-2 Telstar — consensus GO Ahead Eagles win (80%) RIGHT
• La Liga: Alaves 1-1 Malaga — consensus Alaves win (92%) WRONG
• Liga Profesional Argentina: Gimnasia L.P. 2-0 Sarmiento Junin — consensus Gimnasia L.P. win (100%) RIGHT
• Liga Profesional Argentina: Gimnasia M. 1-2 Platense — consensus Gimnasia M. win (60%) WRONG
• Ligue 1: Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Nice — consensus Stade Brestois 29 win (67%) WRONG
• Premier League: Ipswich 1-1 Nottingham Forest — consensus Ipswich win (75%) WRONG
• Primeira Liga: Vitória SC 5-0 Maritimo — consensus Vitória SC win (80%) RIGHT
• Pro League: Al-Faisaly FC 1-3 Al-Nassr — consensus Al-Nassr win (100%) RIGHT
• Pro League: Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 Al Diriyah — consensus Al-Ittihad FC win (100%) RIGHT
• Pro League: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — consensus Al-Hilal Saudi FC win (50%) RIGHT
• Pro League: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-1 Al Khaleej Saihat — consensus Al-Ahli Jeddah win (100%) RIGHT
• Serie A: Torino 3-2 Monza — consensus Torino win (67%) RIGHT
• Serie A: Cruzeiro 1-0 Remo — consensus Cruzeiro win (100%) RIGHT
• Süper Lig: Alanyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor — consensus Alanyaspor win (100%) WRONG
• Superliga: Randers FC 1-3 Brondby — consensus Brondby win (60%) RIGHT

Saturday's slate is already loaded and the models have run it. The full card, the consensus picks and the per-model breakdown are on the today's football predictions page.

Next up: today's football predictions from the same panel, and the results archive with every graded call. Forecasts are informational only.