AL- 1-0 AL- · 44% KAI 1-2 PAN · 54% AL- 1-1 ALS · 45% JUV 1-0 REN · 56% ARA 0-2 AZA · 57% DIN 1-0 NEC · 54% FER 2-0 TOR · 59% LEC 1-1 SUN · 46% OFI 0-2 BAY · 61% UNI 1-0 HAP · 54% STU 1-2 MAR · 48% FKC 1-2 FCC · 56% GET 1-2 FCL · 50% FCI 0-1 MJA · 53% AL- 1-0 AL- · 44% KAI 1-2 PAN · 54% AL- 1-1 ALS · 45% JUV 1-0 REN · 56% ARA 0-2 AZA · 57% DIN 1-0 NEC · 54% FER 2-0 TOR · 59% LEC 1-1 SUN · 46% OFI 0-2 BAY · 61% UNI 1-0 HAP · 54% STU 1-2 MAR · 48% FKC 1-2 FCC · 56% GET 1-2 FCL · 50% FCI 0-1 MJA · 53%
Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23 Oct 25, 2026 · 00:30 · UTC Toyota Stadium, Frisco Not Started

FC Dallas
vs
San Jose Earthquakes.

Quick answer

Who will win FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?

7 of 10 AI models pick FC Dallas to win (70%). The mean predicted score is 2–1 at 49% average confidence (medium).

Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before kickoff. Not betting advice.

Head-to-head history → FC Dallas form San Jose Earthquakes form

10 AI models read this match. The plurality on 1X2 leans toward FC Dallas (7 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 2–1 at 49% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.

Who do you think will win?

Vote before kick-off and compare with AI

Major League Soccer table Where FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes stand right now
— Consensus

Where the panel lands.

Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.

FC Dallas win 70%

7 / 10 models

Draw 30%

3 / 10 models

San Jose Earthquakes win 0%

0 / 10 models

— Model breakdown

10 picks. Receipts attached.

Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.

#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-5.6 Luna
FC Dallas win
2–1
53%
Both teams have strong scoring records and San Jose's recent draws suggest a competitive game, but FC Dallas has home advantage, Musa's elite output, and won the latest meeting.
02
Claude Sonnet 5
FC Dallas win
2–1
48%
Dallas slightly better record and Musa's form at home, plus recent H2H trend favors Dallas, but both defenses leak goals keeping it close.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
FC Dallas win
2–1
47%
Both sides possess prolific goalscorers in Musa and Judd, but Dallas's solid home record gives them a slight edge in an entertaining contest.
04
Grok 4.6
FC Dallas win
2–1
48%
Dallas home with Musa (20 goals) and a slightly stronger season record; San Jose’s last five are draw-heavy but both sides score freely, so a narrow home win fits.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Draw
1–1
46%
Two evenly matched sides with similar records and scoring rates; San Jose's five-game unbeaten run and Dallas's mixed home form point to a tight, low-scoring stalemate.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
FC Dallas win
2–1
48%
Musa's 20-goal form and home edge favour Dallas, but San Jose's four draws in five and consistent scoring keep it tight.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
Draw
1–1
58%
Tight H2H history, both teams scoring but inconsistent. Dallas home edge offset by San Jose's recent draws.
08
Kimi K3
FC Dallas win
2–1
52%
Dallas at home with Musa (20 goals) edges it; San Jose draw-heavy lately but concedes 1.4/game, and every recent H2H saw both teams score in open, high-total games.
09
GLM 5.3
FC Dallas win
2–1
52%
Near-even sides (14W vs 13W), but Dallas at Toyota Stadium with Musa's 20 goals and a 3-2 H2H win in May; both defenses concede, so a narrow home win fits.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Draw
2–2
42%
Both sides attack well (55 and 52 goals) and leak late; H2H shows four straight meetings with both scoring and three draws/wins split. Dallas' home edge is modest versus San Jose's solid away form.
— Scoreline frequency

How often each scoreline showed up.

7 of 10 models settled on 2–1. That convergence is a strong scoreline signal—many fixtures fan out wider across the panel.

  • 2–1
    7 models
  • 1–1
    2 models
  • 2–2
    1 model

Bookmakers vs the AI panel

Bet365 · 1.70 / 4.10 / 4.10
FC Dallas Market 55% · AI 70%
Draw Market 22% · AI 30%
San Jose Earthquakes Market 23% · AI 0%

Grey: bookmaker prices as probabilities, margin removed. Lime: share of the 10 AI models picking each result.

Team news

Predicted lineups: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes

Each side's last starting XI, with players ruled out of this match marked. The confirmed lineups replace this about an hour before kickoff.

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1 · XI v Houston Dynamo, 18 Oct
Eric Quill
9 P. Musa
9 Musa
7 D. Job
7 Job
8 P. Delgado
8 Delgado
77 B. Kamungo
77 Kamungo
12 C. Cappis
12 Cappis
17 Ramiro
17 Ramiro
14 H. Johansson
14 Johansson
32 N. Norris
32 Norris
25 S. Ibeagha
25 Ibeagha
18 S. Moore
18 Moore
42 Daniel
42 Daniel

San Jose Earthquakes

5-3-2 · XI v Nashville SC, 18 Oct
B. Arena
11 T. Werner
11 Werner
Out
19 P. Judd
19 Judd
23 E. Löwen
23 Löwen
14 R. Vieira
14 Vieira
34 Beau Leroux
34 Leroux
2 J. Ricketts
2 Ricketts
18 R. Roberts
18 Roberts
4 D. Romney
4 Romney
5 D. Munie
5 Munie
17 Jack Jasinski
17 Jasinski
1 A. Gunn
1 Gunn

1 of this XI is ruled out of this match or no longer at the club.

Season data

Major League Soccer numbers for both sides, when they score and the players who carry them.

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1
W-D-L
14-9-7
Goals
55-47
Clean sheets
7
Failed to score
7
Best win run
3
Penalties
6/7
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

San Jose Earthquakes

4-2-3-1
W-D-L
13-9-8
Goals
52-42
Clean sheets
7
Failed to score
4
Best win run
6
Penalties
4/7
When they score
15'30'45'60'75'90'
When they concede
15'30'45'60'75'90'

Key players · FC Dallas

  • P. Musa 20 G · 5 A · 26 apps
  • J. Valiente 2 G · 9 A · 28 apps

Key players · San Jose Earthquakes

  • P. Judd 16 G · 2 A · 28 apps

Top scorers · Major League Soccer

  1. 1 L. Messi Inter Miami 25
  2. 2 P. Musa FC Dallas 20
  3. 3 M. Iloski Philadelphia Union 19
  4. 4 Rafael Navarro St. Louis City 18
  5. 5 D. Bouanga Los Angeles FC 17
Venue Toyota Stadium, Frisco
New at FC Dallas C. Holstad (Rhode Island), Daniel (San Jose Earthquakes), E. Sali (Al Riyadh)
New at San Jose Earthquakes E. Löwen (St. Louis City), L. Jovanović (Adelaide United), A. Gunn (Nottingham Forest)
— Aggregated insights

What’s moving the panel.

01
Consensus favors FC Dallas

70% of models lean home — the clearest cluster on this fixture before kickoff.

02
Medium confidence

Mean 49% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.

03
xG tilt 1.80 vs 1.10

Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live match data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.

04
Match context

Expected-goals tilt and home-field rhythm (see xG on this page) usually explain whether the game stays open or compresses late.

Ask the Council about this match

Pro

10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.

— Match context

Form, history, team news.

FC Dallas
#3 · 51 PTS · GD +8
Last 5
D W L W D
6 GF · 5 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Houston Dynamo 2-2 D
  • Seattle Sounders 1-0 W
  • Charlotte 3-2 L
  • Los Angeles FC 1-0 W
  • Austin 0-0 D
Team news
S. Sarver — Red Card L. Farrington — Lower-Body Injury Geovane Jesus — Knee Injury A. A. Julio Santos — Lower-Body Injury Kaick — Personal Reasons
San Jose Earthquakes
#4 · 48 PTS · GD +10
Last 5
D D D W W
7 GF · 4 GA
Recent fixtures
  • Nashville SC 1-1 D
  • Real Salt Lake 1-1 D
  • Colorado Rapids 1-1 D
  • Portland Timbers 3-1 W
  • Houston Dynamo 1-0 W
Team news
N. Adimabua — Hernia D. Jones — Achilles Tendon Injury P. Judd — Yellow Cards J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza — Injury D. Johnson — Lower-Body Injury B. Kikanovic — Lower-Body Injury J. Skahan — Lower-Body Injury N. Tsakiris — Upper-Body Injury
— Head to head

Last five meetings.

FCD 2 · D 1 · SAN 2

SAN VS FCD
2-3
AWAY WIN
May 17, 2026
SAN VS FCD
2-2
DRAW
Jul 17, 2025
FCD VS SAN
2-4
AWAY WIN
Jun 26, 2025
SAN VS FCD
3-2
HOME WIN
Oct 3, 2024
FCD VS SAN
2-1
HOME WIN
Feb 25, 2024

Confidence trend

Cumulative average confidence in table order.

First model Last model

Betting tips (AI-signal view)

Educational only — not financial advice. We summarize how the AI picks cluster so you can cross-check with your own staking plan.

  • Lean with the plurality: when 70% of models side with FC Dallas, treat that as the default script unless late team news breaks the assumptions.
  • Watch the draw lane at 30% — tight Major League Soccer games often compress toward stalemates when both midfields win the second-ball.
  • If you chase “best bets today” narratives, require alignment between the headline pick and the score-frequency table; conflicting signals usually mean thinner edge.

Odds & analysis (implied probabilities)

Implied fair percentages from the model vote share (normalized to 100%) approximate how a balanced market might price the 1X2 if it mirrored this panel — useful for odds analysis homework even though we do not quote sportsbook ticks here.

FC Dallas
~70%
implied lean
Draw
~30%
implied lean
San Jose Earthquakes
~0%
implied lean

Over / under prediction (totals)

Model-derived xG sums to 2.90 goals in expectation. A notional totals line near 3.2 is consistent with that pace (rounded for readability). If your sportsbook posts a similar number, compare juice and live team news before deciding either side of the total.

Handicap prediction (spread-style read)

When FC Dallas is priced as the stronger side in the model vote, a −1 handicap narrative only clears if the most common scorelines include multi-goal wins. Cross-check the score-frequency list: if tight one-goal wins dominate, Asian handicaps near pick’em or −0.5 / −0.75 splits often fit the story better than a full −1.5 sell.

BTTS prediction (both teams to score)

With combined offensive weight near 2.90 xG, a heuristic “both teams score” prior lands around 55% yes before defensive adjustments. If several top models forecast clean-sheet pathways, downgrade BTTS enthusiasm even when the raw xG sum looks juicy.

Best bet framing (consensus-led)

Our headline best bet label follows the consensus recommendation: FC Dallas win. Pair that with the confidence band (Medium) — high dispersion across models usually argues for smaller stake or pass, even when the headline pick looks tempting for a today prediction card on social.

Match overview

Looking for a today prediction on FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (2 - 1; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before kickoff.

This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is FC Dallas win, with vote shares roughly 70% / 30% / 0% home, draw, and away (rounded).

If you are asking who will win FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.

Explore more

Keep browsing today prediction coverage and league hubs.

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— Journal

Articles linked to these clubs or AI forecasting.

Ask multiple AIs about this match.

10 models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and our model picks attached — not from memory. Then ask follow-ups to the same council.