MOL 1-0 KAZ · 47% SER 0-1 GER · 58% NET 2-1 GRE · 50% SLO 2-0 FAR · 60% BUL 0-1 ICE · 55% LIE 0-1 AZE · 52% LUX 0-1 EST · 47% AND 0-0 GIB · 39% SLO 0-1 SWI · 56% SCO 2-0 FYR · 64% SAL 0-3 CEL · 69% INT 1-2 SAN · 50% KOS 1-0 ISR · 50% NOR 2-1 WAL · 54% MOL 1-0 KAZ · 47% SER 0-1 GER · 58% NET 2-1 GRE · 50% SLO 2-0 FAR · 60% BUL 0-1 ICE · 55% LIE 0-1 AZE · 52% LUX 0-1 EST · 47% AND 0-0 GIB · 39% SLO 0-1 SWI · 56% SCO 2-0 FYR · 64% SAL 0-3 CEL · 69% INT 1-2 SAN · 50% KOS 1-0 ISR · 50% NOR 2-1 WAL · 54%
Politics · Kalshi · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Will Jensen Huang testify in front of Congress before Dec 2026?

Will Jensen Huang testify in front of Congress?

10 AI models
40% yes

3 lean yes · 7 lean no

Kalshi when AIs voted
26% yes

Now 10%

What each AI says

GPT-6.1 Sol

58% yes

Likely yes — Huang’s reported agreement to testify and the explicit report of an appearance before Thanksgiving give a modest edge to a qualifying appearance before December 1. Closed-door testimony or an authorized transcribed interview can satisfy the rules, but the conflicting December 1 and December 3 dates create substantial risk that his appearance falls outside the deadline.

Claude Opus 5.5

22% yes

Probably not — the reported dates (Dec 1 House, Dec 3 Senate) fall on or after the Dec 1 cutoff, and the market requires testimony before Dec 1. There is some vague 'before Thanksgiving' reporting, but the schedule and format are still being negotiated, and high-profile closed-door appearances often slip. A closed-door transcribed interview held quietly before Thanksgiving could still resolve this Yes.

Gemini 4 Argon

46% yes

Slightly unlikely — while Jensen Huang has reportedly agreed to testify and the resolution rules broadly allow for closed-door transcribed interviews or remote appearances, the timeline before the December 1 cutoff is very tight. With the Thanksgiving recess occupying late November and key committees specifically requesting December 1 and December 3 dates, negotiations over format and scheduling are likely to push the formal proceeding into early December. However, this would resolve YES if Huang fulfills the agreement via a quiet, closed-door deposition or virtual interview before Thanksgiving as some reports suggest.

Grok 4.7

28% yes

Probably not — as of mid-November he has only agreed in principle, while the concrete summons point to Dec. 1 and Dec. 3, which miss a strict before-Dec-1 cutoff, and nothing has been held yet. A last-minute closed-door session before Thanksgiving could still qualify and prove this wrong.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

78% yes

Likely yes — multiple credible reports indicate Jensen Huang has agreed to testify before Congress, with timing targeted before Thanksgiving or early December, and the market window runs through Nov 30. The main risk is that scheduling slips past the cutoff or the appearance is delayed by legal wrangling, but the current momentum strongly favors a qualifying testimony.

Tencent Hy4

8% yes

Probably not — the market closes at 2026-12-01 15:00 UTC, while the freshest reports point to a requested or expected appearance before Thanksgiving but most specific dates are Dec. 1 or Dec. 3, with scheduling and format still unsettled. A closed-door deposition or transcribed interview would count, but there is no public confirmation of a completed appearance by the deadline, and Dec. 3 would be too late. The main thing that could prove me wrong is an accelerated or already-scheduled Dec. 1 closed-door testimony occurring before 15:00 UTC, especially if it is not publicly reported until afterward.

Meta Muse Spark 1.3

38% yes

Probably not — agreed to testify but reported dates (Dec 1 and Dec 3) are on/after the Dec 1 cutoff, so timing misses. A vaguer before-Thanksgiving report keeps Yes live, and closed-door sworn sessions count under rules. Wrong if schedule is moved up to late November as negotiations finalize.

NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Ultra

70% yes

Likely yes — multiple congressional committees have formally requested Huang's testimony with specific December 2026 dates (Dec 1 for House, Dec 3 for Senate), and reports indicate he has agreed to testify before Thanksgiving. The closed-door, sworn format described matches the resolution criteria for qualifying testimony. The main risk is scheduling delays or a last-minute agreement to provide written responses instead of appearing, which would not count as testimony under the market rules.

GLM 5.3

12% yes

Probably not — the reported dates (House Dec 1, Senate Dec 3) fall on or after the market close of Dec 1 15:00 UTC, and no completed appearance has been confirmed. A closed-door deposition could slip earlier, and committees sometimes accelerate schedules under political pressure, which is the main way this could resolve YES. But with negotiation over format still ongoing, an appearance before Dec 1 morning (10am ET) is unlikely.

MiMo V2.6 Pro

35% yes

Probably not — reported dates (Dec 1 and Dec 3) fall on or after the Dec 1 15:00 UTC market close, and the hearing is still being negotiated. However, the rules are broad (closed-door, sworn, transcribed interviews count), and there's a chance a session occurs earlier or that a Dec 1 morning appearance precedes the 15:00 cutoff. Key uncertainty: whether the committee schedules anything before the deadline versus slipping to the requested dates.

News the AIs read (Nov 13)
- Jensen Huang is reported to have agreed to testify before Congress, but the reporting does not yet confirm a completed hearing or exact appearance date. - The most specific public timing reported is **before Thanksgiving 2026**, with one report saying the Senate Banking Committee requested **Dec. 3, 2026** and another saying House committees summoned him for **Dec. 1, 2026**. - Several outlets say the testimony would be **behind closed doors**, likely **sworn, transcribed, and video recorded**, but the final format and schedule are still being worked out. - The request is tied to a congressional inquiry involving Huang’s reported relationship with a woman suspected of links to Chinese intelligence and concerns about Nvidia-related national security issues. - A public confirmation that Huang has actually appeared before Congress by **2026-12-01** is not yet in the available reports.
Resolution rules
If Jensen Huang testifies in front of Congress before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Payout criteria For the purposes of this Contract, "testified" means that Jensen Huang appeared before Congress (in-person, remotely, or virtually), was sworn in or affirmed, or otherwise appeared in an official proceeding where testimony was compelled or authorized by the committee, and provided substantive answers to questions regarding the subject matter of the hearing. If Jensen Huang provides at least one substantive answer to a question about the hearing's subject matter — even if Jensen Huang invokes the Fifth Amendment or another privilege in response to all other questions — the Contract resolves "Yes." Depositions conducted under congressional authority. Testifying in a closed-door or classified session. If Jensen Huang appears for a transcribed interview, deposition, or hearing that is not conducted under oath but is officially authorized by the committee and conducted under penalty of making false statements to Congress (18 U.S.C. § 1001), such appearance qualifies for purposes of this Contract, provided Jensen Huang provides at least one substantive answer to a substantive question about the hearing's subject matter. Doesn't count for payout: Statements made outside of an official committee hearing, deposition, or transcribed interview, such as informal staff-level conversations, proffer sessions with executive branch officials, media events on Capitol grounds, personal statements to individual members of Congress, or written correspondence with committee members or staff.

Market prices: Kalshi. TuringStats is not affiliated with Kalshi.

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