MOL 1-0 KAZ · 47% SER 0-1 GER · 58% NET 2-1 GRE · 50% SLO 2-0 FAR · 60% BUL 0-1 ICE · 55% LIE 0-1 AZE · 52% LUX 0-1 EST · 47% AND 0-0 GIB · 39% SLO 0-1 SWI · 56% SCO 2-0 FYR · 64% SAL 0-3 CEL · 69% INT 1-2 SAN · 50% KOS 1-0 ISR · 50% NOR 2-1 WAL · 54% MOL 1-0 KAZ · 47% SER 0-1 GER · 58% NET 2-1 GRE · 50% SLO 2-0 FAR · 60% BUL 0-1 ICE · 55% LIE 0-1 AZE · 52% LUX 0-1 EST · 47% AND 0-0 GIB · 39% SLO 0-1 SWI · 56% SCO 2-0 FYR · 64% SAL 0-3 CEL · 69% INT 1-2 SAN · 50% KOS 1-0 ISR · 50% NOR 2-1 WAL · 54%
Politics · Kalshi · Closes Dec 1, 2026

How many times will Donald Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026?

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026?

10 AI models
30% yes

1 lean yes · 9 lean no

Kalshi when AIs voted
35% yes

Now 86%

What each AI says

GPT-6 Luna

8% yes

Probably not — the confirmed visits are Nov. 1 and Nov. 6–7, leaving at least three additional separate trips needed to reach five in the month. The main thing that could prove this wrong is a pattern of frequent later-November trips, or unreported visits before Nov. 1.

Claude Sonnet 5.5

20% yes

Probably not — only about 2 trips (Nov 1 and Nov 6-7) are confirmed, so 3 more separate trips are needed in the last three weeks. His pace is about 2-4 trips a month, and Thanksgiving could add one, but reaching 5 is a stretch. A burst of weekend trips from mid-November could prove me wrong.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

28% yes

Probably not — reaching 5 or more distinct visits in November requires Trump to depart and return at least three more times over the remaining three weeks of the month. While he frequently spends weekends at Mar-a-Lago during November, typical presidential travel patterns involve 3 to 4 weekend trips rather than 5 separate visits unless broken up by multiple mid-week hops. He could easily reach 5 if campaign or official travel causes him to leave and return multiple times during single holiday stretches like Thanksgiving.

Grok 4.7

35% yes

Probably not — only two distinct November arrivals are confirmed so far (around Nov 1 and Nov 6), and reaching five would require three more separate trips in the remaining three weeks. Weekend and holiday patterns make extra visits plausible, but his overall pace since 2025 is closer to one or two per month outside peak stretches. A string of short Palm Beach turnarounds before month-end could still push the total to five or more.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

28% yes

Probably not — based on current evidence, only two separate Mar-a-Lago visits are confirmed for November 2026 (Nov 1 and Nov 6–7). Reaching 5+ trips would require at least three more distinct visits before month-end, which seems unlikely given his established pattern of roughly weekly or biweekly stays. The main risk is an unconfirmed early-November arrival before Nov 1 or a burst of additional trips later in the month.

Qwen 3.8 Max

38% yes

Probably not — Trump has made 2 confirmed visits in the first 8 days of November (Nov 1 and Nov 6-7), so he'd need at least 3 more in the remaining 22 days to reach 5. While his winter-season pattern includes frequent weekend trips and there are ~3 weekends left, hitting 5 total would require near-weekly visits plus a midweek trip, which is on the high end of his typical monthly frequency. The main risk to this call is that Trump sometimes clusters visits closely during holiday periods (Thanksgiving falls on Nov 26), which could push the count higher.

Meta Muse Spark 1.3

18% yes

Probably not — only 2 distinct trips are confirmed so far (Nov 1 and Nov 6-7) with 22 days left, and 5+ would require an unusually busy ~1.4x weekly pace. Trump's typical weekend pattern plus a Thanksgiving stay likely gets to 3-4, not 5. I could be wrong if same-day leave-and-return hops are counted as separate visits, which would inflate the count fast.

Kimi K3

28% yes

Probably not — confirmed facts show only 2 separate November trips so far (Nov. 1 and Nov. 6-7), and reaching 5 would require three more distinct visits in the remaining ~22 days. Trump's pattern of roughly weekly Mar-a-Lago trips during the season makes 4 total plausible, but 5+ demands an unusually dense travel month. A surprise uptick in trips, or unconfirmed earlier November arrivals, could push it over the line.

GLM 5.3

60% yes

Likely yes — the threshold is 5+ trips, and Trump has already made 2 confirmed visits by Nov 7 with three more weekends plus the Thanksgiving holiday remaining, when he reliably travels to Palm Beach. If he skips a weekend or combines trips, the count could land at 3-4; extended stays (e.g., staying over through Thanksgiving week) could also reduce the trip count below 5.

MiMo V2.6 Pro

32% yes

Probably not — only two separate Mar-a-Lago trips are confirmed so far in November 2026 (Nov 1 and Nov 6-7), so reaching 5+ would require three more distinct arrivals before month's end. That's plausible given his typical Palm Beach frequency and the holiday season, but it's a stretch against only 22 remaining days. What could prove me wrong: a heavy Thanksgiving-to-early-December stretch or additional unreported trips already logged earlier in the month.

News the AIs read (Nov 8)
- Trump was already in Mar-a-Lago on **Nov. 1, 2026** and departed that day; he then returned on **Nov. 6, 2026** after a Cape Canaveral stop, with flight restrictions and road closures in Palm Beach tied to that visit. - His public schedule also shows he was at Mar-a-Lago on **Nov. 7, 2026**, including departures from and returns to the club during the day, so that counts as part of the same ongoing visit if he remained there overnight. - One report on **Nov. 2, 2026** said the Nov. 6 trip would be his **fourth** Mar-a-Lago visit of the season and his **31st** since Jan. 2025, but that is season-to-date, not the full November count. - A Nov. 4 notice said South Ocean Boulevard would close starting **Nov. 6, 2026** for an expected Trump visit, reinforcing that a Palm Beach stay was planned then. - Confirmed November 2026 Mar-a-Lago visits visible in the gathered facts are **at least 2 separate trips so far**: **Nov. 1** and **Nov. 6-7**; a full November total cannot be confirmed yet from the available facts. - No source here confirms whether there were earlier November arrivals before **Nov. 1**, or whether Trump will make additional trips before **Nov. 30, 2026**. - Because the question asks **how many times** in **Nov. 2026**, the result will only be fully knowable after the month ends or with a complete travel log. - DECIDED_BY: NONE
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump makes exactly 5 or more trips to Mar-a-Lago in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A single visit begins when Donald Trump arrives in Mar-a-Lago and ends when Donald Trump has left Mar-a-Lago. A visit need not end to be included — i.e., if Nov 2026 ends with Donald Trump still there, that visit counts for the purposes of the count. If Donald Trump is in Mar-a-Lago at the beginning of Nov 2026, that will count as a visit. Multiple separate visits during Nov 2026 count individually.

Market prices: Kalshi. TuringStats is not affiliated with Kalshi.

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