MOL 1-0 KAZ · 47% SER 0-1 GER · 58% NET 2-1 GRE · 50% SLO 2-0 FAR · 60% BUL 0-1 ICE · 55% LIE 0-1 AZE · 52% LUX 0-1 EST · 47% AND 0-0 GIB · 39% SLO 0-1 SWI · 56% SCO 2-0 FYR · 64% SAL 0-3 CEL · 69% INT 1-2 SAN · 50% KOS 1-0 ISR · 50% NOR 2-1 WAL · 54% MOL 1-0 KAZ · 47% SER 0-1 GER · 58% NET 2-1 GRE · 50% SLO 2-0 FAR · 60% BUL 0-1 ICE · 55% LIE 0-1 AZE · 52% LUX 0-1 EST · 47% AND 0-0 GIB · 39% SLO 0-1 SWI · 56% SCO 2-0 FYR · 64% SAL 0-3 CEL · 69% INT 1-2 SAN · 50% KOS 1-0 ISR · 50% NOR 2-1 WAL · 54%
Politics · Polymarket · Closes Dec 1, 2026

Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?

Next Press Secretary announced by...?

10 AI models
73% yes

10 lean yes · 0 lean no

Polymarket when AIs voted
41% yes

Now 31%

The AIs are 32 points more bullish than Polymarket.

What each AI says

GPT-6 Luna

78% yes

Likely yes — Trump has reportedly offered the role to Dana White, and the vacant position makes a permanent appointment before November 30 plausible. The main uncertainty is whether that offer turns into a qualifying public announcement in time; continued delays or an interim-only appointment would resolve No.

Claude Sonnet 5.5

50% yes

Toss-up — Trump said he offered the job to Dana White, but the White House hasn't confirmed it, and White is unlikely to leave UFC. A replacement within three weeks is plausible given how visible the role is, but an offer isn't an announcement and the post could stay vacant or go to an acting person. A White acceptance, or a quick pick of someone else, would make this resolve Yes.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

84% yes

Likely yes — Trump is actively making offers and the vacancy has already persisted for several weeks, leaving ample time across the remainder of November for a formal announcement. The high-profile nature of the role and intense media scrutiny typically force a swift selection once names surface. The primary risk is that candidate rejections or prolonged deliberation push a finalized permanent appointment into December.

Grok 4.7

62% yes

Probably yes — the vacancy has already lasted weeks and Trump’s reported offer to Dana White shows active effort to name a permanent replacement before month’s end. Acceptance is still unconfirmed, so a decline plus further delay is the main way this misses the deadline.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

82% yes

Likely yes — Trump has already publicly said he offered the job to Dana White, and the White House rarely leaves a high-visibility role like press secretary unfilled for long. With over three weeks until the November 30 deadline, a formal announcement—whether White or someone else—is probable. The main risk is that the offer falls through or Trump delays a permanent pick past the cutoff.

Qwen 3.8 Max

75% yes

Likely yes — Trump has reportedly already offered the role to Dana White as of November 7, and with 22 days remaining before the deadline, there is strong momentum toward a formal announcement. The main risk is that Dana White declines (she runs UFC) and the search resets, but the administration faces significant pressure to fill this high-profile vacancy after weeks without a press secretary.

Meta Muse Spark 1.3

65% yes

Likely yes — the vacancy has already lasted ~3 weeks and Trump publicly named Dana White as offered on Nov 7, showing active selection. With 22 days left to Nov 30, pressure to name a permanent replacement is high. Could be wrong if White declines and vetting/chaos drags past the deadline as with prior turnover.

Kimi K3

78% yes

Likely yes — Trump has already publicly floated offering the job to Dana White as of 2026-11-07, and with the role vacant since mid-October after a five-day tenure, the administration has strong incentive to name a permanent replacement quickly. Three-plus weeks until Nov 30 is ample time for a formal announcement, and Trump typically moves fast on high-profile personnel picks. Main risk: the Dana White offer falls through or the search drags past the deadline, or an interim/acting appointment is made instead, which wouldn't qualify.

GLM 5.3

90% yes

Likely yes — Trump has already publicly said he offered the job to Dana White, which is close to a qualifying announcement, and the post sits empty after Zacharia's exit. With 22 days left and the administration under pressure to fill a vacant podium role, a formal announcement is highly probable. The main risk is that the offer stalls or the pick is designated 'acting,' which would not qualify.

MiMo V2.6 Pro

62% yes

Likely yes — Trump has already publicly said he offered the job to Dana White, and a formal announcement of a permanent replacement before Nov 30 seems more probable than not given the vacancy has persisted since mid-October. The main risk is that the offer isn't accepted or the White House drags it out past the deadline, and the rules exclude acting/interim picks, so a caretaker appointment wouldn't count. If the Dana White offer stalls or is declined, the compressed timeline makes a qualifying announcement less certain.

News the AIs read (Nov 8)
- The White House press secretary role was still unfilled on 2026-11-08, after Katie Zacharia left in mid-October 2026 following a five-day tenure. - On 2026-11-07, multiple outlets reported that Donald Trump said he had offered the job to Dana White; several reports said the White House had not immediately confirmed the move. - That reported offer is the latest confirmed announcement-like development in the record provided, but it does not yet appear to be a formal White House appointment announcement. - The market’s key question is whether Trump or the Trump administration makes a qualifying public announcement of a new permanent press secretary by 2026-11-30, not whether someone is later sworn in.[query] - No confirmed announcement replacing Zacharia with a permanent press secretary was visible in the supplied results as of 2026-11-08.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a new White House Press Secretary to replace Katie Zacharia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An individual announced as an acting or interim Press Secretary will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, regardless of when the new Press Secretary is sworn in or begins serving. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market prices: Polymarket. TuringStats is not affiliated with Polymarket.

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