Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Likely yes — Feijóo is the reported front-runner after the November 29 election, and the market allows well over a year for him to secure a confidence vote and take office. The election outcome and parliamentary arithmetic remain uncertain, and a hung Congress or rival coalition could keep Sánchez in office or produce another prime minister.

Probably yes — Feijóo leads the polls and PP plus Vox is near a majority, so he is the most likely next investiture winner. The market window also runs to March 2028, which leaves room for a long process. The main risk is that the left bloc, with the regional parties, gets enough seats to re-invest Sánchez, or that PP and Vox fall short.

Likely yes — Feijóo leads the opposition PP, which is polling as the front-runner ahead of the November 2026 general election, giving him the clearest path to forming the next government. However, Spanish parliamentary politics remains highly fragmented, and if PP and Vox fall short of an absolute majority, Pedro Sánchez or another left-bloc candidate could assemble a coalition to retain power.

Probably yes — Feijóo is the PP opposition leader and current front-runner ahead of the 29 Nov 2026 election, with investiture only possible after the new Congress meets in late December. Fragmented Spanish politics, a possible Vox-dependent majority, and the chance of deadlock or a later government by 2028 still leave a substantial chance he is not the next sworn-in PM.

Likely yes — Feijóo is the clear front-runner in current reporting, with the PP expected to lead the next government after the 2026-11-29 election. The main uncertainty is whether he can secure enough parliamentary support without Vox or if post-election bargaining stalls, but the resolution window extends to March 2028, giving ample time for an investiture.

Likely yes — Feijóo is the PP leader and widely described as the front-runner, with the PP expected to win the most seats in the November 29 election, and he is already preparing coalition scenarios including with Vox. The main risk is that the PP fails to secure enough seats for a viable coalition, or that internal party dynamics shift, though both seem relatively unlikely given current polling trends and his entrenched position as party leader.

Likely yes — Feijóo is the opposition PP leader and widely described as front-runner ahead of the Nov 29 election amid government crisis over resignations and train-crash fallout. With Sánchez still caretaker and investiture not until after Dec 23, polls and momentum favor a PP-led government. I could be wrong if PP falls short of a PP+Vox majority and Sánchez repeats a 2023-style coalition to block him.

Likely yes — Feijóo is the front-runner heading into the 2026-11-29 election, and as PP leader he would be first in line to attempt an investiture if the right-of-center bloc wins a workable majority. The main risks are that PP plus Vox falls short of 176 seats, that coalition talks with Vox collapse, or that Sánchez assembles an alternative majority, any of which could push resolution to another candidate or 'Other' by the 2028 deadline. Polls and reporting describe him as favored but not confirmed, so this is meaningful but not overwhelming.

Likely yes — Feijóo is the front-runner after the November 29 election, but he needs a parliamentary vote of confidence, and his path depends on coalition math with Vox or others, which has historically been difficult for him (as in 2023). A hung parliament or a Sánchez-aligned alternative government could make this resolve 'Other' or for another candidate.

Likely yes — Feijóo and PP are the clear front-runners after the Nov 29 election, and he has until March 2028 to be sworn in, giving ample time for coalition talks. But a majority isn't guaranteed: PP may need Vox or regionalist support, and a repeat deadlock or a surprise Sánchez-led alternative remains possible. The main risk to my call is an inconclusive result or failed investiture that drags on or produces a different compromise candidate.