AL- 0-2 AL- · 60% AL- 2-0 ALD · 60% IFE 2-1 MAL · 53% VAS 2-0 HAL · 62% RAN 1-2 BRO · 46% ALA 1-0 KOC · 50% GOA 2-1 TEL · 54% AL- 1-2 AL- · 43% VFB 2-0 BOR · 62% STA 2-1 NIC · 50% TOR 2-1 MON · 52% KOR 0-1 KVM · 52% IPS 2-1 NOT · 47% ALA 1-0 MAL · 60% AL- 0-2 AL- · 60% AL- 2-0 ALD · 60% IFE 2-1 MAL · 53% VAS 2-0 HAL · 62% RAN 1-2 BRO · 46% ALA 1-0 KOC · 50% GOA 2-1 TEL · 54% AL- 1-2 AL- · 43% VFB 2-0 BOR · 62% STA 2-1 NIC · 50% TOR 2-1 MON · 52% KOR 0-1 KVM · 52% IPS 2-1 NOT · 47% ALA 1-0 MAL · 60%

Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson prediction

Lightweight · 3 rounds · Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC

NANurullo Aliev

Nurullo Aliev

11-0-0 · "Tajik Eagle"

VS
GDGrant Dawson

Grant Dawson

5 AIs5 AIs

The AI models are split 5–5.

How the AIs see it ending

  • KO/TKO0
  • Submission1
  • Decision9

Average stated confidence: 59%

AI vs the bookmakers

Nurullo Aliev
50% AI · 48% books
Grant Dawson
50% AI · 52% books

Books: average of 6 bookmakers, margin removed. The AIs never see these prices.

Ask your own question

Goes the distance? Finish in round 1? All 10 AIs answer side by side.

Ask 10 AIs

Every AI's pick

GPT-5.6 Luna

Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 56%

Aliev’s unbeaten recent form, size, and improving control wrestling give him a slight edge in a likely takedown-heavy fight. Dawson has more UFC experience and submission danger, but his recent knockout loss raises concern against Aliev’s pressure over three rounds.

Claude Sonnet 5

Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 58%

Aliev's unbeaten streak, strong wrestling/grappling, and youth edge Dawson, though Dawson's recent KO loss shows vulnerability while Aliev's control-heavy style likely grinds a decision.

Gemini 3.8 Flash

Grant Dawson by Decision · 58%

Dawson brings a much higher level of UFC experience and proven top-control wrestling against ranked opposition. He should edge out the undefeated Aliev in scrambled grappling sequences over three rounds.

Grok 4.6

Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 58%

Aliev's undefeated UFC run of decision wins and similar wrestling style blunt Dawson's submission threat after his recent KO loss.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Grant Dawson by Decision · 62%

Dawson has a stronger grappling pedigree and more UFC experience, while Aliev lacks finishing ability; Dawson can control the fight on the mat for a decision.

Qwen 3.8 Max

Grant Dawson by Decision · 55%

Dawson's vast experience (28 fights vs 12) and submission threat give him the edge in this grappling-heavy matchup, though Aliev's undefeated record keeps it close.

Mistral Medium 3.5

Grant Dawson by Submission, round 3 · 70%

Dawson's 12 UFC wins include 8 submissions; Aliev's 0 submission wins and 0 finishes in UFC favor Dawson's grappling edge.

Kimi K3

Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 62%

Undefeated Aliev's relentless wrestling and cardio edge out grappler Dawson, who was KO'd by Torres last year; expect takedown battle going to points in 3 rounds.

GLM 5.3

Nurullo Aliev by Decision · 56%

Aliev's undefeated sambo-style wrestling and control should neutralize Dawson's submission game, though Dawson's finishing threat keeps it close; recent form and Torres' KO of Dawson also favor Aliev.

MiMo V2.6 Pro

Grant Dawson by Decision · 55%

Both are grapplers, but Dawson's wrestling and submission threat (recent R3 sub) edge Aliev's decision-heavy style in a grinding matchup likely to go the distance.

Tale of the tape

Nurullo AlievGrant Dawson
11-0-0Record–
2KO/TKO wins–
0Submission wins–
0Lost by KO/TKO–
5' 10'Height–
72'Reach–
OrthodoxStance–
Kaizen MMATeam–

Nurullo Aliev: last fights

  • Wvs Mike DavisPoints R3 · Jul 2026
  • Wvs Shem RockPoints R3 · Nov 2025
  • Wvs Joe SoleckiPoints R3 · Jan 2025

Grant Dawson: last fights

  • Wvs Mateusz RebeckiSUB R3 · May 2026
  • Lvs Manuel TorresKO R1 · Dec 2025
  • Wvs Diego FerreiraPoints R3 · Jan 2025

FAQ

Who will win Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson?

The AI models are split 5–5. Bookmakers make Grant Dawson the favourite at 52%.

How will Nurullo Aliev vs Grant Dawson end?

The AI models' method picks: 9 Decision, 1 Submission.

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