Stephon Castle
San Antonio Spurs · G · last 5 games
NBA · Regular Season
Oct 24, 2026 · 01:30
Moody Center, Austin
Not Started
San Antonio Spurs
vs
Houston Rockets.
Quick answer
Who will win San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets?
8 of 10 AI models pick Houston Rockets to win (80%). The mean predicted score is 119–120 at 58% average confidence (medium).
Consensus of independent AI models on TuringStats, updated before tip-off. Not betting advice.
10 AI models read this game. The plurality on the winner leans toward Houston Rockets (8 of 10 models). The mean predicted score (rounded from all models) is 119–120 at 58% mean confidence (Medium band) — see the strip and table below.
Who do you think will win?
Vote before kick-off and compare with AI
— Consensus
Where the panel lands.
Vote share across models. Read this strip first, then the line-by-line table.
San Antonio Spurs win
20%
2 / 10 models
Houston Rockets win
80%
8 / 10 models
— Model breakdown
10 picks. Receipts attached.
Line-by-line comparison of each system’s call.
Read: Houston Rockets win
#
Model
Pick
Score
Conf.
Reasoning
01
GPT-5.6 Luna
San Antonio Spurs win
119–116
54%
San Antonio has won four of the last five meetings and owns the stronger defensive profile, while Houston’s superior offense and recent scoring form should keep this close. Three days’ rest helps the Spurs at the Austin venue.
02
Claude Sonnet 5
Houston Rockets win
114–120
60%
Rockets' superior offensive efficiency (116.3 vs 107.1 per 100) and better recent form should outweigh Spurs' extra rest; Wembanyama's limited minutes temper San Antonio's ceiling.
03
Gemini 3.8 Flash
Houston Rockets win
111–116
56%
Houston features a more potent offensive rating (116.3) and better ball security against San Antonio's high turnover rate, giving the Rockets a slight edge in Austin.
04
Grok 4.6
Houston Rockets win
112–118
57%
Rockets’ better offense (116.3 per 100) and 122-ppg form outweigh Spurs’ defense; Austin venue and Wemby’s limited minutes weaken home edge.
05
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Houston Rockets win
116–117
58%
Houston's offense is stronger per 100 possessions and recent form, while San Antonio's high turnover rate and lower eFG% point to a Rockets edge despite the Spurs' home venue.
06
Qwen 3.8 Max
Houston Rockets win
119–120
58%
Houston's superior offensive efficiency (116.3 OffRtg, 55.5% eFG, low turnover rate) outweighs San Antonio's defensive edge and extra rest day in this early-season matchup.
07
Mistral Medium 3.5
Houston Rockets win
119–120
62%
Rockets' superior offense (116.3 ORtg) and recent form (122 pp100) outweigh Spurs' home edge; both teams well-rested.
08
Kimi K3
Houston Rockets win
118–124
62%
Houston's superior offensive efficiency (116.3 vs 107.1 per 100) and lower turnover rate (16.2% vs 19.7%) overcome San Antonio's rest advantage and elite defense. Rockets' faster pace and better shooting form secure the road win.
09
GLM 5.3
San Antonio Spurs win
113–108
55%
Spurs' elite defense (99.5 per 100) and 3 days' rest counter Houston's stronger offense; Spurs won three of the last five meetings, including a 145-120 home blowout.
10
MiMo V2.6 Pro
Houston Rockets win
114–115
58%
Rockets' superior offense (116.3 vs 107.1 per 100) and better shooting outweigh Spurs' home edge; both teams rested, but Houston's recent scoring form and lower turnover rate favor them in a close contest.
— Scoreline frequency
How often each scoreline showed up.
2 of 7 models settled on 119–120. The rest of the list shows where dissent still lives before tip-off.
-
119–120
2 models
-
114–115
1 model
-
119–116
1 model
-
114–120
1 model
-
116–117
1 model
-
112–118
1 model
Standings, rest and form
Where both teams stand, how rested they are, who carries the scoring and how their last ten games went.
AI spread
Rockets −1
AI total
239
Models picking
80%
From the mean predicted score of every model. Compare with your sportsbook's line.
Star matchup · last 3 games
Stephon Castle
San Antonio Spurs · G
16.4
PTS
18.7
5.4
REB
2
3.4
AST
2
23
MIN
25
Kevin Durant
Houston Rockets · F
San Antonio Spurs
3 days of rest
· 1 games in 7 days
Houston Rockets
2 days of rest
· 1 games in 7 days
Season averages per game
San Antonio Spurs
Houston Rockets
112.7
Points
123.5
43.4%
Field goal %
48.4%
33.9%
3-point %
37.8%
80.7%
Free throw %
70.2%
49.2
Rebounds
46
24.7
Assists
30.3
19.8
Turnovers
16.8
8.5
Steals
11.3
7.2
Blocks
4.5
Ratings and four factors
Per 100 possessions. Pace is possessions per game; defence uses points allowed over the last ten.
| Spurs | Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive rating | 105.3 | 119.7 |
| Defensive rating | 101.1 | 108.5 |
| Net rating | +4.2 | +11.1 |
| Pace | 107 | 103.2 |
| Effective FG % | 50.9 | 57.2 |
| Turnover % | 18.5 | 16.2 |
| Free throw rate | 32.4 | 28.3 |
| 3-point attempt rate | 44.7 | 46.7 |
Key players · San Antonio Spurs
-
Stephon CastleG 16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 3.4 ast
-
DH
D. HarperG 15.4 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
-
Victor WembanyamaF 13.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 3 ast
Averages over the last 5 games.
Key players · Houston Rockets
-
Kevin DurantF 18.7 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
-
AS
Alperen SengunC 17.7 pts · 9 reb · 6.7 ast
-
Jabari Smith Jr.F 15 pts · 6 reb · 1.5 ast
Averages over the last 3 games.
Last ten games
San Antonio Spurs
LWWLL
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
- Points scored / allowed
- 113.4 / 108.2
- Total over 220.5
- 3/5
- Total over 230.5
- 1/5
- Scored 110+
- 3/5
- Won by 6+
- 2/5
Houston Rockets
WWLW
Winning and losing margins, oldest to newest
- Points scored / allowed
- 123.5 / 112
- Total over 220.5
- 3/4
- Total over 230.5
- 3/4
- Scored 110+
- 4/4
- Won by 6+
- 3/4
Player photos via Wikimedia Commons: Stephon Castle by Petsbikes (CC BY-SA 4.0), Victor Wembanyama by Frenchieinportland (CC BY 4.0), Kevin Durant by Clément Bardot (CC BY-SA 4.0), Jabari Smith Jr. by Chensiyuan (CC BY-SA 4.0).
Player props
Prop hit rates: San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets
Each line sits at the player's recent average. Bars show every game, green when he went over.
D. Harper
San Antonio Spurs · G · last 5 games
Victor Wembanyama
San Antonio Spurs · F · last 5 games
Kevin Durant
Houston Rockets · F · last 3 games
Alperen Sengun
Houston Rockets · C · last 3 games
Jabari Smith Jr.
Houston Rockets · F · last 4 games
From box scores of each team's recent games. Lines are our reference points, not sportsbook prices.
San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets: quick answers
- What is the predicted total for San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets?
- The AI models' mean predicted score is San Antonio Spurs 119, Houston Rockets 120: a projected total of 239 points. San Antonio Spurs games went over 230.5 in 1 of the last 5; Houston Rockets games went over 230.5 in 3 of the last 4.
- What is the AI spread pick for San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets?
- The consensus has Houston Rockets winning by 1 points (120–119), from the mean of every model's predicted score.
- Who are the key players in San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets?
- Leading scorers over the last 3 games. San Antonio Spurs: Stephon Castle (16.4 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.4 ast), D. Harper (15.4 pts, 4 reb, 3.6 ast). Houston Rockets: Kevin Durant (18.7 pts, 2 reb, 2 ast), Alperen Sengun (17.7 pts, 9 reb, 6.7 ast).
- Is San Antonio Spurs or Houston Rockets on a back-to-back?
- San Antonio Spurs have had 3 days of rest; Houston Rockets have had 2 days of rest.
— Aggregated insights
What’s moving the panel.
01
Consensus favors Houston Rockets
80% of models lean away — the clearest cluster on this fixture before tip-off.
02
Medium confidence
Mean 58% across the panel with real dispersion — compare unanimous calls vs split tickets in the model table.
03
Expected points tilt 115.50 vs 117.40
Derived from predicted scorelines (model means), not live game data — useful for pace vs vote-share sanity checks.
04
Match context
Rest, recent form and home advantage usually decide whether the favourite wins comfortably or the game stays close; check both teams below.
Ask the Council about this match
Pro10 AI models vote yes or no with this match's last-5 form, head-to-head, live status and the model picks above attached — not from memory. Then keep asking the same council follow-ups.
Confidence trend
Cumulative average confidence in table order.
First model
Last model
Match overview
Looking for a today prediction on San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets in NBA? TuringStats aggregates multiple AI scorelines into one readable page so you can see who the models favor, the mean predicted score shown in the hero (119 - 120; the frequency chart below lists the most common exact scorelines), and implied splits before tip-off.
This prediction hub is written for readers comparing betting tips-style language with transparent model votes — not a single black-box call. The headline read is Houston Rockets win, with vote shares roughly 20% / 80% home and away (rounded).
If you are asking who will win San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets, start with the consensus strip and model table, then cross-check form and injuries in Match context further down — that order keeps the strongest signals first.
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